Welcome back golf fans. In this article, I will break down the courses, look at the stats to focus on in our models, and then go over a few players who should be on our betting cards this week. Let’s get started with the 2025 Mexico Open!
With the West Coast swing wrapping up at Torrey Pines last week, the PGA Tour shifts to Mexico for a week before kicking off the Florida swing. Two signature events with the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Genesis Invitational plus a strong field at the WM Phoenix Open have made this a bit of a bye-week for the top players on tour. The field is fairly weak at the Mexico Open with no players ranked inside the Top 25 and just five players ranked inside the Top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: Vidanta Vallarta
This will be the fourth year in a row for this event in Mexico to be played at Vidanta Vallarta. The course is a beast par 71 at 7,436 yards and one of the Top 10 longest courses on tour. More good news for the bombers on tour as the fairways are larger than average which takes away the importance of accuracy to a degree. The paspalum greens are also larger than average raising the importance of proximity when looking at approach stats.
When looking at the hole makeup, there are five par 3’s on the course ranging from 170 yards to 226 with two of those holes over 200 yards. The par 4’s come in on the longer side with six coming in over 450 yards and three of those at 498 yards or longer. The par 5’s are also monsters with three of them at 585 yards or longer and two of them over 600 yards.
Another key factor this week is that Vidanta Vallarta is a coastal resort course so the wind can most definitely be a top defense. Current forecasts are showing warm weather with moderate winds around 10-12 mph for the week. That can change quickly so make sure to check the forecast before finalizing your lineups.
Key Stats: Driving Distance, Long Iron Play, and Putting
It has been a common theme over recent weeks with multiple stops at Torrey Pines but once again, Driving Distance is near the top of my model. Unlike Torrey Pines, Vidanta Vallarta has much more generous fairways for landing zones making it a true bombers paradise.
With wider fairways and higher driving accuracy, there will be an elevated importance when it comes to Strokes Gained: Approach this week. While it’s a smaller sample size than most courses we get to break down, it is clear that long iron Proximity from 200+ yards is very important here with almost double the approach shots coming from this range versus tour averages.
Whenever we see generous fairways and greens in terms of driving accuracy and greens in regulation, the biggest difference in leaderboard position can become the putter. I will not be looking at recent trends in Strokes Gained: Putting but also the putting trends on Paspalum greens.
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Akshay Bhatia
- Harry Hall
- Kurt Kitayama
- Alex Smalley
- Stephan Jaeger
- Jake Knapp
- Sam Stevens
- Beau Hossler
- Rasmus Højgaard
- Kevin Roy
Best Bets: Mexico Open
Kurt Kitayama Outright (+2200)
The decision at the top of the board is interesting in this weak field event but it’s Kitayama who checks the most boxes for me when running my models. He finished runner-up in the first trip to Vidanta Vallarta back in 2022 and despite some bad form going in, gained 7.7 strokes tee to green and also gained five strokes on the greens! That makes me feel a bit better about his current form with finishes 49th, MC, 58th, and 37th in 2025 after closing out 2024 with back-to-back Top 10s.
Looking at various stats models, Kitayama sits at the top of almost all of them. In my “last 24 rounds long courses model”, he ranks 11th in Driving Distance, 1st in SG: Approach, 6th in Proximity from 200+ yards, and 1st in Par 5 scoring. He also ranks #1 for me when looking at SG: Tee to Green on weak field events over the last 50 rounds.
All of that above puts him slightly ahead of guys like Patrick Rodgers, Harry Hall, and Stephan Jaeger for me this week. I will be betting on him outright and also looking at one one-on-one tournament matchups when they are released.
Alex Smalley Outright (+4500) / Top 10 (+450)
Another player who finds himself at the top of almost all of my models is Alex Smalley. The course history is not pretty with back-to-back missed cuts but did flash some upside in 2022 with a 6th-place finish. The current form coming into this week is what stands out here as he is 7th in terms of average finish over the last 10 events and has three Top 25 finishes in his last four.
Statistically, he is only slightly above average in distance off the tee but has been red-hot with the long irons recently, ranking 5th in proximity from 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds. He is also Top 5 in my long course and weak field models. I like both the outright and Top 10 markets with Smalley this week.
Kevin Roy Outright (+8000) / Top 10 (+600) / Top 20(+260)
This is one pick I would shop around for as you can find him as low as +5500 and as high as +8000 at the moment. He is coming off a round 2 withdrawal at the Farmers for undisclosed reasons(some say flu, some say high winds..) but had decent form before that with a 45th at the Sony Open and 18th at the American Express. It’s a smaller sample size but he is 10th in my custom weak field model and statistically, he leads the tour in Total Driving to this point with a well above-average driving distance. He also ranks Top 20 in both long iron proximity and both par 4 and 5 scoring. I am probably more interested in the Top 20 and Top 10 markets but will sprinkle some on a longshot bet at these prices.
