Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to consistent predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
You’ve got that hangover from the big game, and the only thing that can cure it…A BIG OL’ NBA DFS SLATE, BABY! LET’S GO!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Feb. 8
Wizards vs. Bulls (-2.5); Total 236.5
My Wizards are so bad, friends. So bad. I could start talking about Net Ratings and pace statistics, but at the end of the day, they aren’t able to score more points than the team they’re playing. That’s the biggest rule of winning. I like the Bulls in this one.
DFS Targets: Russ is likely sitting on the second half of a back to back, so Ish Smith becomes a near must play in this slate. Raul Neto is also a potential value SMASH. Brad Beal will continue to do Brad Beal things. I’m going to avoid everyone else on that team. The Bulls are interesting with Lavine, Coby White, and Thaddeus Young is continuing to outperform his salary, despite his low usage. I’m also officially in the Patrick Williams hive. The dude is active. That goes for Denzel Valentine, too. You’ll want Chicago exposure on this slate.
Rockets (-3) vs. Hornets; Total 223
We’ve got a top tercile team vs. a bottom tercile team in the 10th vs. 21st net ratings. This game favors the Rockets. If the overall matchup doesn’t kill the Hornets, then the Rockets’ 4th best league-leading pace, likely will.
DFS Targets: The Rockets will be going up and down the floor. We’ll favor guards for this one. I like Oladipo, Eric Gordon, House Jr. and Sterling Brown for value. Cousins was a great play while his salary was down, but as he continues to put up stats, he’s going to get riskier. I’ll still put him in the player pool for now. For the Hornets, I love LaMelo, Rozier, Hayward, and Miles Bridges.
Raptors (-2) vs. Grizzlies; Total 223
Two top half teams in pace should keep this an entertaining game, with not a lot of defense. The Raptors have the more potent offense, so I’ll give them the edge.
DFS Targets: Let’s focus on the guards for this one with Morant, VanVleet, Lowry, Brooks, Powell, and Anderson. I’ll fade Siakam, due to the likely pace of this game, but Chris Boucher is more interesting from a salary/play archetype perspective.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks (-9); Total 224.5
Two bad teams. No defense. Let’s load up.
DFS Targets: Luka is in my player pool, despite his most recent career performance. His salary was already high enough that he won’t get a wild salary bump. Kristaps should also be in your pool. The entire T-Wolves starting five should be considered for your player pool in Rubio, Reid, Edwards, Vanderbilt, and Beasley. Sub Russell for Rubio (obviously) if he plays. This should have one of the highest totals on the slate.
Warriors vs. Spurs (-1.5); Total 233.5
Two top-10 defenses going up against each other. I don’t love this type of matchup for fantasy purposes. I’m not saying to fade it, but there are far better plays available.
DFS Targets: What a performance by Steph the other night! Love to see it…but let’s fade him tonight against a top 10 defense in the Spurs. I am likely to fade the entire Warriors’ offense because if Steph can’t get going, I don’t expect other players to pick up his slack. On the Spurs, I like Keldon Johnson and that’s about it. We can find better values elsewhere tonight.
Cavaliers vs. Suns (-7); Total 214.5
Top 10 vs. a bottom 3 team in Net Rating…carry on. Nothing to see here. Suns win. Even if CP3 is out.
DFS Targets: I don’t mess around with potential blowout games. You never who will be responsible for the blowout, or if it will be a team effort. The Suns were just involved in one the other night. It’s too hard to guess who will outperform their salary. Look elsewhere for your player pool.
Bucks (-4) vs. Nuggets; Total 233.5
This should be the best game of the night! From a net rating perspective, we have the Bucks at #1 and Nuggets at #6. Jokic is coming off a game where he was told to carry the load, and dropped 50! The Bucks have Giannis. Another interesting aspect is that the Bucks run a fast paced offense, while the Nuggets play slowly through their center. I think the Bucks take this one, especially if Murray doesn’t play.
DFS Targets: We like Giannis, Jrue, Khris Middleton, and Donte DiVincenzo. On the Nuggets, I’ll play Jokic, but I’ll likely be underweight. MPJ is very interesting at his price. I like Will Barton taking on scoring load if Jamal Murray doesn’t play.
Thunder vs. Lakers (-10); Total 216
Shai vs. Lebron James and Anthony Davis. You know how this will go. Fade.
DFS Targets: We don’t need to target potential blowout games on a big slate like this. Let’s start prepping for Tuesday!
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you also play season-long fantasy basketball you’ll want to check out Mike Omelan’s latest Waiver Wire column for a few ideas on how to add to your squad.
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