The 2024 NFL Season is nearly here, but I can still remember the distinct performances from the 2023 Season. Especially those performances that surprised nearly all of us. I can say the name – Puka Nacua – and Fantasy Football fans will instantly think of the fifth-round rookie that many people picked up off of the waiver wire who became a true Fantasy Football League winner and NFL record breaker. The list of storylines behind players is extensive from last year. Reflecting on last year made the wheels start turning in my mind for this year. A big question often tossed around when it comes to Fantasy Football is “Who is the next _____”. I am here to answer those questions for various players.
This article will take a look at performances from 2023, outline a qualifier to meet specific criteria, and then give you my projection of who can be the 2024 version of the focused 2023 player. When I am projecting who the 2024 version of a specific 2023 player is, I am not saying that their statistical production will be identical or that they will have the same exact outcome but simply saying that the 2024 version can replicate the big-picture performance of that 2023 player. Let’s get it!
Who is this Year’s…?
2024 Version of 2023 Raheem Mostert
- Mostert’s 2023 stats: 209 rushing attempts, 1,012 rushing yards, 25 catches, 175 receiving yards, 21 total touchdowns, and17.9 Fantasy PPG (#4)
- Qualifier: Veteran running back who is slept on in drafts but explodes for a big season with touchdown upside which translates to a big Fantasy Football season
- Answer: James Conner
Across James Conner’s final five games in 2023, he averaged 20.8 rushing attempts, 102.8 rushing yards, 4.92 yards per attempt, 1 rushing touchdown, 2.6 receptions, 0.4 receiving touchdowns, and 23.86 Fantasy Points. Extremely heavy production right there. Conner has averaged over 15 Fantasy PPG for three straight seasons, which shows extremely consistent Fantasy Football production. The issue for Conner has always just been injuries, with him playing in 13 or fewer games in six of his seven NFL seasons. Conner does have a major touchdown season under his belt with 18 total in 2021 and has a veteran discount in Fantasy Football drafts with an ADP of RB19 right now. Trey Benson, the third-round rookie selection in 2024, is the future of Arizona but the now is Conner.
2024 Version of 2023 DJ Moore
- DJM’s 2023 stats: 136 targets, 96 receptions, 1,364 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns, and 16.9 (#9) Fantasy PPG
- Qualifier: Wide receiver who has a huge season in his new home after departing the team he spent years with
- Answer: Diontae Johnson
Ranking 39th the last two seasons in Fantasy PPG has been rough for Diontae Johnson, but so has the state of the Steelers passing game during those two years. Johnson is a guy who has had heavy Fantasy Football impacts in the past, with seasons of 14.8 (#22) and 17.2 (#8) Fantasy PPG in 2020 and 2021. Johnson has historically been a target earner with seasons of 147 (2022), 169 (2021), and 144 (2020) targets as simply a guy who gets open. I am projecting Johnson to be Bryce Young’s WR1 in an improved Carolina offense, which can draw plenty of Fantasy relevance seeing that Adam Thielen had heavy Fantasy impacts in 2023 even with Young struggling as a rookie. The Johnson bounce-back can be a big one for Fantasy Football which could make his WR37 ADP look foolish.
2024 Version of 2023 Nico Collins
- Collins 2023 stats: 109 targets, 80 receptions, 1,297 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns, and 17.4 Fantasy PPG (#7)
- Qualifier: Wide receiver who was quiet for Fantasy Football up until a quarterback change elevated him to a breakout season
- Answer: Drake London
Drake London has yet to have the Fantasy Football impact that we all have hoped for, but he has been set up to fail through his two NFL seasons. For one, a mixture of Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, and Marcus Mariota meant below-average quarterback play. For two, the Falcons attempted the eighth and second least passing attempts in the last two seasons. The signing of Kirk Cousins this off-season should address both the passing volume and quality of volume concerns that have held London back. London had weeks of 18.7 (Week 2), 14.7 (Week 5), 21.5 (Week 6), and 29.2 (Week 14) Fantasy Points when targeted 8+ times. Cousins’ presence will elevate London to his first major Fantasy Football season which will be a breakout one.
