Welcome back, golf fans. It’s playoff time as the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup rankings head to TPC Southwind for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be the fifth year that TPC Southwind has been a part of the playoffs, with each of the last three years playing as a no-cut event. Before that, it played host to the WGC Invitational from 2019 – 2021.
In this article, we will preview the course, look at the top stats and trends in the model, and go over some of our top bets for the week.
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The Course: TPC Southwind
The course is a Par 70 setup that is average in length (7,288 yards) but can be very challenging tee to green. Off the tee, the fairways are below average in width, which produces a mid-50 % driving accuracy average of the years. The Bermuda grass rough usually runs about three to four inches and can be penalizing, which puts an emphasis on accuracy and/or rough proximity with the irons. As expected, the GIR rate is also well below average, which will bring scrambling into play, and when breaking down putting, current form and Bermuda history are important to look at this week.
The par 3s are pretty average in length, ranging from 168 to 205 yards. The par 4s are where the most difficulty will be had, with seven of the 12 of them over 450 yards, with two over 500 yards. The par 5s are both reachable in two shots, which produce a lot of birdies and last year produced 17 of the 18 eagles. While par 4 scoring is much higher in my model this week, par 5 birdie or better % is something we can look at, as well.
Overall, a complete tee-to-green game is going to be needed to contend this week. I will look at both overall form and stats but also some smaller sample size trends which can point to a player being ready to put it all together. Let’s dive in.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Top Bets
Tommy Fleetwood (+2000 Outright / +330 Top 5)
I am not starting my card at the top this week and will head to the second tier where Fleetwood checks every box. It starts with his course history as he has finished 3rd in two of the last three years and cemented himself as playoff Tommy after winning the Tour Championship in 2025. Over the last two seasons, he not only ranks 2nd in SG: Total in playoff events, but he is also 2nd in SG: Total in no-cut events over the same time frame. Capping it off, he comes in hot, finishing 14th or better in six straight events going back to the Memorial and is 4th in SG: Tee to Green over that stretch.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000 Outright / +475 Top 5 / +215 Top 10)
I will continue to ride the wave with Matsuyama, who has cashed top 10 tickets in three straight and top 5 tickets in two of those! Over the last 20 rounds, he ranks 5th in SG: Tee to Green, highlighted by an elite short game (2nd) and some above-average ball striking (22nd). He also jumps off the page when looking at course history as he won this event in 2024, has finished 17th or better in his three playoff appearances here, and also has a runner-up in 2021 when TPC Southwind played as a WGC event. My favourite bets are once again the top 5 and top 10, and I will also sprinkle some on the outright.
Tom Kim (+5200 Outright / +750 Top 5 / +320 Top 10)
Hard not to like Tom Kim at these numbers considering he has been one of the hottest players on tour over the last couple of months. He has made the cut in 10 of his last 11, including four top 10’s, six top 20’s, and a win at the Scottish Open. Looking at the short-term stats profile, Kim ranks 2nd in SG: Tee to Green behind only Scottie Scheffler, leads all golfers in SG: Approach, and has a top 20 short game.
Akshay Bhatia (+7400 Outright / +440 Top 10 / +175 Top 20)
Bhatia is a long shot outright this week coming off two missed cuts at the Rocket Classic and Open Championship, but the secondary market numbers are very appealing. He has played here at TPC Southwind twice and finished 6th and 12th in those events, so course history is definitely on his side. Before the missed cuts, he posted back-to-back top 20 finishes at the Travelers Championship (5th) and U.S. Open (17th), so the form has been there. He has an elite short game and is also 13th in this field in Par 4 scoring in 2026.
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