The shortened Hawaii swing wrapped up on Sunday with a Chris Gotterup win at the Sony Open. The focus now shifts to the West Coast as the PGA Tour heads to La Quinta, California, for The American Express. A very good field, including the World #1 Scottie Scheffler and four of the Top 10 players in the DataGolf World Rankings, will tee it up this week.
The American Express stands out on the PGA Tour calendar, not just for its desert setting but for its unique three-course rotation and extended cut format. Players will tackle the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and Nicklaus Tournament Course once over the first three days. Those players who make the cut will then play the Pete Dye Stadium Course for Sunday’s final round.
That event also differs from regular events, being a Pro-am, which also leads to much easier setups. In each year the Stadium Course has been the main host for this event, the winning score has been in the -20’s with a record low -29 in 2024(Nick Dunlap). With early forecasts showing hot weather and low winds, we can once again expect a birdie-fest, so fill your player pool with golfers who can make a ton of them!
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The Courses: Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, Nicklaus Tournament Course
The Pete Dye Stadium Course is the toughest test in the rotation and the site of the final round, featuring penal water hazards, visually demanding tee shots, and Dye’s signature risk-reward design. Of all his course designs, the Stadium Course best resembles TPC Sawgrass, which can be a useful course comp this week. With any Pete Dye course, positioning off the tee and accurate iron play lead the way when building a stat model. While it is the toughest of the three courses this week, it still ranks consistently outside the Top 30 in difficulty on the PGA Tour.
La Quinta Country Club is the shortest and most scorable of the three courses. It has wider fairways, which can cater more to a “bomb and gouge” type player.
The Nicklaus Tournament Course falls in the middle of the three in terms of scoring and, like La Quinta CC, has generous fairways which can lead to a lot of short to mid iron approaches.
When putting together a player pool with a three-course rotation, I am building a much broader stats model. This week, I am concentrating on Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, and Strokes Gained: Putting.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the American Express Champion
Strokes Gained: Approach
Iron play and approach shots are something I weigh every week, but this week it gets a bump. With a winner likely in the mid -20’s, you are going to need birdies, and the best way to set those up is with a strong iron game. Looking at the results from 2025, each of the Top 5 and seven of the Top 8 players hit at least 75% of greens in regulation, including the winner, Sepp Strak,a who tied for the field lead 83.3% GIR. The accuracy at the top stood out even more in 2024, where 15 of the top 16 hit at least 75% greens in regulation.
Ben Griffin (+1800)
Griffin’s iron game has steadily improved throughout his career, as he was ranked 89th in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2024, 34th in 2024, and jumped up to 22nd in 2025. That improvement propelled him to three wins last year, and if he continues to hit greens at an elite level, more wins will come. I think it could start as early as this week, and it helps that he returns to the AMEX with elite course history, having made the cut in all three trips, including back-to-back Top 10’s the last two years.
Rico Hoey (+8000 Outright / +650 Top 10)
I talked about Hoey as a longshot pick in my 2026 season preview, and his elite iron play will have him on my betcard a ton this season, starting this week. He is coming off a disappointing showing in Hawaii(50th), but did extend his streak to 10 straight tournaments, gaining strokes on approach. He ended the 2025 season ranked 8th on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and would have likely already had a win had his putter not been a letdown. The good news is that he has gained strokes putting in three straight events. His time is coming, and I will be betting the outright and Top 10 markets this week.
Birdie or Better %
As I mentioned in the intro, the winning score at the American Express has reached -20 in 10 straight, going back to 2016. It is a birdie fest this week, so let’s look at some players who fit that model.
Pierceson Coody (+7500 Outright / +600 Top 10)
Another youngster on the verge of becoming a PGA Tour winner. He came close a couple of times in 2025 with 3rd place finishes at the 3M Open and Bank of Utah Championship this past fall. He led the tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in 2025 and, with average irons and slightly below-average putting, was able to finish 26th in Birdie or Better %. It is very encouraging to see an improvement in the irons as he has gained in four straight while also gaining with the putter in three straight. Like Hoey, I will be betting Coody consistently as both approach their first career wins.
Harry Hall (+3500 Outright)
Harry Hall checks every box for a birdie-fest like The American Express. Fresh off a T6 at the Sony Open, Hall continues to profile as one of the PGA Tour’s most reliable scoring specialists. He ranked 3rd in Birdie or Better % last season, and his scoring wasn’t isolated to one hole type—finishing top-25 in Birdie or Better on par 3s, par 4s, and par 5s.
That all-around birdie production is exactly what matters in a three-course rotation where winning scores routinely push well into the -20s. He is once again a staple on my betcard.
Strokes Gained: Putting
If looking to contend at a low-scoring event like this, it takes more than just hitting greens; it also takes four straight days of riding a hot putter. Let’s look at some of the players who are the best at it.
Sam Burns (+2000)
We can’t talk putting without highlighting Sam Burns, who has finished each of the last five seasons on Tour ranked 14th or better in Strokes Gained: Putting, including leading the Tour in 2025. It was the poor tee to green game that led to no wins and just six Top 10’s last year, but the good news is that he has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine events coming into this week. He is another player who has enjoyed success here at the AMEX, finishing 29th or better in five of six trips, including two Top 10’s and four Top 20 finishes.
Jacob Bridgeman (+10000 Outright / +900 Top 10 / +400 Top 25)
One more long shot to cap this thing off. Bridgeman took a big step forward in his second season with five Top 10’s, four of which went for Top 5 finishes. His success was led by the putter as he finished the season ranked 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting. He has started the 2026 season red-hot with four rounds in the 70’s backed by 22 birdies at the Sony Open, good for a 4th place finish. The Top 10 and Top 25 markets are my favorite bets, but I will also sprinkle some on the longshot outright as well.
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