It was another 2-1 record in last week’s player prop article. And, as is often the case, the prop that should have been the easiest to hit based on odds was the one that lost. But that is life in the big city. I am turning the page and have found several spots I like this week. Here are three of my favorite NFL player props for Week 9.
NFL Week 9 Player Props
Ladd McConkey OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (-125, ESPNBet)
Rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey has only gone over this number in two of seven games to start his NFL career. However, one of those games was last week, and McConkey went over in a big way. McConkey caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and scored two touchdowns. We only need him to be half as productive this week, and I think the matchup with the Cleveland Browns should offer McConkey opportunities to do so. McConkey has excelled versus man coverage thus far this season. He is tied for sixth in the NFL with 194 receiving yards against man coverage this year. Entering Week 9, there are 79 wideouts with at least 25 targets. McConkey ranks fourth among that group with an average of 4.31 yards per route run versus man. He also has an elite 31.1 percent target share against man coverage.
These numbers are relevant because the Browns deploy man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. But they do not fare particularly well when they play man. The Browns rank in the bottom 10 in the league in yards per target and yards per reception in that coverage. Cleveland is likely to be without top cornerback Denzel Ward this week due to a concussion. Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has already been ruled out. Owusu-Koramoah has played 105 coverage snaps in the slot this season. McConkey lines up in the slot 69 percent of the time and should take advantage of this matchup. I am playing Ladd McConkey to account for at least 50 receiving yards this week.
Chuba Hubbard OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
Only about half of the sportsbooks I have consulted have posted a rushing yardage prop for Chuba Hubbard. There is a chance that we can find a better number or a better price later in the week. However, I am willing to bet (literally as well as figuratively) that this number in price will be representative of what we will get as we approach the weekend.
As for the prop itself. It feels to me as if this number is the sportsbook projecting that Jonathon Brooks will eat into Hubbard’s workload. I think it is fair to say that Brooks will get some work. However, I think that Brooks’ role may be a bit overstated, at least as it relates to Hubbard. He is much more likely to supplant Miles Sanders as the primary backup than he is to take carries away from Hubbard. Hubbard has averaged seven carries for every two that Sanders has seen this year. Maybe that split is closer to 2:1 with Brooks this week. There is also the distinct possibility that any carries that Brooks siphons will be at the expense of Bryce Young dropbacks, especially after Carolina traded Diontae Johnson this week.
Either way, I expect Hubbard to get plenty of carries in this game. In the four games that Carolina has either won or lost by less than three touchdowns, Hubbard has averaged 18 carries. If this game remains close, I think Hubbard could easily approach 15 carries. He may not even need that many to surpass this yardage barrier. The New Orleans Saints have given up a league-high 1.73 yards per carry before contact this year. They have allowed opposing running backs to rush for 556 yards in the last four weeks. In that span, they have allowed an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Hubbard should surpass this yardage number regardless of how much Brooks is involved. This is one of my favorite Week 9 NFL player props.
Josh Downs OVER 58.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115, Caesars)
My final Week 9 NFL player prop is in the Sunday night matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings. I am betting on Josh Downs to go over his rushing + receiving yards. This may seem strange, but there is a method to my madness. Caesars Sportsbooks lists Josh Downs’s receiving yardage prop at 58.5. The price is -125 to the over. They also list a rushing plus receiving yardage prop. That number is also 58.5, but the over is -115. You are getting a free dime for every dollar wagered so long as Downs does not carry the ball. Downs has one career carry in 23 NFL games. These are the small edges you need to take advantage of to be a successful long-term bettor.
As for the matchup, it figures to be a favorable one for Downs. Minnesota is allowing an average of 204.9 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. Most of that production has come in zone coverage. The Vikings play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. This is where Downs does a lot of his damage as well. Downs has a 31.6 percent target share versus zone coverage this season. The only full-time receivers who have a higher target share against zone coverage this year are Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Rashee Rice. And as we all know, none of those players have played in more than four games this season, as Downs has. Downs is dealing with a toe injury, but returned to practice on Thursday. As long as there are no setbacks, Downs should be heavily involved in the passing game on Sunday night.
And that brings me to my favorite part of this prop. The Colts have inserted Joe Flacco into their starting lineup in place of Anthony Richardson. Richardson is immensely talented, but at times looks like he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. He has only completed 44.4 percent of his passes this year. Meanwhile, Flacco has a serviceable 65.7 percent completion rate this year. And that number only goes up when he targets Downs. Flacco has connected with Downs on 23 of 29 targets for 206 yards and two touchdowns. Downs has at least 66 receiving yards in all three games in which Flacco has attempted a pass. This feels like a perfect storm for Josh Downs to go over his receiving yardage prop. If you do not have access to the rushing plus receiving line, I am fine playing just the receiving line as long as the number is the same.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!