2026–27 Fantasy Basketball Points Leagues: Round-by-Round Steals and Traps

Welcome to the 2026–27 Fantasy Basketball Points League Round-by-Round Steals and Traps article!

While I love writing positive articles highlighting late-round gems, steals, and maximum-value picks, I know eventually I have to address the dark side of draft day: busts. So why not write an article that does both?

This idea was sparked by a buddy of mine—maybe you’ve heard of him—Dan Besbris, who fired off a “Steals & Busts in Every Round” tweet. A follower commented asking him to break it down specifically for points leagues, and Dan passed the rock to me. Instead of writing out a long Twitter thread, I decided to build a full article. Points league valuations are a hot topic right now, and identifying every steal and landmine in every round is crucial to building a championship roster.

Points Leagues Round-by-Round Steals and Traps

So without further ado, let’s dive in!

“You want to win games? You gotta outwork ’em, outthink ’em, and take what’s yours.” — Blue Chips (1994)

Round 1

Steals: Nikola Jokić, Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokounmpo

If you are blessed with any of the top four picks—Nikola Jokić, Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Luka Dončić—you are in an incredible position to dominate your league. While the remainder of Round 1 still features elite talent and usage-heavy stars like Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, those top four are slam-dunk, bona fide, no-questions-asked fantasy anchors.

Speaking of the Greek Freak, he is currently being drafted around pick 1.7. I would argue he needs to go off the board immediately after the top four at pick 1.5. He’s about to show the world that he remains a dominant top-five player in this league following a tumultuous end to last season in Milwaukee.

Traps: Cooper Flagg (ADP: 1.11)

There are no major landmines in Round 1, but Cooper Flagg being selected at pick 11 requires caution. At an 1.11 ADP, managers are banking heavily on an immediate elite transition. While the talent is immense and the opportunity will be there, his price tag gives me slight pause.

If you take a shot on Flagg at the 1/2 turn for his sky-high upside, make sure you backhand it with an ultra-stable, high-floor player like Scottie Barnes or Donovan Mitchell to protect your baseline production.

Round 2

Steals: Alperen Şengün (2.6), Amen Thompson (2.8)

• Alperen Şengün (Age: 24 | FP/G: 43.9): Şengün is coming off an impressive season averaging 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. He has been working closely with shooting coach Chip Engelland to refine his free throws and three-point shot, specifically aiming to make corner threes a bigger part of his arsenal. If he adds additional point volume from beyond the arc and the charity stripe, his upside climbs even higher. I’d much rather have him than several names currently drafted ahead of him.

• Amen Thompson (Age: 23 | FP/G: 39.5): Amen also spent the summer working with Engelland on his mechanics after landing a massive five-year, $208 million extension. Last season, he averaged 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.6 blocks across 37.4 minutes per game. What’s huge is that he logged 79 regular-season games. He is an absolute Iron Man, providing the exact mix of high volume, quality, and durability you want early in the second round. I would gladly spend a mid-second-round pick on him rather than hoping he falls.

Traps: Chet Holmgren (2.11), LaMelo Ball (2.12)

• Chet Holmgren: On paper, Holmgren could see a bumped offensive role following the departures of Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Lu Dort. However, drafting him over sturdier bigs like Evan Mobley, Bam Adebayo, Paolo Banchero, Walker Kessler, or Jalen Duren is a huge risk. Kessler’s early-career missed games were mostly due to Utah’s tanking strategies rather than true fragility; now in LA, catching lobs from Luka Dončić, I prefer Kessler over Chet. Holmgren’s thin frame combined with increased usage means more physical contact, raising major injury red flags.

• LaMelo Ball: Taking LaMelo at the 2/3 turn is blasphemous. Beyond his extensive injury history in Charlotte, his usage will take a massive hit. He is now sharing a backcourt with an alpha, ball-dominant guard in Anthony Edwards, who will command the ball on almost every key possession. He simply won’t get the usage needed to justify this cost. Let another manager take on that headache.

Round 3

Steals: Josh Giddey (3.1), Jalen Brunson (3.8)

• Josh Giddey (FP/G: 41.6): Giddey missed time last year due to ankle issues, but after undergoing spring ankle surgery, he enters camp with zero restrictions. Fresh off recording career highs in points (17.0), assists (9.1), and rebounds (8.3) per game as Chicago’s go-to playmaker, he is primed for a monster season. Expect those assist and rebound numbers to hold above 8.0 while his scoring approaches 20 PPG.

