After two straight signature events and the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour is taking its foot off the gas this week with a trip to TPC Craig Ranch for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. It marks the sixth straight season the event has been hosted at TPC Craig Ranch, with the wining score reaching at least -23 in the previous five years. That includes the dominating eight-stroke win by Scottie Scheffler last year, where he reached -31!
In this article, we will go over the course, look at some key stats in the model, and highlight some top bets for the tournament. Let’s get started.
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The Course: TPC Craig Ranch
The course played as a Par 72 in the first two CJ Cup Byron Nelson events in 2021 and 2022 before go to a Par 71 setup over the last three years. The setup hasn’t mattered a whole lot, however, as TPC Craig Ranch has played as one of the easiest courses on tour, playing over 2.5 shots under par on average.
The wide fairways produce above-average driving accuracy rates, and with little resistance in terms of rough, water, forced layups, and angles, the course also favours longer hitters. With a minimized penalty on missing fairways and larger than average greens, we also see an average GIR rate well above average (>70%).
The course did see a renovation since last year and will have more bunkers for defense but I don’t think it will change the difficulty a whole lot. I am looking for another winning score in the -25 range this week.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Champion
Top Stats:
- Driving Distance – With little to no resistance off the tee, combined with non-penal rough, the longer drivers have a nice advantage
- Strokes Gained: Approach/Long Iron Proximity – A strong iron game is always important, but it is amplified a bit this week as the field will be hitting 70%, and falling below that number will set you back significantly. Three of the par 3’s are over 200 yards, and there are six par 4’s over 450 yards, so long iron proximity is something to focus on when digging deeper into iron play
- Birdie or Better % – With winning scores in the -25 range, birdies are at a premium!
Davis Thompson (+4800 Outright / +300 Top 10)
Despite Scheffler running away with this event a year ago, I just can’t stomach betting him at +155. Instead, I will be mostly betting the middle of the board with a few outrights, but mostly looking to the secondary markets. Thompson has struggled here at TPC Craig Ranch (MC, T70) in his two trips, but pops in the model this week based on his current form. He is coming off three straight top 15 finishes, has gained 8.8 strokes on approach in his last two, and is finally seeing the birdies drop. I will take a shot with Thompson in the outright and top 10 markets this week.
Ryo Hisatsune (+4800 Outright / +305 Top 10)
Outside of the top players on the PGA Tour, Hisatsune has easily been one of the more consistent players in 2026. Since missing the cut at the Sony Open back in January, he has reeled off 13 straight made cuts, including a runner-up, four top 10’s, and five top 25 finishes. The results haven’t been there recently, but could be trending back up as he looked good statistically at the PGA Championship, gaining over 2.6 strokes on approach and over five strokes in ball striking. The thing about his stats profile that stands out the most, however, is that he is top 5 in this field in birdie or better %. My favorite bet for Hisatsune this week is the top 10, but I will also sprinkle some on the outright, as well.
Eric Cole (+445 Top 10 / +200 Top 20)
While he has only played here twice, Cole has the second-best average finish when looking at course history, finishing 23rd in 2023 and an impressive 5th-place finish last year. Overall, it has been a ho-hum season, but he has been trending up in a big way recently with back-to-back top 10 finishes at the Myrtle Beach Classic and Zurich Classic, and also picked up a T14 at the Valero Texas Open. The big turnaround has been the iron game as he has gained a whopping 8.3 strokes on approach at Valero and Myrtle Beach combined (no ShotLink at Zurich). He also has an excellent short game and ranks 7th in this field in Birdie or Better %. I am not sure he is fit to hoist the trophy, but I love the top 10 and top 20 markets this week.
Max McGreevy (+500 Top 10 / +225 Top 20)
The form has been awful as he has missed three straight and four of his last five cuts, but this is a week he can get back on track. After struggling in his first two trips to TPC Craig Ranch, he has finished 30th and 15th over the last two years. It makes sense as he is a strong player when it comes to easy scoring conditions, ranking 3rd in this field over the last 20 rounds in similar conditions. He has also gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven events and ranks 14th in this field in SG: Approach this season.
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