Divisional Round Rankings: NFL Playoff Fantasy Football

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is a pivotal moment especially if you’re playing fantasy football. We now have each conference’s top seeds and their players entering into the mix. There is so much talent available at each position. These Divisional Round rankings will help you sort through it all to crush this weekend and strategically set you up all the way to the Super Bowl.

NFL Divisional Round Rankings by Position

Rankings last updated January 16

QUARTERBACK

Choosing a quarterback from the Divisional Round rankings is easier said than done. You could make the case for any of the eight quarterbacks available. However, knowing which quarterback and, more importantly, when to play them is crucial. Without knowing who your Wild Card quarterback was, I’m going to lay out a few hypothetical scenarios that should set you up for success over the next few weeks.

If you’ve already played Jayden Daniels, and don’t expect him to make the Super Bowl, then it’s best to pivot to Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson for the Divisional Round. Since Allen and Jackson are playing each other, you are going to want to get a piece of this matchup. If you choose the “losing quarterback” of the two, then you have the ability to select the “winning quarterback” next week for the AFC Championship game. That leaves you with the ability to select the “NFC quarterback” for the Super Bowl, again, assuming Jayden Daniels, who you played last week, does not make it. If you choose the “winning quarterback” between Allen and Jackson, you can stay on this course and comfortably fall back on Patrick Mahomes or C.J. Stroud next week.

If you’ve already played Allen or Jackson, I suggest selecting Jayden Daniels from the Divisional Round rankings. In this scenario, if you already played Allen and he loses to the Ravens this week, you still have the opportunity to play Lamar Jackson or Mahomes/Stroud next week. If you already played Jackson and he loses to the Bills this week, you still have the opportunity to play Allen or Mahomes/Stroud next week. If the quarterback between Allen or Jackson that you’ve already played wins again this week, you miss out on the other, but again, can still fall back on Mahomes or Stroud for the AFC Championship game.

It’s obvious at this point that my intentions are to target whoever the NFC quarterback is for the Super Bowl. All three of Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford have been there before. They all have a strong combination of weapons and coaching, and Hurts also possesses a high upside as a mobile quarterback. Assuming one of these three quarterbacks return to the Super Bowl, I like their potential matchups against any of the AFC defenses remaining as opposed to an AFC quarterback facing one of these NFC defenses with the defenses they all respectively face along the way taken into consideration.

Above all else, you need to have confidence in your convictions as to how you see the NFL playoffs panning out. Based on this Divisonal Round rankings analysis, I am operating as if Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders are not going to make the Super Bowl. If you feel differently, then obviously your decision-making will reflect that.

RUNNING BACK

Kyren Williams faces a tough run defense on Sunday in Philadelphia. However, the Eagles will be without linebacker Nakobe Dean. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Wild Card round last weekend. Dean’s absence and a lack of competition for touches for Williams in the Rams’ backfield keeps him solidified inside the top-four. It’s hard to rank him as a top-three back in the Divisional Round rankings especially with Jahmyr Gibbs available to select.

In addition to Gibbs, we now know David Montgomery has practiced in full all week for the Lions. This is after suffering what was believed to be a season-ending knee injury in Week 15. If Montgomery is practicing in full, I expect him to be a full go. Why? Well, after missing Week 3 of the 2023 season, with what was believed to be a significant quad injury, he returned on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. Montgomery rushed 32 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers in that game. Guess who benched him and will never forget that?

I know that is a wildly specific and bitter moment to draw from. The point being, however, is that you don’t have to fade Montgomery based on reports from weeks ago that he was done for the season. We learned this week that he is practicing in full. So, again, I expect him to be a full go. If you don’t want to start Jahmyr Gibbs just yet, this is a good opportunity to plug in Montgomery when many others are apprehensive to. The Washington Commanders defense allowed the fourth-most rush yards to running backs during the regular season. Even last week, Bucky Irving totaled a strong 77 yards on 17 carries in the Wild Card round.

