The 2023 season of the PGA Tour comes to a close at the Wyndham Championship. Sedgefield Country Club has the honor of finalizing the 70 players that will tee it up in Memphis next weekend. Major winners Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, and Gary Woodland are all on the outside looking in, needing a great showing in North Carolina to steal a last second spot. Expect a true bubble watch come Sunday afternoon, as shifting in the rankings is inevitable, and a chance at the $18 Million is won and lost.
Sedgefield Insights
The list of former champions will tell you exactly what type of golfers will find success here at Sedgefield Country Club. That list includes Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner, JT Poston, Si Woo Kim, and Webb Simpson. When you look at these golfers’ strokes gained charts, very similar graphs will appear. All of these guys have shown their success mainly relying on accuracy off the tee, but are also consistent with the shorter irons and putter to round out a solid game. This is not saying guys that hit it further won’t find success, but history suggests a positional game off the tee is rather important. There are a few holes that players will opt for shorter clubs off the tee, as they will be forced with numerous layups to avoid narrow, tree-lined angles into the green.
As expected with a course that rewards a specific type of player, course history has proved to be a very strong metric for success here. Prior to his WD last season, Webb Simpson had secured 5 consecutive Top 7 finishes, including 2 runner-up finishes. Si Woo Kim has an eerily similar history, as prior to his WD in 2022, he had 3 consecutive Top 5 finishes. Sungjae Im has been ranked amongst the best players in the world in all major facets other than distance. In his 4 appearances at Sedgefield, he has 3 Top 10 finishes, with his best being the runner-up finish to Tom Kim last season. Shorter hitter Russell Henley has also tallied up 3 consecutive Top 10 finishes.
Wyndham Championship Best Bets
Denny McCarthy (+2500)
D-Mac has really established himself on Tour this season and has been doing it most in the toughest fields. While the Wyndham Championship isn’t exactly an elevated event, it does have a certain feel of importance with the bubble watch. With solid finishes all year long, he is nowhere close to sweating the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Standing at 25th in FedEx points, Denny currently sits on the edge of the final 30 qualifiers for The Tour Championship. A strong finish at Sedgefield would certainly ease Denny’s mind a bit heading into the playoffs.
Although he has been unsuccessful in the end, Denny has contended enough to expect a win soon. He’s shown some real strides in improving his approach game, which obviously ties in well with his world class putting. He also fits the mold of a winner at Sedgefield, as his above-average off-the-tee play relies on accuracy. He finds a nice rebound opportunity after a pitiful showing at The Open. If his approach game can gain a stroke or so each round, we can expect his short game to put him toward the top of the leaderboard. 25/1 is a bit short for a player to break his maiden, but it’s only a matter of time before Denny grabs that first victory.
Aaron Rai (+4000)
The 2-time European winner has improved his game year after year, slowly inching closer and closer to getting his first Tour win. He is statistically playing the best golf of his career, although that is only good enough for 61st in FedEx points. He’s pretty much locked in for Memphis but must be inside the top 50 to advance to the following week’s BMW Championship. It’s almost crunch time for Aaron.
Similar to Denny McCarthy, Rai consistently gains strokes off the tee due to his accuracy. Their difference comes in approach and putting. Rai is obviously not the world class putter Denny is, but he can gain here and there. Rai is definitely the better ball striker however. He has had 3 recent finishes where he gained more than 6 strokes approaching the green. Last season at the Wyndham Championship, his putter really let him down on the weekend. Gaining strokes in 3 of his last 4 events, I expect him to continue his upward trend in putting and be in contention come Sunday afternoon.
Carson Young (+20000) (+650 Top 20)
This pick is solely based on value. A win is a lot to ask of the rookie, but a Top 20 is definitely in the cards. On his best days, Young can be amongst the most accurate in the field. However, it’s the consistency aspect that keeps him as a true long shot. If Young does find success in avoiding the trees, he has a streaky approach game that can get as hot as anyone. Prior to the 3M Open, he had also gained strokes putting in 6 straight events.
My favorite data point of the week is Carson’s average distance from the center of the fairway.
He ranks 14th on Tour at just over 23 feet. This suggests that his misses are not that far off, which should fit this tree-lined course well.
It would take an absolute miracle for Carson to make the playoffs. He would need a win or runner up finish to qualify. A win wager is certainly not worth a full bet, but deserves consideration as a small long shot. And if he can find an accurate week off the tee, his newly found putter success can lead him to a Top 20 finish.