Welcome back golf fans. In this article, I will break down the courses, look at the stats to focus on in our models, and then go over a few players who should be on our betting cards this week. Let’s get started with the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!
For the second straight year, this event will be part of the Signature Events series on the PGA Tour. This means an elite field of 80 players that includes eight of the Top 10 and 44 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Those players and their amateur partners will each play a round on Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill GC on Thursday and Friday with just the pros playing the weekend exclusively on Pebble Beach.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the courses, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links & Spyglass Hill GC
Both courses come in around 7,000 yards and while Pebble Beach has the much smaller greens, it has been Spyglass Hill that has played considerably more difficult, especially over the last three years. Pebble Beach has ranked 20th, 35th, and 29th in difficulty over that stretch while Spyglass has ranked 8th, 16, and 11th in difficulty. This week also marks a big adjustment for players in terms of putting as both courses have Poa greens which can be a lot trickier to read.
Key Stats: Accuracy and Putting are the Keys to Success
When looking at key stats this week, I will focus almost exclusively on Pebble Beach where three of the four rounds will be played. With the smallest greens on the PGA Tour, accuracy is the name of the game, elevating Strokes Gained: Approach as my most important stat of the week in my model. Last week was predicated on long iron play and that is almost the complete opposite this week as I will be looking closely at short iron play from 100-150 yards.
The small greens also mean a lot more missed greens in regulation, which puts a ton of emphasis on Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Scrambling. Saving par is almost as important as making birdies at Pebble Beach. With that said, Strokes Gained: Putting also becomes very important, and going deeper, we will want to look at the splits and putting performance on the more difficult Poa greens.
Best Bets: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
At the top of the board, we have Scottie Scheffler at a short +500 which is a tough sell when trying to fill out a betcard. If wanting to bet the World #1, I would just get creative and bet wire-to-wire or possibly combine him in a parlay with another golf league or even sport. For me, I will be traveling down the board into the next tier to kick things off.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800)
First up this week is Patrick Cantlay who almost checks every box in my model starting with his course history. He has not only made the cut in all nine trips to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am but also has five finishes of 11th or better with top 5 finishes in two of his last three. He also enters the week in excellent form coming off a T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and also hasn’t finished outside the Top 25 since the Memorial last June. He doesn’t jump off the page in my stats model this week with slightly above-average iron play but is elite around the green and with the putter, especially on Poa greens.
Justin Thomas (+1600)
I don’t normally target multiple players at the top of the board but the elevated event and small field change up the strategy a little bit. Thomas missed the cut in this event on his first trip back in 2014 and hadn’t played here again up until last season when it was converted to a signature event. The results were much better as he ended up T6 and was 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. If not for a below-average putting week, he would have been contending for the win on Sunday.
The putter is always a question mark for bettors when it comes to Thomas but the good news is that he is trending up in that area gaining 2.9 and 1.3 strokes putting in his first two 2025 events. He also comes in red-hot with podium finishes in three of his last four events. On top of a putter that is heating up, he has been excellent with the iron game ranking 14th in SG: Approach, and is first in this field in Proximity from 100-125 yards. Combine that with an above-average Scrambling game and Thomas could be in for his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship.
Adam Scott (+6600)
When betting on two players near the top of the board, I try and keep the card small and find some value. Adam Scott fits the model for me this week as he almost checks every box. He finished the 2024 season off strong with back-to-back Top 5 finishes in the playoffs at the BMW and Tour Championships and then opened the 2025 season with a T15 at the Sentry. The course history in the full event was not great(T52, T61, MC) but he looked good last year ranking 8th in SG: Tee to Green but a slightly below-average putter resulted in a T20 finish. What stands out the most when looking at the stats is that Scott is Top 10 in both SG: Around the Green and Putting over the last 24 rounds and Top 5 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring.
On top of betting him outright, I will also be adding a Top 10 bet at +400 this week.
2025 Fantrax Fantasy Sports