2024 Version of 2023 Christian McCaffrey
- CMC’s 2023 stats: 272 rushing attempts, 1,459 rushing yards, 5.4 yards per carry, 67 receptions, 564 receiving yards, 21 total touchdowns, and 24.5 Fantasy Points
- Qualifier: Running back who has his first full season in a new home and combines a playmaking talent with the best situation he ever has been in for a major Fantasy Football impact
- Answer: Saquon Barkley
I have said this time and time again but I truly feel that Philadelphia saw the impacts of Christian McCaffrey being added as a dynamic, playmaking running back to San Fran and how that pushed them close to winning a Super Bowl and said “We need to do that”. Insert Saquon as the McCaffrey of Philly. We once thought of Saquon as a similar talent to CMC, and some of his big numbers suggest that. Over 1,300 rushing yards in both 2022 and 2018, five seasons over 40 receptions with a high of 91 in 2018 as a rookie, three seasons of double-digit total touchdowns, and three seasons over 17 Fantasy PPG. D’Andre Swift in 2023 had a career-high rushing total with the Eagles, which followed Miles Sanders rushing for a career-high the year prior. I think Barkley can follow suit in 2024, in the best situation he has ever been in versus all those years in New York. The clips of Barkley being involved in the passing game are reassuring that not only can he have a big year on the ground but he can be utilized as a true weapon. I am extremely high on Barkley this season, and his ceiling is high.
2024 Version of Jake Ferguson
- Ferguson’s 2023 stats: 102 targets, 71 receptions, 761 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns, and 10.4 Fantasy PPG (#10)
- Qualifier: A tight end who is under-drafted for Fantasy Football and has a big season due to being his team’s #2 target
- Answer: Pat Freiermuth
12 games played for Pat Freiermuth, and a poor showing through the air in general in Pittsburgh meant nonrelevance for Fantasy Football in 2023. Back in 2022, Freiermuth finished 12th in Fantasy PPG with 9.3, having a big season as a sophomore tight end in the league. In 2022 98 targets ranked fifth, 63 receptions ranked sixth, and 732 receiving yards ranked sixth. Muth also finished #9 in yards after catch, #7 in yards per route run, and #3 in deep targets that year which shows a combination of upside and efficiency. With Diontae Johnson now a Panther, George Pickens will likely be the #1 target in Pittsburgh in 2024, and I project Muth to be the #2 target as he was in 2022. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are a pair of upgrades to what Pittsburgh had in 2023, along with improvements to their offensive line.
2024 Version of 2023 CJ Stroud
- Stroud’s 2023 stats: 499 passing attempts, 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 167 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 18.7 Fantasy PPG (#3)
- Qualifier: High draft capital rookie has an immediate Fantasy Football breakout
- Answer: Caleb Williams
Not a hot take here that the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft will be #GoodAtFootball, but I truly believe Caleb Williams has the tools matched with the situation to have a huge rookie season. Caleb Williams was a highly productive prospect and one of the best we have seen. 10,082 passing yards, 93 passing touchdowns, 966 rushing yards, and 27 rushing touchdowns through Williams’ career is an elite college resume. Wiliams top two receiving options, Tahj Washington and Brendan Rice, ended up as seventh-round draft picks in the 2024 NFL Draft which shows Caleb is coming off of a season with fairly average weapons. Williams now steps into a Bears system that houses proven studs in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, fellow first-round rookie Rome Odunze, a pair of competent tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, and pass-catching running back D’Andre Swift. I cannot remember a rookie who instantly stepped into a situation like Caleb does and his rushing upside elevates him even further. Williams has the talent and the weapons to have an outstanding rookie season.
