This is the last weekend without NFL football until mid-February, so it’s time to make some bold fantasy football predictions ahead of the season. The goal of this exercise is not to get every prediction right, but to analyze what could happen in a reasonable number of outcomes, based on statistics that are reliable and predictive.
These 2025 AFC bold predictions vary in how bold they are. Some of them are quite spicy (like anything to do with Daniel Jones being a good quarterback), while others may look like they were obvious at the end of the season. The purpose of each bold prediction is to help you decide in those tough moments when you’re choosing between players in a last-minute fantasy draft decided whether or not to reach past ADP.
Whiffing on a bold prediction isn’t going to lose you your league, but hitting on one could have you hoisting your league trophy by season’s end.
What!? Your fantasy football league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune in the 2025 season.
Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for Each AFC Team
Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers Triples His Touchdown Total From 2024
In 2024, Zay Flowers’ 116 targets were 44 more than Rashod Bateman, 47 more than Mark Andrews, and 58 more than Isaiah Likely. But that latter trio combined for 26 touchdowns while Flowers finished with just four. That was because Flowers finished with only eight red zone targets (catching four of them). If some of those red zone looks go to Flowers this year, he could easily surpass 10 scores, considering the power of this Baltimore offense.
Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid is a Top Six Tight End in 2025
Dalton Kincaid’s 2024 season will be remembered as the year he underwhelmed and then had a horrific drop in the playoffs when the Bills lost to the Chiefs. But if you look closer under the hood, you can see a tight end who is on the edge of breaking out in a dynamic offense. Kincaid was top ten in target share, air yards, aDOT, and deep targets last year. But he was also number two at the position in unrealized air yards (399). If the Bills score more through the air, and Kincaid keeps up his usage with a little more red zone luck, this is easily a 10-fantasy-point-per-game player.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow Throws 13 Fewer Touchdowns Than in 2024
Simple regression is sometimes all you need to make a bold prediction. In 2024, Joe Burrow’s touchdown rate, success rate, yards per game, total touchdowns, and completion percentage were all far and away his best numbers of his career. Burrow can regress from 43 touchdowns to 30 passing touchdowns this year and still be an elite option. Factor in some natural regression from the offense and Chase Brown getting more red zone looks in 2025, and it’s easy to see how Burrow lands in the 30-32 passing touchdown range.
Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. Has More Receptions Than David Njoku (on the Browns)
Not yet familiar with Harold Fannin Jr.? You soon will be. David Njoku is the incumbent tight end and is an uber-athletic freak with breakaway speed and great hands. We saw him get 97 targets and 64 receptions in just 11 games last year. But Cleveland is not necessarily in win-now mode, and Njoku is not the healthiest tight end on the planet. My prediction is Njoku gets traded this season, and Fannin (who put up 117 catches, 1,555 yards, and 10 touchdowns at Bowling Green last year) takes over as the number one and has more Browns catches than Njoku.
Denver Broncos
Marvin Mims Has Eight 40+ Yard Touchdowns
Marvin Mims has one of the wildest stat comparisons you will find from 2024. He was 83rd in targets among wide receivers (52) and 70th in receiving yards (503). But he was eighth in yards after the catch (475). The Broncos’ plan for Mims is simple. Get him the ball 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage and let him burn past people. Mims’ role as the WR2 on this team is now set, so he sets a career-high in touchdowns in 2025.
Houston Texans
Jaylin Noel Emerges as the Texans’ Second-Best Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is out for the season. The competition is wide open for another pass-catcher to emerge opposite Nico Collins in what should be a better, more pass-friendly offense in 2025. The candidates are Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel. Kirk is the established veteran with slot experience. Higgins is the receiver with the best draft capital from last year (second pick of the second round). But Noel and his big play ability will emerge in the absence of Tank Dell. At almost 15 yards per reception last year at Iowa State, Noel has the ability to become the downfield receiver Houston desperately needs.
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones Finishes as a Top-10 Quarterback in Fantasy Points Per Game
Do I think Daniel Jones is a good quarterback? No. Do I think it was the right decision to start him over Anthony Richardson? No. But in fantasy football, we play the hand we are dealt. And this is going to be the best collection of pass-catchers and the best offensive line Daniel Jones has ever played behind. He has a floor of three fantasy points per game because of his rushing ability. He has a running back that defenses will need to load up against. And he has two above-average wide receivers and a rookie tight end who looks like he is trying to be the 2025 version of Brock Bowers.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Two Rookies Combine for More Carries Than Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby
You may have heard, but the Jacksonville Jaguars poached head coach Liam Coen away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after their success last year. He inherits an offensive system that can be dynamic, but that also has a messy four-man backfield consisting of Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, Bhayshul Tuten, and LeQuint Allen Jr. Tuten and Allen are the two rookies and are the players this new regime wanted in the draft. Etienne is in the last year of his deal and could be traded. Bigsby has no explosion or passing-game ability. By the end of the season, Tuten is the base package back while Allen is in on passing downs and two-minute drills.
Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce Pulls in 10 Touchdowns
Even with all the consternation about Taylor Swift’s fiancé and his “down” season last year, Travis Kelce had some very interesting numbers that should let us know Patrick Mahomes isn’t done with him yet. Yes, he had only 823 yards and three touchdowns, but he was first among all tight ends in red zone targets (26), was third in routes run (493, despite missing Week 18), and was number one in unrealized air yards (401). If those numbers regress back in Kelce’s favor in 2025, his touchdowns will spike. My prediction is that Kelce has fewer yards than in 2024 but 10 touchdowns.
Las Vegas Raiders
No Las Vegas Wide Receiver Catches More Than 65 Passes
This is more of an Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers prediction than it is a Las Vegas wide receiver prediction. Last season, Jakobi Meyers led the wide receivers with 87 receptions. That was 25 less than Brock Bowers and 40 more than Tre Tucker. Now, with Amari Cooper, Jack Bech, and Dont’e Thornton, the wide receiver room is even messier, not to mention Meyers’ unhappiness with his contract. Jeanty and Bowers are going to be the centerpieces of this new offense and might consume 50% of the offensive touches. That leaves the wide receivers, backup running backs, and backup tight ends to fight for the other 50%, leaving all of them largely irrelevant.
Los Angeles Chargers
Omarion Hampton Scores More Fantasy Points Than Ashton Jeanty
Speaking of Ashton Jeanty, he is set up in a great spot, but his fellow rookie running back is in an even better position. The LA Chargers were 10th in rushing play percentage in 2024, while the Las Vegas Raiders were all the way down at 30th. Will that go up with Jeanty? Of course, but the Chargers’ system is built around power running and short passing. That means Omarion Hampton will smash, even if Najee Harris does play most of the season after almost blowing his eye off in a July 4 fireworks incident.
Miami Dolphins
Three Dolphins Skill Position Players Score More Fantasy Points Than Tyreek Hill
There’s an easy case to be made that two players (Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane) outscore Tyreek Hill. A three-week injury or slump or Tua Tagovailoa missing games could bump down Tyreek Hill. But for another player (like Malik Washington, Ollie Gordon II, Darren Waller, etc.) to pass Hill, something will have to have gone way wrong in Miami. I am betting it does, and Hill does not live up to the hype of a top-15 wide receiver this year. His metrics were the worst of his career in 2024, and there are no good vibes coming out of Dolphins camp right now.
New England Patriots
After Four Weeks, Drake Maye is the QB1 Overall
The New England Patriots open up the 2025 NFL season with games against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, and Panthers. The Raiders and Panthers project to have terrible defenses. Miami has guys being signed off the street because their secondary is decimated. Three of the four games are at home. Pittsburgh will be tough, but these four games will be enough to solidify Drake Maye as an every-week starter for fantasy football. With new weapons and an upgraded offensive line, the sky is the limit for Maye this season.
New York Jets
Garrett Wilson Finishes Outside the Top 25 WRs in Fantasy Points Per Game
The consensus ADP for Garrett Wilson is around pick 40 right now (WR17), and falling. The New York Jets have telegraphed that this is going to be a very run-heavy offense in 2025, and quarterback Justin Fields has been known to scramble frequently whenever he faces pressure of any kind in his dropbacks. The Jets are implied to score touchdowns at one of the lowest rates in the league this season (Cleveland and New Orleans are worse). Wilson was just 56th in yards per route run among wide receivers last year, as he continues to be inefficient at times.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren and Kaleb Johnson are Both Top 25 Running Backs
In 2024, under fantasy football arch villain Arthur Smith, the Pittsburgh Steelers finished fifth in the NFL with a 48.3% of their plays being called as a rush. And that number is with the last three games only at 36.9% because they were often trailing. The Steelers are not going to give up on the run game, no matter what happens this year, and they will especially lean on it if Aaron Rodgers is injured. Warren and Johnson make an effective duo in the backfield with Najee Harris gone, and both will be fantasy-roster viable all year long.
Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley is a Top 10 Wide Receiver in Half-PPR Formats
Can you name two or three other Tennessee Titans’ wide receivers? If you said Tyler Lockett and Elic Ayomanor, you are correct, but also realize this is the only real competition for Calvin Ridley in wide receiver targets this season. Ridley was first in the NFL in air yards last season (1,883), but also first in unrealized air yards because Will Levis was throwing him the ball most of the year. Ridley is an elite route-winner and is explosive with the ball, and now has what should be a massive quarterback upgrade with Cam Ward. That, plus the lack of target competition, has me trying to grab Calvin Ridley wherever I can this year.
For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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