Ladies and gentlemen, NFL Week 1 is upon us. The post-draft euphoria has tapered off, and the screenshots have been shared for roasting; now the real work begins. Making those pesky start/sit decisions. We will have less data at our disposal than we will as the season progresses. This weekly look at quarterback sleepers and streamers will evolve with the data as the weeks pass by.
This article is aimed at deciphering quarterbacks outside the top 12 who have QB1 upside for the week or are performing at a higher value than their current ECR (expert consensus rank) reflects.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
Week 1: Quarterback Sleepers and Streamers
Sam Darnold, SEA vs. NE – Deep Sleeper
We begin the season with a run-it-back rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots. This game features a modest 44.5 over/under. The appeal here is that, as it stands, the Patriots are a more complete offense. They can score on the ground with Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, or TreVeyon Henderson. They can score through the air with newly acquired A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, and Hunter Henry. The Patriots are going to want to feature Brown, who also happens to want the ball. With a dynamic offense, expect the Patriots to come out swinging.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a backfield that is still being worked out. Zach Charbonnet is still trying to return from injury. Kenneth Walker III is gone to greener pastures in Kansas City, and rookie Jadarian Price is unproven. This will put the offensive weight squarely on Sam Darnold’s shoulders.
Last season, Darnold averaged 238.1 passing yards and 1.47 passing touchdowns per game. The Patriots allowed 206 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns to quarterbacks last season. The Seahawks defense kept them in plenty of games last season. Should that plan falter, Darnold is going to need to step it up and sling the ball around. With weapons like Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Rashid Shaheed, an aerial attack remains the most likely approach.
Darnold is not a lock to sneak into the top-twelve quarterbacks this week, but does have appeal to outperform current QB22 ECR based on game script.
Jared Goff, DET vs. NO – High Upside
When looking for potential sleepers or even value DFS picks, a good place to start is the line Las Vegas has set. This game features a 49.5 over/under. While it may favor the Lions at home, it implies the Saints will try to make a game of it. Goff is already ranked as QB10, per expert consensus rankings for the week. So why include him? Because he possesses overall week-one QB1 potential.
Here is what we know for sure. Head coach Dan Campbell does not take his foot off the gas. If his team is leading by three, he goes for the fourth-and-long. If up by a score, he is going for another. Jared Goff has a home versus road split that is something of a marvel. For his career, not just with Detroit, Goff throws 5.3% more yards and 26.5% more touchdowns when at home. On average, Goff puts up three points more per game at home despite the fact that he attempts more passes on the road.
Goff might not fit the profile of a ‘sleeper’, but I have him ranked higher than consensus and not without good reason. Goff finishing as the overall QB1 for the week is well within the range of outcomes. He represents both a safe production floor with high upside.
Kyler Murray, MIN vs. GB – Value Play
Murray has been oft-overlooked through the draft portion of the fantasy season. Our most recent memory of him was being hurt, followed by truly uninspiring play at the position. However, we should not forget that he has finished the season as a top-twelve fantasy scoring quarterback in four seasons, three of which were consecutive.
Murray finds himself in a positive coaching situation in Minnesota with the best supporting cast he has ever had. In a properly run offense, he now has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to throw to, while Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason operate out of the backfield. It is a competitive division, and they are backed by a solid defense.
This divisional matchup features a 46.5 over/under. Murray should walk into this season with a bit of a chip on his shoulder and a renewed sense of competition. One that made his first three seasons both fun to watch and fantasy productive.
Per ECR, he is the QB15 for the week. He sneaks into the top-twelve while being lower on the start percentage.
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