Welcome back golf fans. In this article, I will break down the courses, look at some stats to focus on in our models, and then go over a few players who should be on our betting cards this week. Let’s get started with the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open!
The West Coast swing continues as the PGA Tour heads to La Jolla, CA, and the iconic Torrey Pines Golf Course for the Farmers Insurance Open. This is the second of three straight weeks where players will navigate a multi-course rotation. The best news of the week is that we are essentially done with shootouts which is why many consider this the “real” start of the season. With that said, the scoring is much tougher at the Farmers Insurance Open as we have seen an average winning score of -14 over the past five years, and only once has that winning score reached -20 going back to the year 2000. Buckle up!
The Course: Torrey Pines South and North Course
All players in the field will play one round on each course with a cut of Top 65 & ties after Friday’s second round. The final two rounds are then played on Torrey Pines South Course.
When looking at difficulty, there is a big gap between the two courses this week. Both are Par 72 setups but while the North Course comes in at an average length of 7,258 yards, the South Course is a beast at 7,765 yards. That distance gap is the prime reason why the North Course plays as one of the easiest courses on tour while the South Course is consistently ranked inside the Top 10 most difficult courses in terms of average scoring.
Key Stats: Bombs Away
I will focus my stats model on the South Course this week with three of four rounds played there. At nearly 7,800 yards, Driving Distance is right at the top for me this week. Six Par 4 holes come in at 450 yards or longer and three at 480 yards or longer. I am always looking at iron play and Strokes Gained: Approach in my model and this week will also add some weight to Proximity from 200+ yards. Looking at previous seasons, there is a much higher than average amount of approaches coming from this range.
Best Bets: Farmers Insurance Open
Max Greyserman (+2500)
The withdrawal of Collin Morikawa hurt the odds board a bit this weak in an already weaker-than-average field. I was expecting to get Greyserman between +3000 and +4000 but I am still on board at his current price as he fits the model for success here.
With a T7 at the American Express last week, he has not finished Top 10 in five of his last eight events including three runner-up finishes. He may rank below average in driving distance(297 yards) through three events but proved he can get it out there ranking 5th in the field last week at just over 320 yards. He paired that with a red-hot iron game as he led the field gaining 6.9 strokes on approach.
He is playing the best golf of his young career and is on the cusp of earning his first career PGA Tour win. I am betting on it being this week!
Taylor Pendrith (+3500)
Pendrith fits the model even more as he brings some course history to the table. He has not only made the cut here in all three trips but also picked up a career-high T9 last season and was one of just five players to gain strokes in each SG category.
Looking at the form, he has also not missed a cut since the PGA Championship last May, a streak of 12 straight events. Looking at my last 12 rounds model, Pendrith ranks 2nd in SG: Off the Tee, 8th in Driving Distance, 19th in SG: Approach, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, and 5th in Birdie or Better.
With that ball striking, if he can put together a solid four days of putting, I see him competing for another victory this week.
Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000)
I normally don’t get too deep in the odds here at the Farmers but can’t pass up Thorbjornsen. He is still relatively unknown in fantasy and betting circles outside the hard cores so a bit of a “let’s get to know him” to start.
He won the 2018 US Amateur and had seven total titles during his amateur career. Last year, he was a part of the PGA Tour University and ended atop the rankings which earned him a Tour card for the remainder of the 2024 season and the entirety of the 2025 season. As a pro in 2024, he played 11 events making the cut in six of them with his biggest highlight a T2 at the John Deere Classic.
He opened the American Express with a 65/68 but eventually missed the cut after a third-round 75 on Saturday. He has the stat profile to bounce back this week as he ranks, in this field, 7th in Driving Distance, 35th in SG: Approach, 26th in Proximity from 200+ Yards, 9th in SG: Putting, and 8th in Birdies Gained.
