4 Tight End Busts for 2025 Fantasy Football

Finding a “bust” at the tight end position for fantasy football is not hard to do. Tight ends traditionally don’t carry the workload or target share of elite running backs and wide receivers, so any dropoff in production or injury can tank a season. In addition, since most fantasy leagues only start one tight end per team, a lot of players who aren’t starter-worthy are going to look like busts by the end of the year.

Bust also means a lot of things to a lot of different people, so we should define it. Your definition, my definition, and the definition of countless others for a Fantasy Football bust may have some similarities,  but really comes down to one thing: production relative to cost. Two tight ends who both return ninth-round value can’t both be busts if one went in the third round and one went in the 13th round. Stats don’t make a bust. Production compared to expectations and draft capital does.

In this article, we will look at four players being drafted among the top 15 tight ends who I believe will not live up to expectations. We have already identified tight end breakouts and undervalued tight ends. Now, we have tight ends who will bust in 2025.  I have four players this year that I feel will not do the job we are expecting them to do to help teams win fantasy championships.

4 Tight End Busts for Fantasy Football in 2025

1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

There might not be a more hotly-debated potential bust tight end than Travis Kelce. After the season he had in 2024, the question of his age-related decline is a genuine one. Despite playing in every game except for the Week 18 game where all starters sat, Kelce posted career-low numbers in receiving yards, touchdowns, and yards per reception. His fantasy points per game on the season were his lowest number in 10 years (2015).

Kelce is now 36 years old and it’s often easy to forget just how long he has been dominant at the tight end position. At some point, the dropoff is going to happen, so was 2024 the first of several steps in that direction? Right now, Kelce is still being drafted as the TE6 or TE7 off the board, depending on format. Much of that is due to the fact that Patrick Mahomes still has eyes for him in the red zone, but there is certainly a case to be made that more negative regression is coming.

Kelce did lead all players at his position with 26 red zone targets in 2024. However, the wide receiver room is a lot more crowded with Rashee Rice available (for now, at least, depending on a suspension), Xavier Worthy in year two, and Hollywood Brown still going. Even Noah Gray had big moments in 2024 as Kelce’s backup, and he was given a long-term contract.

I like Kelce more if Rashee Rice is suspended for more than three games, but that’s an unknown right now. Instead, what we do now is Kelce will get a lot of looks in the red zone, but he just isn’t the yard-gainer he was in years past. Justifying a top-70 pick for Kelce right now is hard to do.

2. Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders

When you look at Zach Ertz’s box scores from 2024 and see that he played in all 17 games, you should know that is an outlier. Ertz played in a total of 17 games from 2022-2023, and he avoided injury for the first season since a relatively healthy 2021. Part of the resurgence for Ertz was health, but the biggest piece of the pie can be attributed to Jayden Daniels. Ertz had more receiving yards and touchdowns last season than he did in the two previous seasons combined. His seven touchdowns were fourth at the position.

Ertz also got extremely lucky as the season went along. Through Weeks 1-9, Ertz averaged 6.6 half-PPR fantasy points per game. In Weeks 10-18, that number spiked to 10.6 after he scored the majority of his touchdowns in the second half of the season. Will that luck from the end of the season and the playoffs continue? That, plus health, is the risk you have to take with Ertz.

Which tight end are we going to get in the 2025 season? Ertz spent five seasons with five or fewer touchdowns before the 2024 jump in touchdowns. He also missed games in 2020, 2022, and 2023. Will those things all work in his favor at the age of 35? I’m extremely skeptical and think there are other, better veteran and young players at the position who offer just as much upside.

3. Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers

All of the helium went out of the hype balloon after Jonnu Smith was sent packing from Miami and shipped off to the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a dominant breakout season from Smith, he now finds himself in an Arthur Smith offense that likes to run, run, and run some more, and he has competition internally from Pat Freiermuth.

Before this trade was finalized, Jonnu Smith was being drafted as a top-six or seven tight end after he posted 88 catches for 884 yards and eight scores in 2024. Now, he is going somewhere around TE10 or TE11 and has moved outside the top 100 picks in early fantasy football drafts. For the main reason why, look at targets for the top tight ends on each team in 2024. For Miami, Smith had 111 targets in 17 games. In Pittsburgh, Freiermuth had only 78.

It’s possible that the price on Jonnu Smith might fall enough that he becomes a potential sleeper at the draft cost. If he drops outside the top 15 tight ends, it’s possible a late-round pick could acquire his services, and he is certainly more athletic and talented than Pat Freiermuth. Smith is an outstanding athlete, but the problem is he might have landed in one of the worst possible spots to showcase those abilities. For now, I’m staying away.

4. Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

One thing about rookie Colston Loveland is really hard to ignore. The Chicago Bears drafted him 10th overall in this spring’s 2025 NFL Draft, which is a lot of draft capital for someone to potentially be a bust. He demanded a 27.9% target share in a (low-volume) Michigan passing attack at just 20 years old, and the Bears clearly want him to replace Cole Kmet as the tight end of the future. I’m just not quite sold on it for 2025.

The Chicago Bears offense already features D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, rookie Luther Burden III (an early second-round pick), D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet. Caleb Williams is projected to take a step forward under Ben Johnson and a revamped offensive line. But even if that happens, where does Loveland fall in the target share pecking order? Can Caleb Williams keep five different receivers happy? It seems like a tall order.

Loveland should get more playing time and outplay Cole Kmet even in his rookie season. But Loveland is already dealing with an injury (to his surgically-repaired shoulder joint), and there are no guarantees he will be full speed with his teammates for several weeks of training camp. Loveland is currently the TE14 on average, so you’re not breaking the bank to get him. Just be cautious drafting him, thinking you might get the next Brock Bowers or Sam LaPorta rookie season. That outcome is unlikely.
For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!