Week 7 NFL Player Props

We have been stacking winning weeks in the NFL player props market for most of the season thus far. Going 2-1 in four out of six weeks may not be particularly flashy, but it keeps the lights on. The season-long record now sits at 10-8 as we head into Week 7. This week’s NFL slate offers several chances to build on that foundation. These prices have already moved in some instances and may continue to do so between now and Sunday. Make sure you are shopping for the best price available and playing within your means. Here are some of my favorite Week 7 NFL player props.

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Week 7 NFL Player Props

Germie Bernard, Pittsburgh Steelers: OVER 4.5 Receptions (-147, BetRivers/Bally’s)

I am kicking off the Week 7 proceedings with a player prop that is a bit pricey. But even at this price point, this feels like a must-play for me. I am going with Germie Bernard of the Pittsburgh Steelers to catch at least five passes on Sunday. Bernard and the Steelers will face the New Orleans Saints in Paris. Both the opponent and weather could help Bernard reach this threshold.

Aaron Rodgers trusts Bernard given the connection the pair have recently formed. The rookie has earned 21 targets over the last two weeks. That included last week’s game-winning overtime touchdown catch. More importantly, Bernard’s targets are almost all quick and catchable. Bernard has hauled in 17 of those 21 targets during that stretch. While the volume may dip slightly compared to last week, I expect the usage and catch rates to remain high for the 22-year-old. The Steelers will once again be without Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek for this game. Pittsburgh’s wide receiver corps is essentially whittled down to Bernard and DK Metcalf.

The Saints rank 31^st in total defensive DVOA. While they are worse against the run (32^nd) than the pass (27^th), they have still allowed 11 different players to catch at least five passes in a game against them this year. That’s nearly two per game. I see no reason Bernard and Metcalf can’t remain heavily involved in the passing game. This game also projects to feature moderate to high winds. I expect Rodgers to keep using Bernard on quick throws near the line of scrimmage. Because of that, I am picking Germie Bernard to finish this game with at least a handful of grabs.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: To Score a Touchdown (+140, BetRivers/Bally’s)

George Kittle has shown no ill effects from last season’s Achilles injury. He is tied for third in the NFL with five touchdown catches through six weeks. Kittle has an excellent chance to add to that total when San Francisco faces the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

The San Francisco 49ers’ wide receiver room resembles the proverbial MASH unit heading into this meeting. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. are expected to miss this game with injuries, while Demarcus Robinson and De’Zhaun Stribling remain on Injured Reserve. The 49ers will need to rely on Brandin Cooks, Jordan Watkins, and the returning Christian Kirk as their primary wide receivers. Kittle should earn plenty of looks, especially in scoring territory. The All-Pro tight end is tied for second in the league with seven targets inside the opponents’ 10-yard line.

Atlanta leads the NFL in defensive EPA against the run, but they rank 19^th in the league versus the pass. They have also been vulnerable against opposing tight ends. Atlanta has already allowed four touchdown catches to enemy tight ends this year and have given up the 10^th-most yardage to the position. On top of all that, Sunday is the unofficial celebration known as National Tight Ends Day. Kittle helped found this pseudo-holiday and has led the charge in its increasing popularity. He has scored in each of the last three instances in which he has played on this day.

This Week 7 NFL player prop is a prime example of why I keep stressing price shopping. I grabbed this at +140 on BetRivers/Bally’s, but it is as low as -145 on Fanatics Sportsbook. That is nearly a 20 percent difference in implied probability between books for the same exact player prop. Minimizing risk and maximizing profit is the name of the game. So, while I am not opposed to playing this elsewhere, always look for the best pricing available.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers: OVER 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110, TheScoreBet)

One of Sunday’s marquee matchups features the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Both teams are looking to keep pace in a loaded NFC North. The Packers and Lions are at the bottom of the division despite a combined 7-4 record. Neither team has posted a losing record over a full season since 2022. The potential return of Josh Jacobs is an interesting subplot for this game and gives us a chance to take advantage of what I believe is a soft market. I am picking the Packers running back to finish this game with at least 50 rushing yards. I also see this as a possible ladder opportunity.

Jacobs’ rushing yardage threshold has been climbing throughout the week. It was in the mid-40s as late as Wednesday. However, it would be disingenuous of me to post a line readers didn’t have access to. So, I tried to wait as long as I could before settling on this number. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if 49.5 is no longer available by the time this article is published. I expect this number to keep rising until kickoff on Sunday. The tea leaves suggest Jacobs will play, and I see little reason for the Packers to ease him into action. Jacobs should be ready to lead Green Bay’s backfield in a favorable matchup in a game with major shootout potential.

The rushing attack for the Packers through six weeks has been historically bad. They have the lowest offensive rushing DVOA this decade. And while some of the blame lies with their offensive line, that unit has a serviceable run-block win rate of 73 percent this season. That ranks 15^th in the NFL. Their running backs have simply been unable to find success. Among 54 running backs with at least 20 percent of their team’s carries this season, both Marshawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson both grade out as bottom-six running backs based on Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades. I don’t see much of a reason for this to be a committee if Jacobs is good to go. He should be the Packers’ primary running back immediately.

Jacobs has had at least 50 rushing yards in 27 of 34 games as a Packer. That includes at least 66 yards in all four meetings with Detroit. The Lions currently rank 23^rd in DVOA and 25^th in EPA against the run. I don’t think Jacobs will carry the ball an obscene amount of times. But he shouldn’t have to in order to reach 50 rushing yards against this defense. And if Green Bay utilizes him in a featured role, Jacobs could end up with much more than 50 yards. DraftKings currently has a +411 line on Jacobs to finish with 80 or more rushing yards. I don’t think that is out of the question given the matchup.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!