Two weeks into the season, my record sits at 3-3-1. Kyler Murray’s Week 1 injury explains the push in the record. Heading into Week 3, sportsbooks should start adjusting to some of the trends we’ve seen so far, but there are still plenty of opportunities to find value. I’ve got some strong plays lined up, so let’s break down my favorite DraftKings player props for Week 3.
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NFL Week 3 Prop Plays on DraftKings
Jaxson Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions (-113)
This line feels too low for a guy who has been absolutely cooking defenses to start the season. Smith-Njigba enters Week 3 leading the NFL in both receiving yards (277) and receiving touchdowns (4). He’s commanding targets at an elite rate, with a 48% target-per-route-run rate, 6.02 yards per route run, and a 26.1% route win rate, the highest among wide receivers with at least 30 routes.
The volume is just as impressive. JSN has accounted for 44% of Seattle’s targets (22 of 50 passing attempts) and 80% of the team’s offensive touchdowns.
Washington has struggled to defend intermediate routes along the boundary and in the slot, creating opportunities for heavily targeted receivers to find open space. CeeDee Lamb took advantage of those same weaknesses last week, hauling in 8 receptions for 153 yards. With JSN operating as Seattle’s clear-cut go-to option, I’m expecting another busy afternoon.
David Montgomery Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I’m buying the dip on Montgomery after last week’s disappointing rushing production. We cashed this number in Week 1, and I’m going right back to the well in a matchup that sets up nicely for the running game.
The Colts have been getting gashed on the ground through two weeks, allowing 177 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. They’ve also missed 28 tackles, creating plenty of opportunities for opposing backs to pick up extra yardage.
We’ve already seen Kenneth Walker and Derrick Henry both go for more than 115 rushing yards against this defense.
Houston is coming off a game in which it largely abandoned the rushing attack, but at 0-2, the Texans need to find some offensive balance. With Nico Collins still out, leaning on the ground game and controlling the clock should be a priority. Montgomery was brought in to help establish that physical identity, and this is exactly the type of matchup where he can make an impact.
Tee Higgins Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
With Andrei Iosivas landing on Injured Reserve, Cincinnati’s passing attack should become even more concentrated between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. That creates an opportunity for Higgins to see another healthy dose of targets.
We saw the upside last week against Houston, when Higgins hauled in 10 targets for 95 receiving yards. Higgins has also consistently produced against Pittsburgh throughout his career, averaging 85.6 receiving yards per game in matchups against the Steelers. With his recent target volume and history against this division rival, I’m looking for Higgins to get involved early and make some plays downfield.
De’Von Achane Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)
Miami’s depleted receiving corps has created an opportunity for Achane to become a major part of the passing game. His 73.8% route share essentially has him operating as a primary slot receiver, giving him plenty of opportunities to get involved as a pass catcher.
Achane has already seen 11 targets through two weeks, catching four passes in Week 1 and three in Week 2. He’s leading the Dolphins in receptions, and with limited options available around him, his role in the passing game should remain significant.
Miami enters this matchup as a double-digit underdog, which sets up a potential game script where the Dolphins are forced to throw early and often. If Kansas City jumps out to a lead, expect Miami to lean on short passes and checkdowns rather than consistently challenging the Chiefs downfield.
We just saw Jonathan Taylor haul in four receptions for 40 yards against Kansas City in Week 2, showing how opposing running backs can get involved through the air against this defense.
With the Chiefs boasting a stout defensive front, Miami could also use Achane as an extension of its rushing attack, getting the ball into his hands in space and letting him create after the catch. He only needs four receptions to cash this prop, and given his target share, route participation and projected game script, Achane should make us proud.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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