At 1 p.m. ET, your lineups lock, and suddenly every notification feels personal. Your bargain receiver scores early. The expensive running back disappears as if he never played. Friends start texting you their victory laps with three quarters left in the 1 p.m. game. Dogs and cats living together in harmony. The world seems to be spinning out of control.
Welcome to the Week 7 Money Makers and Heart Breakers. Where I will try to help bring order to that chaos before it happens to you on Sunday.
Before you chase last week’s breakout, check the workload, matchup, and price. We’re using volume, fantasy points against information, and the Reedy Score™ to find our Money Makers and determine the Heart Breakers who could leave us staring silently at our phones.
Now let’s get out there and shake that money maker to break some hearts in Week 7!
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Money Makers and Heartbreakers for Week 7 NFL DFS
💰 Money Maker – A player expected to outperform his salary and ownership.
💔 Heart Breaker – A popular or appealing option who may produce below expectations.
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Detroit allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. So the matchup is the best possible. Love has scored 2 touchdowns in every single game this season. He is the king of consistency there. We have a guy who scores multiple touchdowns weekly in the best possible matchup. Could it get any better? Well, it does. This game is also the highest over/under on the main slate, with a combined total expectation of 53.5 points. I will most likely be a Packer Stacker this week.
- FanDuel: $7,600
- DraftKings: $6,000
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will play the Raiders in Week 7. The Raiders give up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Quarterbacks average 253 yards and 2 touchdowns per game against the Raiders. Stafford has passed for over 300 yards and/or multiple touchdowns in five straight games. I like me some Stafford this week.
- FanDuel: $7,700
- DraftKings: $6,400
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud threw for 312 yards in Week 6 and now faces a Giants defense allowing the seventh-most quarterback points. Nico Collins and the emerging Jaylin Noel give him multiple receiving options. Let’s not even pretend the Texans can run the ball well. That means there will be passing volume in Week 7. Yay, we love volume almost as much as bacon.
- FanDuel: $7,500
- DraftKings: $5,700
Geno Smith, New York Jets
- FanDuel: $6,900
- DraftKings: $5,100
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
- FanDuel: $7,200
- DraftKings: $5,000
Quarterback Notes: Geno Smith faces a Dolphins defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. QBs average 239 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Dolphins. Bo Nix gets to play the Cardinals, who have given up multiple quarterback touchdowns in all but one game this season. The Cardinals give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Running Backs
Braelon Allen, New York Jets
Allen has double-digit fantasy scores in 3 straight games. All against defenses that defend the run well. Allen handled 17 carries and 19 touches in Week 6; that volume should continue. This week the Jets play the Dolphins. Miami allows the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Breece Hall missed Wednesday’s practice; if he somehow plays, pivot to him. But with Allen playing so well, there is no need to rush Hall back into the lineup for the Jets.
- FanDuel: $6,300
- DraftKings: $5,900
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs returns from the bye against a Packers defense allowing the fourth-most running back fantasy points. Gibbs has scored at least 1 touchdown in every game this season. The Packers give up 1.5 running-back touchdowns per game. Second most in the league. Gibbs is punching at least one in this week. GIBBY!!!
- FanDuel: $9,800
- DraftKings: $9,800
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving got 19 carries and 21 touches in Week 6, which is the volume we want to see. Bucky gets volume. In Week 7, the Buccaneers will play the Panthers. The Panthers give up the eighth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Bucky gets a good matchup. You know what this means? In Week 7, Bucky gets fantasy points.
NOTE: Bucky missed practice Wednesday with an illness. If he misses the game Sunday for some reason, Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker become potential pivots at great price points.
- FanDuel: $7,200
- DraftKings: $6,100
Tyler Allgeier, Arizona Cardinals
- FanDuel: $5,700
- DraftKings: $5,000
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
- FanDuel: $5,900
- DraftKings: $6,200
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
- FanDuel: $7,900
- DraftKings: $7,000
Running Back Notes: Jeremyah Love appears to miss Week 7 right now. That puts Allgeier and Bam Knight in play against a Broncos defense that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Aaron Jones has had massive volume for the Vikings this season; he has 22+ touches in 4 straight games. Kyren is Kyren. Williams also gets a Raiders team that gives up the second-most rushing yards and the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs.
Wide Receivers
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
The bad news is that JJ McCarthy takes over at quarterback for the Giants in Week 7. The Good news is McCarthy peppered Nabers and Likely with targets in Week 6. Nabers turned 15 Week 6 targets into 165 receiving yards, and Houston allows wide receivers the second-most fantasy points. Ipso facto, Nabers is a good play in Week7.
- FanDuel: $7,900
- DraftKings: $6,800
Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers
Golden caught 13 passes for 104 yards in Week 6; he’s racking up yards this season. The Packers will play the Lions in Week 7. Detroit allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. That means you play both Christian Watson and Golden wherever you can. It is truly a Golden opportunity.
- FanDuel: $6,700
- DraftKings: $6,000
Brandin Cooks, San Francisco 49ers
Electromagnetic hypersensitivity seems to have taken hold of the Niners’ wide receiver room. Apparently, practicing next to a substation is bad for older wideouts. They need some aluminum foil blankets to stop things from breaking bad, like Chuck McGill. But every event creates opportunity; this week, Brandin Cooks gets opportunity. The Niners play the Falcons. Atlanta allows the eighth-most receiver points. If Mike Evans or Deebo Samuel somehow manage to play pivot.
- FanDuel: $5,400
- DraftKings: $4,200
Denzel Boston, Cleveland Browns
- FanDuel: $5,700
- DraftKings: $5,400
Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans
- FanDuel: $5,800
- DraftKings: $5,100
Jaylen Waddle, Denver Broncos
- FanDuel: $6,500
- DraftKings: $5,500
Wide Receiver Notes: Boston has a foot injury that we will want to monitor. He also faces a Titans defense that gives up the tenth-most fantasy points to WRs. Waddle has a great matchup against the Cardinals; in his only other soft matchup all season, he caught 8 passes for 138 yards. Tate faces a Browns defense that has allowed 7 touchdowns over the first 6 games of the season.
Tight Ends
Mason Taylor, New York Jets
Taylor had six targets in Week 6, the second most on the team, which means there will be some volume here. The Dolphins are up in Week 7, and Miami allows the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. He is a bottom-of-the-barrel tight end play in Week 7 that could produce big for you.
- FanDuel: $4,700
- DraftKings: $2,800
Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams
Lots of people are talking about Tyler Higbee, and he could be a great play in Week 7 too. But Parkinson drew six targets, compared with Higbee’s four, in Week 6, and Las Vegas allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Parkinson has been Stafford’s favorite red-zone target in the past, and Davante Adams is out. You should look longingly at Parkinson the same way Stafford does in the red zone.
- FanDuel: $5,100
- DraftKings: $3,000
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
We have talked a lot about the Week 7 matchup against the Lions. This Lions defense gives up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Tight ends average 109 yards and almost 2 touchdowns against the Lions. Kraft had eight targets in Week 6 and now faces the defense that allows the most fantasy points to tight ends. Be a Packer Stacker in Week 7, yes I know I am repeating myself.
NOTE: I was a teacher, then a corporate trainer. If you want someone to remember something, you mention it three times, minimum. So in Week 7, be a Packer Stacker.
- FanDuel: $5,500
- DraftKings: $4,700
Evan Engram, Denver Broncos
- FanDuel: $5,000
- DraftKings: $3,000
Tight End Notes: Engram gets a Cardinals team that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. I like George Kittle to be a target monster against the Falcons in Week 7.
Defenses
New York Jets
Miami gives up the third-most fantasy points to opposing offenses, and Malik Willis has thrown four interceptions, taken 14 sacks, and fumbled five times through five games (giggle). The Jets defense is well-positioned to produce in Week 7. I don’t know what else I could say.
- FanDuel: $4,900
- DraftKings: $2,900
San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons are up in Week 7. Atlanta allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing offenses. Teams average 2.5 sacks and 1.2 interceptions per week against the Falcons. The Falcons gave up 5 sacks and 3 fumble recoveries to the Bears in Week 6. I like the Niners better with Joey Bosa playing than without him.
- FanDuel: $4,700
- DraftKings: $3,200
Houston Texans
The Giants allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ defenses. Now, McCarthy will start for New York for the first time. A quarterback known for mistakes is playing in a mistake-prone offense; what could go wrong for the Giants? Everything, and we are here to capitalize on that.
- FanDuel: $5,000
- DraftKings: $3,400
Check out all of our Week 7 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings
💔 Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts play the Vikings in Week 7. Minnesota allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Jones enters this matchup after throwing two interceptions in Week 6. The Colts’ pass protection and turnover issues make it hard for Jones to rebound. Let’s face it, this was an easy call. In the past 2 games, the Vikings have allowed zero passing touchdowns, and neither team has passed for over 100 yards. This will be bad.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco allows the seventh-fewest quarterback points, making Penix a difficult investment in DFS or season-long. Looks like a 225-yard, single-touchdown game from Penix in Week 7. That doesn’t make me sick to my stomach, but it also doesn’t turn me on.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Taylor handled 23 touches in Week 6, so the volume will most likely be there. The problem is paying a premium against Minnesota, which allows the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. I know you are playing him in season-long no matter what. Just please don’t expect a monster game in Week 7.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
Pollard’s 19 Week 6 touches give him a workload you can respect, but Cleveland allows running backs the second-fewest fantasy points. There is a saying: “don’t get cute”, so please don’t get cute with Pollard. Yes, I know this was a super easy one. Sometimes even I need a gimme.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Hubbard just delivered 120 rushing yards and a touchdown on 28 carries in Week 6. In Week 7, the Panthers play the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay allows the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. I love me some Hubba Bubba Hubbard this season, but this is not the week to play him in DFS.
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
The Jets play the Dolphins in Week 7. The Dolphins give up the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. You can run on the Dolphins and make a lot of little rinky-dink passes against them. That is what the Jets will do, and they’ll succeed.
Keenan Allen, Indianapolis Colts
Allen has drawn 20 targets over the past two games. If you are reading this, then you know I love volume like that. But in Week 7 the Colts play the Vikings. The Vikings, you see, give up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. I am still playing him in season-long PPR, just not DFS.
Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders
Tucker’s 97 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6 were rewarding for anyone who used him. Now he faces a Rams defense allowing the fifth-fewest receiver points. Buying another multiple-touchdown performance is an expensive way to chase last week’s points; I would let someone else make that investment. Don’t be a sucker for Tucker.
Tight Ends
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
Warren had a big game in Week 5, then missed Week 6 with a groin injury. If he returns, he gets Minnesota’s defense, which allows the fewest tight end points. I say no to Warren.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Pitts caught five passes for 60 yards and two touchdowns last week, making my Heart Breakers call look bad. Hey, sometimes I get some wrong. That said, I am still passing on Pitts this week against a San Francisco defense that allows the third-fewest tight end points. If there is one thing we know, it is we can not trust Kyle Pitts.
NOTE: Brock Bowers has a horrible matchup too; I almost wrote about him here. He is dinged up, which might stall his production a little, but Brock Bowers is mostly matchup-proof.
The Reedy Rule for Week 7
Last week’s points don’t come with this week’s salary. Pay for repeatable touches, targets and scoring opportunities, and make sure the matchup supports the price.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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