Last week, the Jaguars won in nearly impossible fashion in London, and the Texans dominated the Titans. Unfortunately, the Falcons blew a lead and lost in overtime to the Ravens. It would have been great to advance with the Falcons as their future value is very low. On the bright side, I recommended fading the Cowboys, and they lost. A lot of the survivor community was on the Cowboys, with some pools getting cut in half after last Thursday.
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Week 6 NFL Survivor Picks
New England Patriots (-7) vs. New York Jets
Drake Maye is finally getting it together. After a terrible start against three great defenses, Maye and the Patriots beat the Bills in Buffalo and destroyed the Raiders at home. Maye went from just a single passing TD and six interceptions in his first three games to seven passing TDs and just one interception in his last two. The quality of opponent and defense has to be considered here, of course. The Bills and Raiders pass defenses rank in the bottom-10 in DVOA. The Jets have been great against the pass, though, ranking 11th in DVOA and allowing just 875 passing yards – fourth lowest in the league. There is some concern here.
Ultimately, though, the Patriots look more legitimate than the Jets. Drake Maye was nearly the MVP after an incredible sophomore season and looks much more comfortable now. Geno Smith and the Jets have played well and rank 22nd in DVOA. However, beating up on the Titans and Browns while losing to a terrible Packers team does not inspire much confidence. This is a divisional matchup against a solid opponent with a good pass defense, but the risk does not outweigh the reward in my opinion.
The next home game worth using the Patriots is Week 18 against the Dolphins. Week 18 is always tricky because teams may be resting players as they have nothing to lose or gain for the playoffs. It would be wise to look at matchups until weeks 16 or 17 rather than all the way to 18. The Patriots also have away games against the Jets and Dolphins, but a divisional road matchup is just too risky to consider. This may be the last good time to use the Patriots. The Patriots will be a fairly popular pick this week, but they are still worth picking in your survivor pool in Week 6.
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) vs. Washington Commanders
Not all 5-0 teams are made the same. While the Minnesota Vikings boast a league-best defense, their offense ranks 30th in DVOA. The San Francisco 49ers are first on offense and fourth on defense in DVOA. That should give them plenty of future value, but they face a difficult schedule. Teams like the Cowboys, Vikings, Seahawks, Rams, and Chiefs rank top-10 in total DVOA. The Cowboys are the lone exception, as their fifth-ranked offense is canceled out by the league’s worst defense. Many people would still give the 49ers a real shot in all of those games, but they do limit the safer spots. The 49ers host the Raiders in Week 9 and visit the Giants in Week 13, but there are other good options those weeks.
The Commanders are 27th in DVOA and just tied the Giants in spectacularly awful fashion. Washington’s offense looked good with the return of QB Jayden Daniels, but their defense is holding them back. The Commanders have yet to win a game with Daniels under center, though all three games were against division rivals and the two losses were on the road. Speculating on how this Commanders team will look against non-divisional opponents is moot, though. The 49ers are light-years ahead of them and playing at home. They can take care of business here. While they have decent future value, I’d rather use them in a great matchup than risk them against a more competent opponent unless I’m in a very big pool.
Indianapolis Colts (-7) vs. Tennessee Titans
The Colts will be picked a lot this week, but they are arguably the worst teams that you can have any sort of faith in this week. Ranking 21st in DVOA and fresh off a 34-22 loss to the Steelers, the Colts return home with some hope. The Tennessee Titans come to town and look like the worst team in football. Cam Ward’s best passing game was for 222 yards and a single TD, and he has a passer rating of just 77.2. While Ward has been good at not turning the ball over or getting sacked much this year, he just doesn’t offer upside to win almost any week.
The Titans are surely going to find a win this season, and it could very well be against a division rival. However, the red flags are just brutal, and we should view the Titans as an ideal target almost every week. The only other time you may want to use the Colts is in Week 10 when they host the Dolphins. Miami looks awful as well, but Malik Willis looks more like the type of QB who can win a game. He nearly beat the Bengals last week and had multiple opportunities to beat the Vikings in Minnesota two weeks ago.
Check out all of our Week 6 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings
Survivor Picks to Fade
Los Angeles Rams (-12.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams are the biggest favorites of the week and will be a popular pick in survivor pools. After the Cowboys upset destroying plenty of entries last week, people will be happy to take a safer pick this week. I don’t disagree. Despite a 2-3 record and defensive struggles, the Rams still look like one of the better teams in the league. Offensively, the Rams are averaging 28 points since their 27-7 loss to the 49ers in Week 1. Matthew Stafford overcame a slow start and has thrown for nine TDs in his last four games, though he has thrown five interceptions in that span. The Rams offense ranks 6th in DVOA.
Nobody needs to sell you on the Rams, but their future value is one of the best in the league. There are anywhere from five to seven realistic games to use the Rams after Week 6, and they are good enough to beat anyone with their offense. Even if you have to use them against another good team, you’d rather it be them than, say, the Colts. There is some upset possibility here. This is a divisional game against an above-average Cardinals offense. I am not fading the Rams purely because of the divisional matchup. I am not banking on their defensive struggles either, as the quality of opponent has been high in their losses. The Rams defense ranks seventh in DVOA. The Rams are a good pick, but they’re worth saving while the rest of your pool uses them this week.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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