Attacking the Green!: 2026 Sony Open Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

The 2026 PGA Tour season is finally here. The schedule looks a little different to start the year, as the season-opening Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua has been cancelled due to ongoing drought conditions and other challenges at the resort. Kapalua’s Plantation Course had been a fixture on the PGA Tour calendar since 1999 and served as the Tournament of Champions venue since 2011, making this a notable shift to begin the season.

With that change, the Sony Open now becomes the first official event of the 2026 season, kicking off our weekly PGA Tour journey. In this article series, we’ll break down three key statistical categories that are most critical for success at each course and highlight players whose skill sets best fit that model.

The Course: Waialae Country Club

The Sony Open has called Waialae Country Club home since the tournament’s inception in 1971. Originally played as a par 72, the course shifted to a par 70 layout in 1999 and has remained that way ever since. At 7,044 yards, Waialae consistently ranks among the shorter tracks on Tour, where scoring is less about overpowering holes and more about plotting your way through them.

Tree-lined fairways and frequent doglegs create tighter landing zones, placing a premium on smart positioning over raw distance. This naturally drags driving accuracy to below-average levels on many holes, forcing players to prioritize angles to set up clean looks into the greens. Those greens, however, are more accessible than most — Waialae annually grades as a top-15 course in greens in regulation, largely driven by an elevated rate of mid-iron approach shots and a well below average amount of long iron shots.

With the course context in place, I’m keying in on a few key stats and trends that matter most this week. Next, we’ll walk through the players on my betting card who fit the model to make a run at Waialae.

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Sony Open Champion

Course History

Course history is something I don’t normally rank that high in my model, but there are always exceptions. The Sony Open and Waialae Country Club is one of the,m as it is Top 5 in terms of course history being predictive of future success(via DataGolf).

Nick Taylor (+3300 Outright)

Things didn’t always come so easily for Taylor here at Waialae, as he started off his career with a T68, 74th, MC, MC, T32 in his first five trips to the island. He figured it all out in 2021 when he finished T11 and then followed that up with back-to-back T7 finishes in 2023 and 2024 before winning last year. My overall model factors in current form, but I am not worried about Taylor’s finishes leading up to this event (33rd, 44th, MC). Almost every season, he returns to Hawaii with average or below-average form and continues to perform well here. I love the number at +3300.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800 Outright)

While Hideki is still inside the Top 5 of outright odds across the market, it still feels a bit like a value considering his course history here at Waialae. He won here in 2022, has finished Top 20 in four of his last six trips, and has made the cut here in nine straight. While it’s an exhibition event, he is still coming off a win at the Hero World Challenge and has Top 20 finishes in six of his last seven events overall(26th the other finish). Statistically, he fits the model ranking Top 10 in SG: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green, and is Top 3 in all Proximity ranges from 150-200+ yards. He is my favorite to win this week.

Driving Accuracy/Fairways Gained

Waialae is a shorter, positional golf course, and that means accuracy off the tee is much more important than distance this week. In 2025, 17 of the Top 18 in Fairways Gained made the cut. In 2024, each of the Top 22 players in FW Gained made the cut, including the winner and four others inside the Top 10. In 2023, 20 of the Top 23 in FW Gained made the cut, including the winner and runner-up.

Corey Conners (+3500 Outright / +300 Top 10)

Conners has always been known as one of the top ball strikers on Tour, and the importance of that becomes elevated here at Waialae. In this field, he ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy, 21st in SG: Approach, and 11th in SG: Ball Striking when looking at last season as a whole. He has been a dud here the last two years(MC, 57th) but had tallied four straight Top 12 finishes before that.

Max McGreevy (+600 Top 10)

I am somewhat ignoring the course history for McGreevy as he returns to Waialae for the fourth time and has yet to make a cut. I don’t think he is ready to win yet, but I feel his game has progressed enough that he could grab a Top 10 finish. He finished the 2025 season ranked 11th in Driving Accuracy and 16th in Good Drive %. He also comes into this year’s Sony Open with his best form yet, having finished T3 at the Bermuda Championship and T11 at the Bank of Utah Championship.

Strokes Gained: Putting

Putting, especially on Bermuda greens, is one of my favorite stat narratives to track here at the Sony Open. In 2025, 29 players gained two or more strokes putting, with 26 of them making the cut, including the winner, runner-up, and also saw nine of the Top 12 in SG: Putting finished inside the Top 10. It was much of the same in 2024, with 39 players gaining two or more strokes putting, and 36 making the cut. This list also included the winner and each player inside the Top 5.

Harry Hall (+2800 Outright)

Hall checks almost all the boxes for me this week, starting with his elite short game. In 2025, he finished 10th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. He got his first career win out of the way in 2024, built on his consistency in 2025 with five Top 5’s and 15 Top 25’s, which were a direct result of that elite short game. He has made the cut at the Sony Open in all three appearances and had a career-best 10th last year. If he can find his way to above-average greens in regulation this week, he can put that elite putter to work and contend for a win.

Nico Echavarria (+5000 Outright / +390 Top 10)

Echavarria took a huge step forward on the greens in 2025, finishing 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting after finishing 79th and 137th in his first two seasons on the PGA Tour. This didn’t lead to a win after hoisting a trophy in each of his first two seasons, but it is a positive trend going into 2026. Also positive is the finish to 2025 in the fall season, when he made four straight cuts with two Top 10’s and a Top 15 finish. Shop around, as his current number is all over the place. I bet him on DK Sportsbook at +5000 and also like the Top 10 number this week.