The Florida swing continues this week as the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. It also marks the fourth signature event of the season giving us an elite field of 72 players including nine of the Top 10 and 47 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. This week is also a player-hosted event which means there will be a cut of the Top 50 and ties plus any player within 10 of the lead.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
While the first leg of the tough Florida swing disappointed last week at PGA National, I don’t see that happening this week at Bay Hill. The course is a par 72 that is listed at 7,466 yards on the scorecard and is another course consistently ranked as one of the toughest tests in golf.
Like PGA National, there is tons of danger off the tee but with the added distance players can’t afford to lay back as much. Another similarity to PGA National are the water hazards with it coming into play on nine holes. The greens are a bit bigger this week at Bay Hill but normally play much tougher in the fast to lighting fast range of speed. Overall, the course and setup should test every facet of a player’s game. A true test of golf.
Key Stats: Total Driving, Long Iron Approaches, and Putting on Fast Bermuda Greens
Not only do you need to be accurate off the tee at Bay Hill, but with the length of the course, you also need to have some length to avoid continuous 200+ approach shots. For this, I will turn to, not only SG: Off the Tee, but also Total Driving.
Not only are there five par 4 holes that come in over 450 yards, but the par 3’s are no joke either with three of them over 215 yards and all of them over 199 yards! Long irons will be crucial this week. With so many long approach shots, we will likely see a below-average amount of greens in regulation which also means players will have to be sharp around the green to get up and down consistently without losing strokes to the field.
Finally, one of the biggest challenges of Bay Hill are the Bermuda greens which are lightning-fast. We will want players who are trending with the putter overall but we can also look at past performances on Bay Hill and similar courses with lightning-fast greens.
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my stats model for this week:
- Collin Morikawa
- Sepp Straka
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
- Rory McIlroy
- Nick Taylor
- Russell Henley
- Robert MacIntyre
- Scottie Scheffler
- Taylor Pendrith
Best Bets: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Outside of Kurt Kitayama at +25000 in 2023, the winner typically comes from the top or near the top of the board. Betting Scottie Scheffler at his current number around +350 is tough even with wins here in two of the last three years. If going that route, I would put together a bet card that had Scheffler plus a couple of long shots and mix in some Top 10 and Top 20 bets. I will be going a bit more balanced with a couple of players in the 20’s followed by some Top 10/Top 20 ladder bets. Let’s get into it.
Justin Thomas Outright (+2500)
There is some risk here with Thomas who can spray it a little bit off the tee at times and is also inconsistent with the flat stick. I will take that risk this week as shopping around early can get you a nice +2500 number on a player who checks almost every other box for me this week. Over the last 24 rounds overall, he ranks 1st in SG: Total, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 1st in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Around the Green, and 18th in Good Drive %. That is great form for JT who has previously finished 21st and 12th at Bay Hill.
Not only has he not missed a cut since the US Open last summer, he also comes into the week with Top 10 finishes in two straight and four of his last six events. In those two most recent events at the Genesis and WMPO he gained an incredible 13 strokes on approach but was just below field-average around the green and putting. If he can continue the elite tee-to-green play and just improve the putting a tiny bit, he will be in contention this week. Get on this number before it settles around +1800 to +2000.
Patrick Cantlay Outright (+2800) / Top 10 (+230)
Like Thomas, Cantlay hasn’t hoisted a trophy since 2022 when he won two events(Zurich Classic & BMW Championship) but is a player on the rise and should get back there soon. The form has been extremely consistent as he has tallied nine Top 25 finishes in 10 events since his last missed cut and even better he comes into this week with Top 5 finishes in two of is last three. While he hasn’t been elite in any one area in 2025, he has been solid across the board ranking(in this field) 18th in SG: Tee to Green, 24th in Total Driving, 11th in SG: Putting, 12th in Proximity from 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 3rd in Par 5 Birdie or Better.
He played here in each of the last two years and while he didn’t contend last year(T36), he did record a 4th place finish here in 2023. He checks almost all the boxes and is #2 in my overall model this week. I will be betting him outright with a Top 5 each way and I will also add in a Top 10 bet at +230.
Tony Finau Ladder Bet Outright (+5500) / Top 5 (+850) / Top 10 (+375) / Top 20 (+140)
Another ladder bet this week where I will place the most units on the Top 20 finish and then ladder that up to an outright. After back-to-back missed cuts at the AMEX and Farmers, Finau has bounced back nicely with finishes of 13th and 5th in his last two events which also happened to be signature events. Speaking of the elite field, signature events, Finau is the only player who has played all three events and finished Top 15 in each and one of just two players to have Top 20’s in all three.
Nothing really stands out statistically outside of his elite around the green game and near-elite long iron play(14th in Prox from 175-200 & 23rd in Prox from 200+). Looking at the other custom model I have put together, Finau ranks 13th in my difficult scoring conditions model and 14th in my tough field model.
