Fantasy Football ADP Battles: This QB or that QB

Fantasy Football, in a nutshell, is about opportunity cost. If I draft Ja’Marr Chase first overall and not Bijan Robinson, what am I gaining versus what am I giving up down the line? Unless you play in a Superflex or 2QB league, your big decision about quarterback is often WHEN to draft one. Again, opportunity cost. If I draft Josh Allen in the third round, what skill player am I leaving on the table when selecting an early-round quarterback based on ADP?

But what about two quarterbacks who are right next to each other in fantasy football ADP? When you finally decide it’s time to take a quarterback for your fantasy football roster, how do you decide when two quarterbacks are so close in projections and in ADP? This piece will look at four quarterback ADP battles for players who are going close to one another.

Fantasy Football ADP Quarterback Battles

Battle I – Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson

All of the ADP data is from August 5 and will be based on the Consensus ADP tool from fantasypros.com.

Josh Allen (QB1), ADP 23

Josh Allen has finished in the top four in quarterback fantasy points per game every season since 2020. He has become perhaps one of the most predictable fantasy football assets in the game, and you know he is going to finish the season averaging more than 20 fantasy points per contest. There is a reason he is the consensus number one despite a lackluster offensive supporting cast.

Even when his top receivers are guys like Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid, Josh Allen finds a way. Last year, it was with 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Add in a guaranteed 28-35 touchdown passes every season, and Allen is the perfect floor and ceiling player week to week.

Lamar Jackson (QB2), ADP 24

This probably won’t be news to you, but Lamar Jackson’s 2024 season was literally historic. Never before had a player thrown for 4,000 yards, passed for 40 touchdowns, rushed for 900 yards, and rushed for four touchdowns in a season. In fact, you can remove the four rushing scores and lower the passing touchdown threshold to 30, and Lamar Jackson would STILL be the only player to reach those marks.

The same offensive cast is in Baltimore to run it back again with Lamar Jackson. Should we expect another outlier, historic season from Jackson? Likely not, but the touchdown accuracy and the rushing floor, which could easily be another 900-1,000 yards in 2025, are what put Lamar in a tier of his own.

Verdict: Do you want filet mignon or Wagyu beef? There really is no wrong answer here. But if forced to choose, I’ll pick the player who could easily add 1,000 rushing yards to more than 3,500 passing yards and 35 touchdowns. Give me Lamar Jackson by a small margin.

Battle II – Baker Mayfield vs. Bo Nix

Baker Mayfield (QB7), ADP 74

No matter how you look at it, Baker Mayfield had a career year in 2024. He threw for 4,500 yards, threw 41 passing touchdowns, rushed for 378 yards, had a 71% completion rate, and had a touchdown rate of 7.2% of his passes. All of those were career-highs under offensive coordinator Liam Coen.

Numbers like that, however, tend to regress from year to year. Quarterbacks just don’t regularly have 7% touchdown rates. They don’t just out of the blue throw for 40 touchdowns. And they rarely rush for 215 MORE rushing yards on two FEWER attempts than the year before.

Bo Nix (QB8), ADP 81

Look at Bo Nix the first four weeks of 2024 and then compare that to his Weeks 5-18. The passing attempts are about the same (33 per game vs. 34 per game). The rushing attempts are about the same (5.8 attempts versus 5.3 attempts). But something clicked with Nix and the Broncos in Week 5, and the rookie just took off.

In Weeks 1-4, Nix was on a 17-game pace of 2,800 passing yards and four touchdown passes. In Weeks 5 to 18, that exploded to 4,073 yards and 36.5 touchdown passes. With Evan Engram and R.J. Harvey added to the offense in 2025, it’s possible we see Nix take another step up this year.

Verdict: Baker Mayfield likely saw his ceiling season last year and lost dynamic offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Bo Nix wasn’t unleashed until Week 5, and we may not have seen his ceiling yet. I’ll take Bo Nix a few picks later.

Battle III – Dak Prescott vs. Justin Herbert

Dak Prescott (QB12), ADP 107

Dak Prescott is back and healthy, and he has a new weapon to add to his arsenal in 2025. Joining CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson this season will be George Pickens. Pickens as a WR2 is a major upgrade to Jalen Tolbert or whoever the Cowboys were trotting out there last year.

Heading into the season, the Cowboys look to have one of the worst running back groups in the NFL. Their defense is atrocious, and being held hostage by Jerry Jones and the Micah Parsons situation. I think this is a team that is going to be in some shootouts and will be airing the ball out quite frequently this season.

Justin Herbert (QB13), ADP 112

With Ladd McConkey added to his receiving corps last season, Justin Herbert was money. He was fourth in air yards, ninth in passing yards, and 10th in air yards per attempt. But Jim Harbaugh loves his old-school football, which meant the Chargers wanted to score them some rushing touchdowns. Despite all the efficiency, Herbert was 18th in red zone passing attempts and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Now with Omarion Hampton in town, I fear the Chargers will be even higher than they were last year, when they were 10th in the league at a 45% rushing play percentage rate.

Verdict: I have Dak Prescott by a landslide in this one. The Cowboys have no run game. They are a paper tiger on defense without Micah Parsons. And the Chargers want to establish the running game with their new shiny rookie running back.

Battle IV – Jordan Love vs. C.J. Stroud

Jordan Love (QB16), ADP 129

Four teams rushed at least 49% of the time in 2024. Care to guess which ones? Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Buffalo are correct. The last one? Green Bay was third overall as they rushed almost 51% of their plays. Green Bay was 30th in the league with 29.5 pass plays per game. This put a huge pressure on Josh Jacobs, and he answered the bell. Jordan Love, therefore, finished 19th in both pass attempts and passing yards.

But that was last year. The 2025 season could be much different, with the Packers drafting Matthew Golden and looking to feature Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft more. When he dropped back to pass last year, Love was elite. He was ninth in fantasy points per dropback and fifth in yards per attempt.

C.J. Stroud (QB17), ADP 130

Among quarterbacks who played at least 14 games in 2023, C.J. Stroud finished seventh in fantasy points per game in his rookie season. Last year, that plummeted down to 18th total fantasy points, at only 13.7 per game. I fear the Texans might have the same problem as the Cowboys with zero running game. But Stroud was 32nd in fantasy points per dropback last season. His supportive cast looks massively upgraded, and coordinator Bobby Slowik is no longer around. But that remade offensive line looks very shaky right now.

Verdict: Give me Jordan Love and the improved receiving corps. The Packers are unlikely to be as run-heavy this year, and Jordan Love is also given a few goal-line rushing touchdowns each year.

For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!