We are in it to the end. The NFL regular season is 18 weeks, and that is how long we are going to last, aka survive. It does not get any clearer than that. Each week we need to survive by picking the winner from one of that week’s games. Yes, I know, it sounds quite simple. But only if it were that simple. Once you pick a team, that is it; you can no longer use them again that season. Anyone who has ever done a survivor pool will tell you that it is both exhilarating and stressful. As you prepare for the crazy ride, let’s dig into some survivor pool strategy heading into the 2026 NFL season.
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Survivor Pool Strategy
Start with the Favorites
If you want to play the odds, let’s start with 66.8%. That’s how often favorites emerged victorious in the 2025 NFL regular season. By favorites, we mean the team that is predicted to win based on the Las Vegas betting odds. Yes, this is their business and method of making money, and they seemingly have the edge, yet they are still wrong more than 30% of the time. Of course, it is better than the alternative, but it shows how much work is still left to be done. It also means that things are not as easy as they might appear to be.
Target Bad Teams
From season to season, we think we know what’s going to happen, but that doesn’t mean it always happens. To begin, though, especially early in the year, target those bad teams. It’s helpful to look at projected win/loss totals and target those with the fewest predicted victories. The matchups that have the largest gap between projected win totals are a great place to start.
Home Teams
As we continue to play the odds, home-field advantage is not the advantage it once. Last season, home teams won 53.9% of the time, so while it’s a factor for consideration, it’s not strong enough to truly make a difference or hold you back from making a selection. However, there are some teams that do historically play better at home or on the road than others. And that should be a factor in your decision.
However, as weather comes into play, this thought process becomes more pronounced. Teams from the south might have issues in the cold or with the elements, and teams from the north might have trouble playing in the heat. There’s an issue with domed teams leaving their comfortable home field as well.
Avoid Rivalry Games
Anything can happen at any time in any game. When teams are divisional rivals, they tend to play each other tighter and perhaps with greater motivation than against other teams. For that reason, when possible, avoid choosing teams when they are playing in divisional games.
Look Ahead
Things change all too quickly in the NFL, but when dealing with 18 weeks, you have to look ahead to some degree. I’m not saying you need to plan out all 18 weeks and then stick with it no matter what, but be aware of the schedule and your options. The last thing you want to do is make a bad pick in Week 3 because you are looking ahead to Week 7. If your first pick fails, you won’t have the opportunity to make the second pick. But if you have two options you feel equally confident in, then let Week 7 dictate your Week 3 pick.
Adjust Your Thinking and Suspend Disbelief
If this was so easy, everyone would do it. Survivor pools would be filled with entries going all 18 weeks, but that often isn’t the case. What you think you knew in Week 2 could make a 180-degree turn by the time we get to Week 4. Be prepared for that.
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