2025 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Busts

Bust is a relative term. Ultimately, the higher the draft choice, the bigger the emphasis on getting the pick correct. There’s also an opportunity cost in play as for every player you select, there are many that you leave in the player pool for your opponent to select. When it comes to quarterbacks, things are a little different. In the majority of leagues in which you start just one, the replacement value takes away some of the pressure. However, if you use a high pick on a quarterback, it better hit as you likely left real value at running back or wide receiver on the board. Let’s take a look at three quarterback busts for the upcoming season. This will be in the context of Fantrax ADP data as of 8/05/25.

2025 Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, ADP of 66

Travis Kelce is another year older. There are health concerns and a potential suspension surrounding Rashee Rice. How will Isiah Pacheco rebound after missing the majority of last season and then struggling upon his return?

When it comes to the Chiefs offense, there are more questions than answers. That doesn’t mean we can’t expect them to, at the least, contend for another AFC West title. But the master plan, once again, is to get to the postseason. The regular season has less importance.

While still elite, Patrick Mahomes is now another year older as well. After the top-five quarterbacks come off the board, there’s more than a 20-pick drop until we get to Mahomes. Based on the rankings, it’s hard to disagree as he’s likely better than Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix. But is Mahomes worth the pick here?

Compared to a lot of other quarterbacks going both before and after Mahomes, the veteran’s upside is limited. In today’s NFL, the majority of quarterbacks contribute both on the ground and through the air. Mahomes only rushed for 307 yards and two touchdowns last year, and that’s on par with what we can expect in 2025. By pushing Mahomes up the draft board, you are leaving rushing upside on the table.

Perhaps more importantly, the Chiefs’ offense isn’t as explosive as it used to be. A year after passing for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns, Mahomes followed that up with 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2024. There’s nothing that indicates those numbers will materially rise in 2025, which removes any potential upside.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions, ADP of 105

You might be starting to notice a theme here. Quarterbacks who don’t run put fantasy managers at a disadvantage. The upside is eliminated when you take the running game out of the equation. Ultimately, there’s a limit on how much fantasy production Jared Goff can produce.

From a talent perspective, nothing has changed in Detroit. There are ample skill players surrounding Goff once again, but there’s one big difference in 2025. Both Goff’s offensive coordinator and passing game coordinator are now on the sidelines for other teams. Beyond that, it’s very possible that we saw the best Goff had to offer in 2024. And there are some concerns about his ability to replicate that. Given Goff’s inability to do damage on the ground, we are paying for his ceiling with only downside and risk present.

If Goff didn’t complete 72.4% of his passes last season, we’d likely be telling a different story. Goff’s pass attempts dropped from 605 to 539, but thanks to his efficiency he finished with 4,629 yards compared to 4,575 in 2023. Goff threw 12 interceptions once again, but he saw his touchdown total rise from 30 to 37.

The biggest problem for Goff, though, is his 32nd-ranked average target depth and 34th-ranked attempts of greater than 20 yards. Having an average target depth of just 6.8 yards will limit Goff’s upside. Goff will have another strong season, but we are drafting him following his career year.

JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings, ADP of 133

Playing quarterback in the NFL isn’t easy. Doing so as a rookie is even more difficult. Coming back from injury is also quite difficult. In 2025, JJ McCarthy has to essentially do all three tasks.

After being drafted in the first round of the 2024 draft, McCarthy missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury. With Sam Darnold now in Seattle, McCarthy enters 2025 as the clear starter for the Vikings. Health is no longer an issue, and from that standpoint, we are in good shape.

The bigger concern, though, is how McCarthy looks in his first taste of NFL action. Having Kevin O’Connell on the sideline and Justin Jefferson running down the field should help to make things easier for McCarthy. After all, he turned Darnold into a legitimate NFL quarterback. Once Jordan Addison returns from his three-game suspension, McCarthy gets another weapon to go along with TJ Hockenson, as well.

With Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, the Vikings also have a strong running game. That will help open things up for McCarthy, but it will also take away some of his potential workload. McCarthy has a reputation for being a strong runner, but how eager will he be to do so at first after returning from his knee injury?

Aside from the adjustment factor, there are some concerns with McCarthy’s throwing mechanics as well. By the end of the season, McCarthy could look different than he will in Week 1, but will he really outperform Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence? If you draft McCarthy, he’ll likely struggle in September and hit the waiver wire, so why take him in the first place? Handcuff your running back instead.

For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!