Last time out we saw a highly rated Atlanta superspeedway race that had a somewhat controversial finish with Christopher Bell capturing the win while the caution flag flew on the final lap. The standings look as they should after two superspeedway races with no drivers tallying a Top 5 in both races and just two drivers(Ryan Blaney, John Hunter Nemechek) picking up Top 10 finishes in both races. After two completely different superspeedway/drafting races, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Circuit of the Americas for the Echopark Automotive Grand Prix and the first road course race of the season.
With that, we will not only see a different style of racing which includes right and left turns, but we will also have to shift gears and change up our strategy for fantasy. Before we talk strategy, however, let’s go over some trends at both COTA and on road courses in general.
Circuit of the Americas has traditionally been an F1, IndyCar, and MotoGP circuit with NASCAR joining the party back in 2021. While that means we have a smaller sample size in terms of predicting what will happen this go around, road courses are much more predictable than superspeedways. We see this in the correlation between starting position and finishing position with a crazy high .694 correlation last season and at least a .362 correlation in each of the four races here at COTA. In comparison, the newly configured Atlanta Motor Speedway has seen a correlation over .200 just twice in seven races. With that, we have seen at least five drivers who have started Top 10 finish Top 10 in each of the four races here.
Dominator points are also limited here with a longer track(3.426 miles) and fewer laps. The one change for 2025 at COTA will be the addition of laps which puts the race up to 95 versus just 68 a year ago. Two drivers have led 76%, 92%, and 67% of the total laps over the last three races at COTA with the 2o21 race shortened due to rain. My prediction for this race, with the addition of almost 30 more laps is that we see two to three drivers lead over 20 laps and one driver lead over 50 laps.
The overall lineup building strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel is also going to be much different this week. Instead of loading up on drivers with double-digit place differential, like we have the last two weeks, we will be concentrating a little more on drivers starting near the front who can give us a Top 10 finish.
Before we get to practice and qualifying this weekend, let’s jump in and look at some drivers who have had success here at COTA and have also had road course success.
Echopark Automotive Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Targets
William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
For the second week in a row, Byron sits atop my pre-qualifying rankings in my model as he checks every box. He has won the pole here two years in a row and dominated last year leading 42 of 68 laps en route to the win. That makes it back-to-back Top 5’s at the track and no finish worse than 12th in four trips to the road course. Speaking of road courses, Byron is one of the best drivers in the Cup Series at the track type. Since the start of 2023, he has two wins (T1), five Top 5’s (T1), 136 laps led (1st), and an 11.4 average finish (2nd) across 11 road course races.
Byron has also had a strong start to the season winning a second Daytona 500 and was running Top 10 last week before getting caught up in a wreck. He projects to have another strong run this week and if he qualifies near the front, could once again be the top dominator.
Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing)
Not far behind Byron in my pre-qualifying model is Tyler Reddick. He won the 2023 COTA race and is one of just three drivers to finish Top 10 in all four races at the track. He is also familiar with dominating sitting third in laps led at COTA and second to only Byron with 118 laps led on all road courses since the start of 2023. Looking at that road course history closer, he is also first in average start and second in average run during that 11-race stretch.
Reddick has also had a solid start to the season with a runner-up at the Daytona 500 and despite a 19th-place finish at Atlanta, he had an average run position of 10th. If he qualifies top-5 once again, he will be at the top of my list for potential dominators.
Alex Bowman (#48 Hendrick Motorsports)
If I had to pick a team favorite going into the weekend it would be Hendrick Motorsports. The four HMS drivers make up three of the Top 4 and four of the Top 8 in my initial rankings. They are winners of two of the four races here at COTA and while Bowman is not on that list, he has been extremely consistent with Top 10’s in all four races. That consistency gives him the second-best average finish(4.3) and second-best DraftKings points average(46.5) at this track.
Bowman is consistent here, consistent on road courses in general, and consistently comes to us in the mid-tier of pricing making him one of my top PTS/$ plays again this week.
Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing)
Speaking of value, Chris Buescher has to feel good about returning to a road course as he has been the most consistent driver on the track type going back to the start of the 2023 season. In that 11-race sample, he leads the Cup Series with eight Top 10’s and 11 Top 20 finishes with an impressive 8.7 average finish. For fantasy, he has been even better with an average starting position of 19.9 which combined with his excellent average finish has him leading all drivers with an average of 48.4 DK/47.5 FD points per road course race.
He returns to COTA with back-to-back 8th-place finishes in 2022 and 2023 and will likely be a top value play once again this week.
