NHL Player Usage Trends: NHL Playoff Edition

Welcome to this week’s NHL Player Usage Trends. Now that we’re five games deep into the first round, we have a solid view of how players are being used. Playoff usage can be a key indicator for how a player will be used next season.

More Fantasy Hockey Analysis: | Goalie Streamers | NHL Usage Trends | Buy-Low, Sell-High | NHL Schedule Preview | Fantasy Hockey Cold List | Prospect Report | NHL Injury Report | Fantasy Hockey Waiver Wire

NHL Player Usage Trends

Matvei Michkov, Philadelphia Flyers

Through the first four games of the series, Michkov was barely averaging 10 minutes per game. He was a healthy scratch in game five. Game six resulted in a bump in ice time to 13 minutes at the end of regulation.

Michkov faced the sophomore slump with a slight drop in production (63 to 51 points) and a two-minute decrease in ice time.

These are real growing pains for Michkov. It’s one thing to play poorly in your own end when you are producing. It’s another when you aren’t scoring. That’s why Michkov is getting fourth-line minutes.

A buy-low window may be opening on Michkov, small as it may be. Tocchet isn’t going anywhere as coach, which means Michkov will need to adjust his playing style.

He did pick up a primary assist on the series-clinching goal last night. We’ll see how this affects his ice time against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Ben Kindel, Pittsburgh Penguins

Kindel has also seen his ice time dip in the playoffs. After averaging 15:04 in the regular season, Kindel has seen this drop to 12:37 per game in the playoffs.

Making the Penguins out of camp was a surprise. Everything he has provided this season has been unexpected. A rookie losing ice time isn’t much of a surprise. We can reasonably expect Kindel to increase his ice time and production next year.

I’m not expecting stardom, but he is the type of prospect that could provide linear progression and become a valuable fantasy asset.

J.J. Peterka, Utah Mammoth

If you’re looking for a buy-low opportunity this summer or a late-round draft steal, look no further than Peterka. Coming off a 68-point season, averaging 0.88 points per game, Peterka did not translate that production to Utah this year. He played two minutes less per game, including a minute less on the power play, which contributed to his disappointing 47-point season.

Things have gotten exponentially worse in the first four games of the playoffs, where he’s averaging just 10:38 per game (going into game five). No one envisioned Peterka playing on a fourth line with Brandon Tanev and Kevin Stenlund. I’m not sure anyone foresaw Kailer Yamamoto playing alongside Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.

I’ve brought this up before; we often lose sight of the human aspect of trades. It can be a massive adjustment to move teams. Yamamoto is a journeyman at this point in his career. Regardless of the chemistry he’s displaying on the second line, Peterka will be given long looks in the top six next season.

If you believe he’s closer to the .88-point-per-game player, start kicking tires now.

Peyton Krebs, Buffalo Sabres

It’s been the opposite story for Krebs this postseason. He was riding shotgun to Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch for the last two-thirds of the season, but the production didn’t follow. Averaging 13:46 per game, Krebs was not getting normal minutes for someone playing on the top line. Even without time on the first power play unit, Krebs’ ice time was lower than expected.

Well, through five games, Krebs is averaging 16:16 per game and is producing at a point-per-game pace. He looks to be solidifying his place alongside Thompson.

Krebs has played 372 regular-season games, so he’s far surpassed his 200-game breakout threshold, and we didn’t see a blip.  He appears to be a late bloomer. There’s little denying he has the offensive chops to be a top-six producer. He simply hasn’t been able to translate it across a full season.

I started acquiring Krebs across leagues in the second half of the regular season, when I noticed his deployment trend. The ice time bump in the playoffs is making me double down on my belief he’s creeping toward a breakout into the 55-point range.