ADP Battles: This QB or That QB

We are roughly one month away from NFL kickoff, which means draft season is officially in full swing! Shortly after dropping my three late-round quarterback targets article, I dove straight into the research trenches to polish up my rankings. Specifically, I wanted to isolate those tricky middle-and-late-round quarterback draft decisions. When two quarterbacks are going right next to each other, which one should you actually click on?

Draft-Day QB Decisions

Welcome to ADP Battles: This QB or That QB.

In this piece, we are breaking down 10 total signal-callers across four distinct fantasy football quarterback ADP battles. Consequently, we will break down who you should favor based on raw talent, strength of schedule, and defensive outlook. After all, nothing raises a QB’s floor quite like a defense that forces them to keep “matriculating the ball down the field” (shoutout Hank Stram).

All Average Draft Position (ADP) data in this article is sourced directly from FantasyPros.

Let’s settle the score on these draft-day dilemmas.

Battle 1: Jayden Daniels (QB5) vs. Jalen Hurts (QB6)

Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders)

• 2025 Stats: 1,262 passing yards, 8 PASS TDs, 3 INTs | 278 rushing yards, 2 RUSH TDs (7 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 16.1 FPPG

Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)

• 2025 Stats: 3,150 passing yards, 21 PASS TDs, 8 INTs | 485 rushing yards, 11 RUSH TDs (16 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 21.4 FPPG

Jayden Daniels Case: Daniels is coming off an extremely rough year. Specifically, he battled a barrage of injuries, most notably a dislocated left elbow alongside knee, wrist, and hamstring issues. Consequently, these injuries limited him to just seven games. Fully healthy, however, he has all the makings of winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year. He now works under new offensive coordinator David Blough, whose system should be fantasy-friendly while leaning into Daniels’ legs. Additionally, with Terry McLaurin, newly signed Stefon Diggs, and newcomer Chigoziem Okonkwo at his disposal, he has solid weapons for a bounce-back season. However, is that top-five price tag simply too rich for a quarterback with durability questions?

Jalen Hurts Case: Hurts is one of only two quarterbacks over the last three seasons to be drafted in the top 10 at his position and actually finish in the top 10 every single year. Losing A.J. Brown hurts on paper. However, Hurts has repeatedly proven he can produce with his legs. Furthermore, he still has a former Heisman Trophy winner in DeVonta Smith waiting to be unleashed as the team’s WR1. He also gains newly signed Dontayvion Wicks, who comes over from Green Bay after making serious noise in training camp. Add in old reliable Dallas Goedert alongside Saquon Barkley, and this offense remains loaded.

Verdict: Jalen Hurts. Hurts is an absolute steal at his current fantasy football quarterback ADP. While I love Daniels’ ceiling, I would much rather spend my draft capital on Hurts. In short, he is considerably safer and possesses just as much slate-winning upside.

Battle 2: Justin Herbert (QB10) vs. Trevor Lawrence (QB11)

Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

• 2025 Stats: 4,120 passing yards, 28 PASS TDs, 10 INTs | 215 rushing yards, 2 RUSH TDs (17 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 18.8 FPPG

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)

• 2025 Stats: 4,007 passing yards, 29 PASS TDs, 12 INTs | 340 rushing yards, 6 RUSH TDs (17 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 19.5 FPPG

Justin Herbert Case: Herbert has been in the headlines recently for off-field noise (I’m looking at you, Madison Beer!). However, that media circus does not negate the monster season he put up last year. He is entering year two under Jim Harbaugh. Meanwhile, Quentin Johnston continues his breakout trajectory, rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden enters the mix, and sophomore running back Omarion Hampton holds down the backfield. Therefore, Herbert has plenty of firepower to remain a weekly set-it-and-forget-it QB1.

Trevor Lawrence Case: Lawrence features an absurd arsenal of weapons surrounding him. For example, he boasts Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange, and two-way sensation Travis Hunter. On top of eclipsing 4,000 passing yards, Lawrence got it done with his legs last year. Specifically, he averaged 21.1 rushing yards per game while punching in six rushing touchdowns. As a result, his dual-threat production gives fantasy managers a super reliable weekly floor.

Verdict: Trevor Lawrence. His surrounding playmakers paired with the leap he made last season suggest he will easily maintain this production. Furthermore, he has realistic upside to push into elite top-five territory.

