Attacking the Green!: 2026 3M Open Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

Welcome back, golf fans. A Ryan Fox Open Championship win last week puts an end to major season, with the focus now centered on the upcoming FedEx Cup Playoffs. There are three events remaining before the start of the playoffs, and it starts this week with a trip to TPC Twin Cities for the 2026 3M Open. With the event coming just a week after the Open Championship, the field is fairly watered down once again this week, with World #1 Scottie Scheffler the only player ranked inside the Top 20 in the DataGolf World rankings. There are four former champions of this event in the field, including Kurt Kitayama (2025), Lee Hodges (2023), Tony Finau (2022), and Cameron Champ (2021).

In this article, we will preview the course, the stats and trends that matter, and look at some players who will be on our betcard this week. Let’s get started.

The Course: TPC Twin Cities

The course is a Par 71 setup listed at 7,431 yards on the scorecard. It has played as a low-scoring birdie fest with the winning score averaging -19.4 over the first seven years for this event. In 2025, two course records were set with six golfers reaching -20 or better and 56 golfers hitting the double-digit below par mark.

Looking at the hole setups, the par 3s do play slightly under par and rank on the easier side of things when looking at tour averages despite three of the four coming in over 200 yards. The par 4s are also very scoreable, with six of the 11 coming in under 450 yards (two under 400 yards). When looking at iron play and proximity buckets, the mid-range will be the focus but players who are also sharp with their long irons can gain an advantage on the longer par 3’s and two par 4’s that top 500 yards.

The fairways are wider than average, which, in turn, creates an above-average driving accuracy mark over the seven years. That combined with larger than average greens has created a very high GIR rate north of 70%. This takes out the importance of scrambling this week, as you will not be in any kind of contention if you are missing greens. Instead, the focus will be on ball striking and putting.

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 3M Open Champion

Top Stats/Trends:

• Strokes Gained: Ball Striking – Ball striking is at the top of my list week. Off the tee, I lean slightly more to accuracy over distance but a combination of both is an elite combination. On approach, the GIR rate is very high so I will turn to proximity as my key iron stat this week looking mostly at the mid-range proximity buckets.
• Strokes Gained Putting – While we have seen Kurt Kitayama (2025) and Tony Finau (2022) win this event ranking outside the top 55 in putting for the week, the flat stick has been one of the more correlated stats for players inside the top 10 and 20.
• Birdie or Better % – I talked about the lower scoring above so we want to key in on players who are aggressive and can make birdies in bunches. Previous success on similar scoring events is also useful.
• Course History – As a fairly new event (2019-present) combined with its position after a major championship and two weeks overseas, I will factor course history into my model this week

Tom Kim (+3200 Outright / +550 Top 5 / +270 Top 10)

If we are looking for ball striking, Tom Kim is definitely jumping off the page as he is 2nd to only Scheffler (in this field) in SG: Ball Striking over the last 20 rounds. Leading the way in that department has been the irons, as he is 1st in this field, gaining 1.3 strokes per round. That elite ball striking led to a win at the Scottish Open, a 3rd at the U.S. Open, and T15 at the RBC Canadian Open. Kim is also one of just seven players in this field to average positive strokes gained in every category over that same 20-round sample size. The course history is also pretty good as he has a 28th and 26th place finish in two trips to TPC Twin Cities. In a weak field I love the number on one of the top trending players. I will also have exposure to the top 5 and top 10 markets.

Johnny Keefer (+6500 Outright / +470 Top 10 / +215 Top 20)

It was a slow start to his rookie season, missing six of his first eight starts, but he showed his upside with a T3 at the Houston Open. The form has steadily improved over the season as he has now made the cut in eight of his last nine, including two top 10 finishes at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and Scottish Open. Statistically, he is 1st in SG: Ball Striking in this field over the last 20 rounds, and while the putting is what really holds him back, he gained strokes on the green in both the Open and Scottish Open the last two weeks. I will sprinkle some on the outright, but the most exposure will come in the top 10 and top 20 markets.

Mac Meissner (+5800 Outright / +415 Top 10 / +195 Top 20)

Meissner has been enjoying his best season on tour with as many top 10s (4) as he had over the previous two seasons combined. The form has been at its best lately, as well, with two of those top 10s coming over his last six events. After three straight weeks struggling with ball striking, he seems to have found something in two straight which is more like his overall numbers. His biggest strength has been his putting and could lead to a low number here at TPC Twin Cities. He has made the cut here in each of his trips to TPC Twin Cities, including a 14th place finish last year. Like Keefer, I like the Top 10 and Top 20 markets most but will also sprinkle some on the outright longshot.

Emiliano Grillo (+630 Top 10 / +285 Top 20)

Going even deeper, we find Grillo, who checks a ton of boxes and ranks top 20 in my overall model this week. The course history stands out right away as he has tallied a top 25 in five of six trips to TPC Twin Cities, including two top 3 finishes in 2022 and 2020. Then comes the form as he has made five straight cuts and finished 26th or better in three straight events on the back of a red-hot putter (13.9 strokes gained putting). On top of that, he has also gained strokes ball striking in six of his last seven events. I love the value with the top 10 and top 20 this week.