2024 Version of 2023 Jayden Reed
- Reed’s 2023 stats: 94 targets, 64 receptions, 793 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns, 13.6 Fantasy PPG (#26)
- Qualifier: Second-round rookie with a first-year starter who has an immediate Fantasy Football impact as his team’s most productive wide receiver
- Answer: Ja’Lynn Polk
Ja’Lynn Polk finished his college career at Washington with a breakout season, recording 69 catches for 1,159 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns with 2024 NFL Draft first-round rookie Rome Odunze on the field with him. After selecting Drake Maye in the first-round of the 2024 NFL Draft, the first move after that the Patriots made was pairing Maye with a wide receiver in the second round with Polk. When looking at the wide receiver room in New England, Polk profiles as the only guy that I feel could be the team’s true WR1. Polk brings some size, gets up for the contested catches, finishes the deep plays, and puts in plenty of effort blocking. Polk has been an absolute stud in camp and could earn weekly volume that he can pair his upside with to have a true Fantasy Football impact straight away as a rookie. Polk is being drafted as the WR66 right now, which is an awesome value if he hits.
2024 Version of 2023 Rashee Rice
- Rice’s 2023 stats: 102 targets, 79 catches, 938 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns, 13.3 Fantasy PPG (#28)
- Qualifier: Second-round rookie who gets drafted to a team with an established quarterback who becomes his team’s WR1 and has a major Fantasy Football impact
- Answer: Ladd McConkey
Ladd McConkey finished his college career at Georgia with 119 receptions, 1,687 receiving yards, and 14 receiving touchdowns. McConkey profiles as a very athletic slot wide receiver (4.39 on the 40-yard dash), who runs routes effectively and is competent in making plays. McConkey landed in LA via the second-round, where Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett all departed this off-season. Justin Herbert averaged 35.1 passing attempts per game in 2023, and Ladd could be his WR1 instantly as a rookie. McConkey has looked solid in camp, and could instantly be a player in Fantasy managers’ lineups weekly this season.
2024 Version of 2023 Jaylen Warren
- Warren’s 2023 stats: 149 rushing attempts, 784 rushing yards, 61 receptions, 370 receiving yards, four total touchdowns, 11.6 Fantasy PPG (#29)
- Qualifier: A team’s RB2 who earns plenty of touches and pass-catching volume that translates to Fantasy Football production weekly
- Answer: Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson landed in New England this off-season via free agency after four years in Washington. Gibson has caught over 40 passes the last three seasons in a row, finished with over 350 receiving yards the last two seasons in a row, scored double-digit touchdowns in his opening two seasons, and finished as a top 17 running back in Fantasy PPG his first two years. With the uncertainty of the pass-catchers in the New England receiving room, a new coaching staff, and unclarity of the direction the quarterback room will go I would not be surprised if both Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are deployed into the gameplan weekly. I can see Stevenson operating as a Najee Harris and Gibson as a Jaylen Warren in 2024. Gibson has a history of pass-catching upside paired with touchdown scoring that has translated well for Fantasy Football, and that can come back to life in New England.
2024 Version of 2023 Dak Prescott
- Prescott’s 2023 stats: 590 passing attempts, 4,516 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, 242 rushing yards, 20.7 Fantasy PPG (#4)
- Qualifier: A quarterback that comes off of an injured season and returns to Fantasy Football dominance with high passing upside
- Answer: Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow played 10 games in 2023 but averaged his highest passing attempts per game of his career with 36.5. Knowing the Bengals offense has a questionable running back room with Zack Moss and Chase Brown, along with one of the league’s best wide receiver duos in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, I would not be surprised if Burrow is the league leader in passing attempts this season. In 2022 and 2021 Burrow threw for over 4,500 passing yards and 34/36 touchdowns, with both seasons over 20 Fantasy PPG. Now healthy, Burrow is a true bounce-back candidate who can have a huge season through the air that can result in a high Fantasy Football finish for the position in 2024.
Who’s your favorite dark horse QB1? Drop some names in the comments below and then make sure to check out our 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit for more great rankings and analysis.