On the other side of this matchup, I prefer Austin Ekeler to Brian Robinson Jr. Since his return from a Week 12 concussion, Ekeler has played more snaps (69) than Robinson (60) over their last two games. In a tight Wild Card win against the Buccaneers, Ekeler played just three less snaps and logged one less touch. Both were involved in the passing game last week, but that’s something I expect Ekeler to do more of against a stout Detroit run defense, especially if the Lions are humming on offense and build a lead.

Ty Johnson is a sneaky start from the Divisional Round rankings that should arguably be ranked higher. It looks as though Ray Davis (concussion) will miss Sunday night’s matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. Their defense allowed a league-low 1,085 rush yards in 17 regular season games to running backs this season. However, they did allow the 10th-most receptions (80) to the position. Though limitedly, Johnson has mixed in as a receiver as of late. He caught all five of his targets for 114 yards in a 48-42 win over the Detroit Lions a few weeks ago. Johnson notably caught a 24 yard touchdown from Allen just last week. He logged a season-high nine carries for 44 yards against the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card round, as well.

WIDE RECEIVER

Both Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown should play but are known to be dealing with knee injuries. That shouldn’t completely deter plugging them into Divisional Round lineups, but the risk is there more than others. Between the two, Brown has the better matchup against the Rams’ secondary, but I expect a higher passing volume from Los Angeles. The Rams averaged approximately six more pass attempts per game than the Eagles this season. Philadelphia also allowed the ninth-lowest rush yards per game (104.3) so L.A. may look to air it out. Stafford attempted 36 passes against the Eagles in a Week 12 losing effort.

Speaking of rush yards allowed, the Ravens allowed a league-low 77.2 yards per game on the ground. That’s not to say Josh Allen and James Cook can’t have success, but I’m raising Khalil Shakir higher than players like DeVonta Smith and Jameson Williams for this reason. Not only has Shakir led all Bills in targets (100) this season, with Josh Allen spreading the ball around, but he’s had at least six targets in five games played since their Week 12 bye. Shakir, at worst, is a high-floor option that gets a boost in Points Per Reception NFL Playoff leagues.

It’s hard to trust anyone outside of the top-10 of the Divisional Round wide receiver rankings, but we need to consider a few of them as to not dry up the well when it comes time to set lineups for the Conference Championships and Super Bowl. That being said, John Metchie is a sneaky flex play. In three games since Tank Dell’s season-ending knee injury, Metchie has led all Texans in targets (20) with two games of exactly eight targets, including last week. He logged just four targets in Week 18, however that game did not impact the Texans’ playoff chances or seeding. Davis Mills played most of the game at quarterback.

Cooper Kupp has caught five of 10 total targets over his last four games played. Kupp has not reached 30 receiving yards in either game nor scored a touchdown. We cannot invest too heavily in this concept, but it’s worth noting he caught eight or 11 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles back in Week 12. Assuming standout rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is tied up with Puka Nacua on Sunday, Kupp may be required to get more involved. He’s a high-risk play, but could yield double-digit fantasy points with an expected high volume passing offense.

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce leads the tight end group for the Divisional Round rankings as the player with by far the most experience and success this time of year. Kelce led the Chiefs with 133 targets this season and didn’t even play in Week 18. No other player on the Chiefs logged 100 targets. As far as the matchup goes, the Houston Texans don’t stand out as one to exploit for tight ends but aren’t potent enough to fade Kelce after two weeks of rest.

If the intention is to keep presumably stronger players available for the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl, then I really like Dallas Goedert or Dalton Schultz from the Divisional Round rankings. Both tight ends face defenses that rank inside the top seven in fantasy points per game allowed to the position this season. More specifically, both the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs defenses are tied for second in total receptions allowed (106) to tight ends during the regular season. They both also rank top-four in receiving yards allowed with the Chiefs leading the league (1,191). Especially if you believe the Texans will fall on the road to the back-to-back Super Bowl champions, then Schultz could pay off big time on a Texans offense that lacks notable pass catchers.

KICKER

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS