Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

Last week, all three of my recommendations won. At this point in your pool, options are really starting to run thin. Not only do you need to comb through teams that you still have available, are not on bye, and have a good matchup, but you also need to think about the future. Most of the top teams this week still have a lot of future value. Whether you’re in a small pool and willing to take on the biggest favorites or in dire need of a low-picked sleeper team, I have you covered. Here are my best survivor pool picks in Week 9.

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Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Picks

San Francisco 49ers (-10) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

While I don’t love using a team with as much talent and future value as the 49ers in a week with so many big spreads, they actually have a lot of appeal. The 49ers are 1st overall in DVOA. While an upset loss to the Falcons two weeks ago hurts, it is not the end of the world. Nobody has been invincible in the NFL this year, and San Francisco still ranks first in the division at 6-1. The Raiders are performing much better than most expected, but they’re still 25th in DVOA and 31st on defense. While they have kept things close against the Chiefs and Bills, they are simply not taking care of business against their better opponents. The 49ers are the better team on paper; they’re at home, and they’re coming off a bye week. There is no debate that they are the better team.

The focus should then shift to how much you want to save the 49ers. To most football fans, the 49ers are a team that could beat anyone in the league, and nobody would be surprised. While that is valuable for survivor pools, it is not the only factor. You cannot play it safe every week, but you should maximize your safety by looking at the remaining schedule. For most survivor pool picks, you want to have a healthy spread favoring you while at home. The 49ers host the Seahawks, Rams, and Eagles after this. Every other game is an away game, with the exception of a “home” game against the Vikings in Mexico City. The 49ers have a large international fanbase, especially in Mexico, but it is not the same as a normal home game. The only game you are considering the 49ers at home is against the Eagles in Week 17. While that is a great spot to try and hold them for, there are a lot of other teams you can use that week.

There is a good chance that you have already used the 49ers. I recommended them a handful of times this year, but you may still have them available. In a much smaller pool where you can afford to forgo future value and bet on the safe pick, the 49ers are as good as they get.

Chicago Bears (-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just won a game without completing a single pass. Some may view it as a fluke, but the Buccaneers are 5th in DVOA and now boast the league’s best defense. They are unlikely to ever win another game without a completion, but they should be competitive throughout the year. The Chicago Bears are only 13th in DVOA, but they look much better than that. Chicago had to deal with a slow start and a combination of Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum for a few weeks. When Caleb Williams is healthy, though, the Bears may be one of the best teams in the league. Williams is 4-1 as a starter, only losing 9-3 to the Vikings in a rainstorm. In every other game, the Bears have scored at least 30 points, including a win in Seattle against the second-best defense in the league.

Ben Johnson has done wonders for this offense, and he has fully unlocked Caleb Williams. The Buccaneers are not a great matchup despite a 6-point spread at home. However, the Bears are more than capable of winning this game as long as Caleb Williams is upright. The Bears have a home game against the Saints and an away game against the Dolphins, but neither looks as good as this one. Chicago has very little future value despite their talent, so this is a great pivot that has a bit more safety than some other picks. You get the luxury of avoiding the highest-picked teams, like the Lions, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Jaguars. You can hold onto those teams for the future and hope that there are a few upsets to thin out your league. The Bears are a juicy survivor pool pick in Week 9.

New York Giants (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Taking a divisional road game may not be the wisest. However, if you are willing to take a risk, there is immense value here. The New York Giants lead the NFC East and are coming off a bye week. They visit an Eagles team that just got thrashed by the Commanders. Tanner McKee is clearly not working, and the Eagles will be starting Joe Milton at QB this week. Milton has only thrown 53 passes in five games with the Patriots and Cowboys over two years. That’s not a great sample size, but Milton is a 6th-round backup stepping into a brutal situation. The Eagles project to be without their top WR, DeVonta Smith, once again. Philadelphia ranks 28th overall in DVOA while the Giants rank 26th.

J.J. McCarthy has been solid in very limited time with the Giants. In his first start, he went to Houston and beat the Texans in overtime. The Giants have their share of issues, but they have real offensive weapons in Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely, and Cam Skattebo. Additionally, their defense has some solid pieces. Jevon Holland has three interceptions, and Abdul Carter looks ferocious on the defensive line. Milton is a question mark, though, and that is generally not good for survivor pools. However, at this point in the season, you need to consider taking risks. The Giants are the better team and are facing a 6th-round QB in a terrible situation. It’s unlikely that the Giants will be favored by this much again in the season. The exception would be Week 18 when they host the Eagles. However, playoff teams tend to bench their better players in Week 18, so projecting any games that late is mostly pointless. The Giants are a frisky pivot for your survivor pool in Week 9.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!