Fantasy Football 2025: Upside Metrics: Running Back

It’s all about the yardage. Well, that and the touchdowns. We want our running backs to have the ball in their hands running down the field. Trying to predict who will finish the season atop the running back leaderboards is never an easy task. Health and opportunity are unfortunately sometimes the biggest variables, but it ultimately comes back to talent. The more talented the running back is, the better the production will be as they’ll ultimately find their way to utilization and production. Let’s take a look at the upside metrics for three running backs who could provide value in 2025.

Upside Metrics: Running Backs

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars, 80.5% Rushing Yards After Contact

After a quiet rookie season, Tank Bigsby burst onto the scene in 2024. Part of that was due to the struggles of Travis Etienne, but Bigsby did a great job of taking advantage of the situation. It likely will be a crowded backfield once again in 2025, but there also projects to be enough room and value for both. This is a situation where a rising tide will lift all boats, thanks to new coach Liam Cohen.

It’s important to qualify that Bigsby is more of a standard option than a PPR one as he’s generally not a factor in the passing game. Last year, he caught just seven passes for 54 yards. However, on the ground, Bigsby made an impact with 766 yards and seven touchdowns on 168 carries. It’s how Bigsby arrived at that production that provides upside for a 1,000-yard season.

Bigsby is in the upper part of the league for multiple upside metrics. A staggering 80.5% of his yards came after contact, to go along with a broken tackle rate of 51%. That is a recipe for continued success.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers, 76.1% Rushing Yards After Contact

With Najee Harris having moved onto the Los Angeles Chargers, it appeared that the Pittsburgh Steelers’ backfield would fully belong to Jaylen Warren. However, after they drafted Kaleb Johnson, that might not entirely be the case. Initially, Johnson could get eased into action, but it’s clear Pittsburgh has big plans for the rookie.

Regardless of what the coaching staff has said, though, previously there was room for both Harris and Warren in Pittsburgh’s backfield. That means the same can be said for Warren and Johnson.

The fact that Warren excelled last year at gaining yards after contact bodes well for his outlook in 2025. He also caught 38 passes for 310 yards ,which came with an 80.9% catch rate. Warren also ranked highly with a 21.7% broken tackle rate. It’s likely that Johnson is eased in, which means Warren could get off to a strong start despite being drafted a round and a half after the rookie.

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 66.1% Rushing Yards After Contact

We aren’t breaking any news here by saying that Bucky Irving is good. With an ADP of 23, you can say very good in fact. It was a strong rookie season for Irving as he gained 1,122 yards on the ground, with eight touchdowns, and 207 carries. Irving also gained another 392 yards on 47 receptions while exceeding just about all expectations.

But as you are forced to spend a second-round pick to secure Irving this season, we can use upside metrics to defend that price. From a utilization standpoint, it’s clear that Irving has surpassed Rachaad White in Tampa Bay’s backfield. His ability to rack up the yardage post-contact only hammers that point home.

It shouldn’t be surprising, as Irving is both athletic and strong while coming with a good skill set. Irving averaged 3.6 yards after contact, which proves his ability to make things happen with the ball. A 21.3% broken tackle rate helps to explain all of the yardage that comes post-contact. From a receiving perspective, it’s hard to argue with a 90.4% catch rate. In this situation, upside metrics help us find comfort in drafting Irving.

For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!