• Jalen Brunson: “The King of New York” is a massive steal at his current ADP. I would take him in the second round without hesitation. He recently confirmed he is fully cleared after off-season left wrist surgery. He played 74 games last season, averaging 26 points and 6.8 assists as the engine of a top-tier Knicks squad. He is a fierce competitor who plays through everything. If he falls to you in the late third round, you might as well claim the league trophy on draft night.

Traps: Anthony Davis (3.3), Kawhi Leonard (3.5)

• Anthony Davis: “Day-to-Day Davis” doesn’t need a lengthy breakdown. He played just 20 games last year and hasn’t logged more than 51 games in a season since 2023–24 (where he played 76 games). Prior to that, he logged 56, 40, and 36 games. Drafting him this high is playing with fire. If he starts the season hot, your best move is to sell high immediately before the inevitable missed time.

• Kawhi Leonard: Kawhi bounced back last year to average 45.7 fantasy points across 65 games—his best production since 2019–20. However, as he gets older on a deep, young Raptors squad, Toronto has no incentive to push him through heavy regular-season games. They can easily cruise in the middle of the Eastern Conference standings and preserve him for the postseason. That load-management profile is a trap in points formats.

Round 4

Steals: Domantas Sabonis (4.1), Jalen Duren (4.5), Paolo Banchero (4.9)

• Paolo Banchero (FP/G: 40.8): Paolo is ridiculously undervalued in points leagues. Efficiency critiques aside, his raw fantasy point accumulation is elite. He posted 40.8 FP/G last season in 72 games (and 43.3 the year prior) while logging 35+ minutes a night on a Magic team starved for his scoring, rebounding, and playmaking. Snagging him in the fourth round is absolute draft-day theft.

• Jalen Duren (FP/G: 38.2): With his contract saga officially resolved, the 22-year-old big man is set to build on last year’s dominant line of 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Averaging 38.2 FP/G, he is the clear #2 option alongside Cade Cunningham, feasting on lob opportunities with massive upside.

• Domantas Sabonis (FP/G: 36.4): Once a fringe first-rounder, Sabonis has fallen due to Sacramento’s rebuilding status. However, even on a struggling team, he remains a production machine. Despite trade rumors, he is guaranteed massive usage, scoring, and rebounding reps. Even if traded, any acquiring team will deploy him as a primary hub. He offers a rock-solid floor with easy second-round return potential.

Traps: Kon Knueppel (4.8)

• Kon Knueppel: Knueppel took the league by storm as a rookie, playing 81 games and averaging over 30 FP/G. However, Hornets GM Jeff Peterson noted that his status for opening night against the Nets is questionable due to a hamstring injury. Soft-tissue injuries are notoriously tricky and linger all season (as seen with Jalen Green last year). Spending a fourth-round pick on a player carrying immediate re-injury risk is a headache to avoid.

Round 5

Steals: Darius Garland (5.3), Dejounte Murray (5.4)

• Darius Garland: I’ve been pounding the table for Garland all off-season. With news of Brandon Ingram’s unstable Achilles, the Clippers desperately need Garland’s scoring and playmaking. Getting a guard guaranteed to sit near the top of the league in usage in Round 5 is highway robbery. He looked unstoppable in limited preseason action (15 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds on 100% shooting in 15 minutes). Draft him with confidence.

• Dejounte Murray: Murray logged only 14 games last season due to injury, but he was electric when on the court—averaging 34.9 FP/G (16.7 PTS, 5.4 REB, 6.4 AST, 1.6 STL) in just 27.8 minutes per game. Now fully healthy as a core pillar for the Pelicans, his minutes and usage will climb, giving him a clear path toward 40+ FP/G.

Traps: Kyrie Irving (5.1), LeBron James (5.5), Joel Embiid (5.11)

• Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, & Joel Embiid: This trio shares the same major red flags: age, severe health risks, and chronic load management.

  • Kyrie (34) missed all of last season, making him far too risky in Round 5 despite his talent.

  • LeBron (41) was recently ruled out of preseason action for rest while battling sciatica and chronic foot arthritis.

  • Embiid has played just 39, 19, and 38 games over his last three seasons. In points leagues where raw games played (quantity) is king, drafting heavily load-managed stars in Round 5 will sink your season.

Round 6

Steals: Julius Randle (6.8), Ryan Rollins (6.9)

• Julius Randle: Randle is being heavily disrespected at his current ADP. After seeing his usage dip in Minnesota next to Anthony Edwards, he is now in Brooklyn as the undisputed primary option. During his peak New York years, he averaged 41–43 FP/G in 35+ minutes per night as a primary hub. Whether Brooklyn keeps him or showcases him for a trade, he is a lock to obliterate his 6th-round ADP.

