The Farmers Insurance Open returns to Torrey Pines, one of the PGA Tour’s most demanding stops, where length, elite ball-striking, and patience separate contenders from the field. This week, the 145-man field consists of two of the Top 10 (Schauffele, Spaun) and 25 of the Top 50 in the DataGolf World Rankings.
While we have another multi-course rotation like the American Express, there are only two courses this week, so back to a regular 36-hole cut. Players will play a round at each of the Torrey Pines North and South courses, with the Top 65 and ties moving on to the weekend, where both rounds will be played on the South Course.
Create a fantasy golf commissioner league, invite your friends and “master” your draft this season (no green jacket required). Our FREE PGA fantasy golf league manager is the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry.
The Course: Torrey Pines (North), Torrey Pines (South)
At 7,258 yards, the North Course is, by far, the more scoreable of the two courses. Not only is it over 500 yards shorter, but the average green size is also about 1,000 yards larger than the South Course. If you are playing showdown over the first two rounds of the tournament, targeting North Course players each day is key.
The South Course is an absolute beast this week at 7,765 yards on the scorecard and is easily the longest regular course on the PGA Tour. That length, combined with the smaller-than-average greens, creates a difficult scoring environment, and the reason the South Course ranks in the Top 5 in scoring difficulty annually.
The two courses do have some similarities, as both are set up with rough around 4″ this week, and both courses have Poa Annua greens.
When building a stats model this week for outright betting and full tournament contests, my analysis will ride solely on the South Course setup.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open Champion
Driving Distance/Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
The South Course is an absolute monster at 7,765 yards. Seven of the 10 par 4 holes come in over 450 yards, with three of them at 480 or more yards. Adding to the importance of distance this week are the Par 5’s as two of them come in at 615 and 621 yards.
Jake Knapp (+4100 Outright / +500 Top 10 / +163 Top 20)
Knapp checks a lot of boxes in my model this week, starting with driving distance. Looking at last season’s stats, he ranks 8th in this field in driving distance and breaking it down further is Top 10 in both distance and SG: Off the Tee over the last 24 rounds. Adding to the distance, he also ranks 8th in SG: Putting, 21st in Proximity from 200+, 22nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 8th in Birdie or Better. This would explain the course history as he has finished 3rd and 32nd in his two trips to Torrey Pines. I am highest on the Top 10 and Top 20 markets, but will also have the outright on my card this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+6300 Outright / +600 Top 10 / +240 Top 20)
He finished runner-up in his only visit to Torrey Pines in 2024 and fits the model to contend once again this week. He ranked 3rd overall in driving distance a year ago and combined that with some terrific iron play, ranking 11th in that category. Across 17 starts, he also had a runner-up, three Top 10’s, and seven Top 25 finishes. He also comes in with some nice form coming off a T4 at the Dubai Desert Classic and has four finishes of 14th or better in his last five worldwide starts. Like Knapp, I will have more on the secondary markets, but also like the outright number posted above, which I found on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Strokes Gained: Approach w/ Emphasis on Long Irons
I am always looking for players who are trending with their irons, and this week is no different. With the South Course’s length(7,765 yards), focusing on approaches from 200+ yards is crucial when building your models.
Xander Schauffele (+1800 Outright)
Schauffele is one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour, finishing 14th or better in SG: Approach in each of the last five years. He also comes in ranked 17th in this field in Proximity from 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds. He also has the distance to contend here at Torrey Pines and has shown it plenty in the past, finishing 13th or better at the Farmers in three of his last four years, including two Top 10 finishes. He is my favorite outright bet at the top this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000 Outright / +320 Top 10)
Despite losing strokes putting at the Sony Open, Matsuyama picked up a T13 to start the season thanks to an elite Tee to Green game(10th in the field). That checks out with the profile, as he ranks (in this field) 9th in SG: Approach, 2nd in SG: Around the Green, and has elite long iron proximity, ranking 4th from 175-200 yards and 3rd in 200+ yards. He returns to the Farmers Insurance Open with some plus course history, having made nine straight cuts with four finishes of 13th or better. If he can get the putter to cooperate this week, he should be looking at a Top 10 and could easily contend for a win.
Strokes Gained: Short Game
I am sort of lumping two stats together this week, as both scrambling and putting are very important and correlate closely to success here at Torrey Pines. I mentioned earlier that Torrey Pines South has one of the lowest GIR rates on the PGA Tour, and that naturally leads to a lot of scrambling for par. On the putting side of things, this is the first test on true Poa greens in 2026, so we will also be looking at that closely, as well.
Pierceson Coody (+550 Top 10 / +275 Top 20)
After recording just two Top 10’s all of last year, Coody is off to a hot start in 2026 with Top 10 finishes in each of the first two events. Going back to the fall season, he has now made seven straight cuts with a Top 10 and five Top 25 finishes. While the stats from last year don’t exactly pop off the page, he stands out more for his recent form with the short game. He is one of just four players in this field to rank in the Top 15 in both SG: Around the Green and SG: Putting on Poa over the last 24 rounds in each sample. On top of that, he is also 17th in SG: Off the Tee, 11th in Driving Distance, 14th in Birdie or Better, and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. Fire up Coody in the Top 10 and Top 20 markets this week.
Garrick Higgo (+6600 Outright / +475 Top 10 / +220 Top 20)
Higgo is coming off an electric fall season where he finished 7th or better in all four events, including a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms Championship. That success was backed by an excellent tee to green game (16th in the field over the last 24 rounds). In that same sample size, he ranks 3rd in SG: Short Game, sitting 28th in SG: Around the Green and 12th in SG: Putting. He adds distance off the tee(10th) and a strong iron game(24th), and if he can putt well on Poa this week, he has the upside to grab his fifth straight Top 10 and possibly contend.
Fantrax is one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites in the fantasy sports industry, and we’re not stopping anytime soon. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at Fantrax.com!
