Week 6 NFL Player Props

Last week ended with a disappointing 1-2 overall record. On the bright side, I did highlight a player prop at +290 that hit, so score one for moral victories. This week I am looking to get back on track with a pair of matchups I am targeting and one I am avoiding. Here are a few of my favorite Week 6 NFL Player props. As always, these prices may change, so adjust all plays as you see fit.

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Week 6 NFL Player Props

Woody Marks, Houston Texans: UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-140, Fanatics)
Woody Marks, Houston Texans: UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-130, TheScoreBet)
Woody Marks, Houston Texans: UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Woody Marks, Houston Texans: UNDER 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

I have discussed probabilities and implied odds in previous weeks when offering multiple lines on a particular player prop. Because of that, I won’t get too deep in the woods (no pun intended) this time around. But I’m not expecting Woody Marks to hit any of his rushing yardage thresholds when the Texans face the Jacksonville Jaguars in London on Sunday. If you decide to tail, go with the line that makes the most sense for you. For what it’s worth, I went with the FanDuel line. This will likely be a bit sweaty, as Marks should get the bulk of the work in Houston’s backfield. David Montgomery will be out, and the Texans have little behind Marks in the way of competition. But Marks draws a brutal matchup in his first start of the season.

Jacksonville leads the NFL in total rushing yards allowed and yards per carry. They also lead the league in advanced metrics, such as EPA (expected points added) against the run and adjusted line yards allowed. The Jaguars have yet to allow any player to record 40 or more rushing yards against them this season. Houston’s offensive line is one of the worst in the league, including ranking 31^st in adjusted line yards. This is not a situation where the Texans are likely to force the issue on the ground. I expect Houston to lean on the passing game if they want to win. If Marks surpasses his rushing yardage thresholds, he’ll have to do it on sheer volume. I am willing to bet against that happening in this matchup.

Malik Nabers, New York Giants: OVER 5.5 Receptions (-125, Fanatics, BetRivers/Bally’s)

No, Malik Nabers won’t earn 20 targets again this week when the New York Giants host the New Orleans Saints. However, he and tight end Isaiah Likely are Jameis Winston’s go-to targets in the passing game. Winston has targeted Nabers on 31.4 percent of his passes in his three starts. I am expecting more of the same when Nabers faces his hometown team.

The Saints have been poor defensively across the board. They rank 26^th in EPA and 27^th in DVOA against the pass. They also rank 30^th in DVOA against opposing number-one receivers. New Orleans is also a bottom-two run defense. However, given Cam Skattebo’s fumbling issues, I am not convinced New York will lean on him even in a favorable matchup. Instead, I am expecting another heavy dose of Nabers.

Pro Football Focus has graded 111 cornerbacks who have played at least 20 percent of coverage snaps. Neither of the Saints’ outside corners ranks in the top 70 in coverage. New York has also been using Nabers out of the slot more recently, with excellent results. Nabers ran a season-high 14 routes from the slot last week. Albeit in limited reps, he has averaged 4.42 yards per route run from the slot this year. New Orleans has used Jonas Sanker in the slot a fair amount defensively. He has also graded poorly, allowing 24 receptions on 27 targets. I believe Nabers will remain heavily involved. Expect him to finish with at least six receptions in Week 6.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: OVER 268.5 Passing Yards (-113, BetRivers/Bally’s)

Jordan Love has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde performer in terms of passing yardage so far this year. He has thrown for at least 300 passing yards in three of his five games. In his other two, he failed to hit 200 yards. This week’s game in Dallas against the Cowboys should give the quarterback plenty of chances to air it out. Love’s passing yardage mark is easily one of my favorite Week 6 NFL player props.

To say Dallas has a bad pass defense might be an insult to bad things. SumerSports has been tracking EPA since 2022. Last year’s New York Jets defense had the worst season-long EPA against the pass during that stretch, at 0.20. That was the only defense in NFL history that failed to record an interception over a full season. This year’s Cowboys have a 0.36 EPA versus the pass. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s offensive EPA as a rushing unit is on pace to be the worst in the last five years. Last week, Green Bay called 60 percent designed passes (excluding kneel-downs) in a game they won by 24 points. I am expecting a very pass-heavy offensive game plan from the Packers on Sunday night. So I am picking Jordan Love to surpass his passing-yardage threshold in this game.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!