• Ryan Rollins: Rollins is poised for a massive role in Milwaukee following the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade. Last year, he proved his worth by averaging over 17 points, 5 assists, and 1.5 steals across 74 games. At 24 years old, he steps into a starting backcourt starved for talent. Even with Tyler Herro around, Rollins’ durability and projected growth (18–20 PPG, 6–7 APG) make him a league-winning bargain in Round 6.

Traps: Kel’el Ware (6.1)

• Kel’el Ware: Ware is being drafted directly at his absolute ceiling despite not having a guaranteed starting job. While moving away from Miami gives him a clean slate, there is no guarantee his role or minute stability remains consistent if performance dips. There are too many variables and coaching risks to justify spending a top-60 pick on him.

Round 7

Steals: Payton Pritchard (7.7)

• Payton Pritchard (FP/G: 30.7): Coming off a career year where he averaged 17.0 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.9 rebounds in 79 games, Pritchard is an ideal mid-round target. With Jaylen Brown traded out of Boston and Paul George sliding into a veteran leadership role, Pritchard is primed to serve as the #2 or #3 option in Boston’s offense. He’s focused on incremental efficiency and defense gains, making his floor remarkably stable.

Traps: Paul George (7.3), Brandon Ingram (7.4), Ja Morant (7.11), V.J. Edgecombe (7.12)

• Paul George (36): Limited to 41 and 37 games over the last two seasons; expecting more than 50 games is a gamble.

• Brandon Ingram: Dealing with a partial Achilles tear and an unstable recovery timeline; avoid even if he falls past Round 9.

• Ja Morant: Off-court issues, persistent injuries, and a crowded backcourt with Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday cap his upside. Recent practice footage shows a less explosive guard relying on settled play rather than his trademark athletic rim pressure.

• V.J. Edgecombe: Represents the 4th or 5th option on a healthy Sixers squad. While he may produce during random load-management nights for veterans, his game-to-game role is far too volatile for this draft cost.

Round 8

Steals: Coby White (8.2)

• Coby White: With LaMelo Ball out of the picture, this is officially Coby White’s backcourt in Charlotte. He is set to star alongside ascending talent Brandon Miller, taking on heavy ball-handling duties for an offense that will play fast and score plenty. In his 21 regular-season appearances after being traded to Charlotte, White averaged 15.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in just 19.3 minutes per game. Extrapolating that production across a projected 28+ minutes per night, White should easily average 18+ points, 5–6 assists, 3–4 rebounds, and a steal per game, making him an absolute steal at an 8.2 ADP.

INJURY UPDATE: Coby White is set to miss the remainder of the preseason due to a calf strain. While there’s no immediate indication he’ll miss opening night, it’s worth noting this is the same calf issue that cost him time last season, which naturally adds some risk. Keep an eye on draft boards: if this injury scare causes his ADP to drop into the 10th-round range, pounce! At that cost, he becomes a massive bargain—worst-case scenario, you stash him on IR until he’s 100%, and best-case, you get a full-go star on opening night as a bonus.

Traps: Ty Jerome (8.6)*

• Ty Jerome*: [Caveat Watch] This ADP could potentially be justified if Jerome is officially named the starting point guard for Memphis. He showed massive per-minute fantasy upside last season, compiling stats in a hurry despite being capped around 20 minutes a night (including late-season games of 46.3, 27.7, and 31.2 fantasy points before Memphis shut him down). However, with rumblings that Scotty Pippen Jr. could claim the starting job, drafting Jerome this high carries immense risk. If Jerome wins the starting job, he is worth a shot at this cost; if Pippen Jr. takes the starting nod, Jerome becomes an instant draft trap.

Rounds 9–14: Late-Round Value & Avoids

To wrap up the draft board, here is a quick-fire list of late-round targets to stash and avoid as you fill out your bench.

Steals:

• Day’Ron Sharpe (9.3)

• Keegan Murray (9.9)

• Darryn Peterson (10.2)

• Egor Demin (11.6)

• Darius Acuff Jr. (11.8)

• Davion Mitchell (12.10)

Traps:

• Kristaps Porziņģis (9.11)

• John Collins (9.12)

• Sandro Mamukelashvili (11.9)

When you get done here, make sure to check out our full 2026 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, winning your points league isn’t just about loading up on recognizable names—it’s about capitalizing on usage, volume, and durability while ruthlessly avoiding the injury landmines and load-management traps lurking in every single round. Shoutout to Dan Besbris for passing the rock on this topic; hopefully, this round-by-round blueprint gives you the edge you need when you’re on the clock!

Be sure to follow me on X @AintDunneYet for daily pre-draft rankings, streaming targets, and strategy updates.

God bless, pounce on those steals, avoid those traps, and let’s go bring home those trophies!