Four weeks into the season, my record sits at 9-4-3. Week 4 was a strong one, as we finished 4-0-1, with the push coming after Rashee Rice left with an injury. Fortunately, Rice is on bye this week and appears to be dealing with a minor issue. We’re looking to keep the momentum rolling and build on what has been a solid start to the season. Let’s get into my Week 5 NFL props on DraftKings.
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NFL Player Props for Week 5 on DraftKings
Omarion Hampton Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Hampton saw a season-low nine carries against Seattle last week; talk about sour grapes for anyone who drafted him. He’s cleared this rushing total in every game this season, and the matchup against Denver gives him a legitimate opportunity to keep that streak alive.
The Broncos have been giving up 142.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL. Â While last week’s workload was concerning, the bar here is just 39.5 yards. Hampton doesn’t need a massive workload to get there. I’m expecting Hampton to get back on track and clear the line.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
This Lions-Cardinals matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout, and St. Brown is one of my favorite ways to attack it. Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities against the pass, and with the potential for plenty of points and offensive possessions, the opportunities for St. Brown to rack up receiving yards should be there.
St. Brown is averaging an elite 2.78 yards per route run against two-high safety coverage. The Cardinals deploy two-high safety coverage at a 78% rate, the second-highest mark in the NFL. St. Brown also commands a massive 32.4% team target share. Arizona has allowed 9.1 yards per pass attempt, ranking dead last in the NFL. With St. Brown’s target volume, efficiency against two-high looks, and a favorable matchup, he could clear this number before halftime.
Tyler Shough Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-117)
Shough has been a reliable option for this prop based on the recent trend, clearing over 22.5 completions in nine of his last 11 games dating back to Week 12 of last season.
Brian Flores is known for bringing pressure. The undefeated Minnesota Vikings command a 71% blitz rate through the first four games. We should see a ton of quick passes and getting the ball out of Shough’s hands quickly.
His numbers against the blitz support the case. Shough has posted a 105.1 passer rating against blitzes, ranking 10th among quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks. He’s also completed 71.9% of his passes, the eighth-best mark in that group, while throwing for 442 yards and four touchdowns with just one interception. As of this writing, we don’t know if Justin Jefferson and/or Jordan Addison will play, but Shough will have opportunities to take advantage of the blitz. The 22.5 pass completions feel a bit low, so let’s take advantage.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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