Battle 3: Patrick Mahomes (QB13) vs. Brock Purdy (QB14)

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

• 2025 Stats: 3,587 passing yards, 22 PASS TDs, 11 INTs | 422 rushing yards, 5 RUSH TDs (14 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 18.9 FPPG

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

• 2025 Stats: 2,295 passing yards, 20 PASS TDs, 6 INTs | 180 rushing yards, 2 RUSH TDs (9 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 20.8 FPPG

Patrick Mahomes Case: Mahomes is easily a top-five quarterback of all time. However, his fantasy outlook carries real red flags. For instance, his supporting cast is anchored by an aging Travis Kelce, a perpetually legally-troubled Rashee Rice, and a banged-up Xavier Worthy. Most importantly, Mahomes is working his way back from a late-season ACL tear. Thus, even with news that he’s healthy for camp, we must tread lightly regarding his rushing ceiling.

Brock Purdy Case: Purdy isn’t the flashiest name on the board. However, he consistently delivers. After battling through big toe, shoulder, and neck injuries that limited him to nine games last year, he still posted an elite 20.8 fantasy points per game. He also threw 2.2 touchdowns per start. Now fully healthy, Purdy plays in Kyle Shanahan’s high-efficiency offense. As a result, he offers sneaky rushing capabilities alongside elite pass-catchers Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and newcomer Mike Evans.

Verdict: Brock Purdy. He is perennially underrated when looking at fantasy football QB ADP trends. Therefore, he is the ultimate target after you load up on elite receivers and running backs. Playing in a competitive NFC West with a middle-of-the-pack defense means San Francisco will constantly be pushed into high-scoring shootouts. Consequently, Purdy offers comfortable QB1 production at a fraction of the cost.

For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2026 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

Battle 4: Kyler Murray (QB17) vs. Bo Nix (QB15), Baker Mayfield (QB18), & Jordan Love (QB19)

Kyler Murray (Minnesota Vikings)

• 2025 Stats: 1,180 passing yards, 7 PASS TDs, 3 INTs | 195 rushing yards, 2 RUSH TDs (5 Games Played)

• 2025 Fantasy Points: 16.8 FPPG

The Competition Stats (2025 FPPG):

• Bo Nix (Broncos): 17.2 FPPG (15 Games Played)

• Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers): 16.5 FPPG (16 Games Played)

• Jordan Love (Packers): 17.9 FPPG (12 Games Played)

The Competition:

• Bo Nix: Coming off a late-season ankle surgery that leaves his mobility up in the air.

• Baker Mayfield: Navigating noticeable organizational turmoil in Tampa Bay alongside a scheme transition.

• Jordan Love: Possesses indisputable weekly upside. However, he lost key weapons over the offseason and carries a frustratingly injury-prone profile, making him tough to trust week in and week out.

The Kyler Murray Case: Assuming Murray secures the primary starting job in Minnesota, get ready for Kevin O’Connell’s next reclamation project. Murray escaped organizational dysfunction in Arizona. Furthermore, he now steps into an elite passing ecosystem with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson. Before a Week 5 foot sprain cut his 2025 short, Murray proved across a full 17-game 2024 campaign (18.1 FPPG, 537 rushing yards) that his rushing floor guarantees top-12 production when healthy.

The Competition Case (Nix, Mayfield, & Love): On paper, all three quarterbacks represent safer floors. After all, Kyler Murray has battled inconsistency over recent seasons. Furthermore, Nix, Mayfield, and Love benefit from greater continuity within their respective offensive systems.

Verdict: Kyler Murray. Murray is the easiest target of this entire late-round group. Getting a dynamic dual-threat quarterback inside a Kevin O’Connell offense at double-digit round pricing is a criminal discount. Therefore, skip the headache of Nix’s ankle recovery, Baker’s team turmoil, and Love’s health roulette. Instead, smash the draft button on Murray to enjoy top-10 fantasy production at a late-round price tag.

Conclusion

And there you have it: 10 quarterbacks, four distinct draft-day battles, and four clear winners to target when you’re on the clock!

When you’re staring at the draft board with seconds ticking down, it’s easy to get paralyzed by similar fantasy football quarterback ADP values. However, by weighing raw ceiling, game script, defensive support, and schedule outlooks, making the right pick becomes a lot less stressful. Ultimately, fantasy football is all about maximizing value and finding the guys who will consistently “matriculate” points into your lineup every single Sunday.

Now that we’ve cleared up these middle-and-late-round QB headaches, go smash that draft button with confidence.

Who are you clicking on in these ADP battles? Let me know who you’re siding with, and don’t forget to check back for more position battles as we count down these final weeks until kickoff!