Welcome back, race fans. This week, the NASCAR Cup series heads to the track “Too Tough to Tame”, Darlington Speedway for the Goodyear 400 this Sunday. It marks the third race on a mile and a half intermediate this season, and like Homestead, it produces some excellent racing due to the older surface and high tire wear.
From a fantasy perspective, the importance of the dominator is high, as we have seen at least one driver lead 100 or more laps in nine straight races here. In four of those races, we have seen two drivers lead 90 or more laps. From a correlation standpoint, qualifying is a little less important as Darlington has the lowest correlation of starting and finishing position of all six intermediate tracks and 20th among all 26 tracks. This usually means we see a higher-than-normal amount of drivers with double-digit place differential upside. This obviously will depend on qualifying on Saturday. Stay tuned.
Let’s dive in and look at some trends leading up to race weekend.
Goodyear 400: Track History
The track nickname “Too Tough to Tame” says it all. No driver in the NextGen era(2022-present) has an average finish inside 10th or has multiple wins here at Darlington. Only Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin finished Top-10 in both races last year, while only four drivers in William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski, and Tyler Reddick, have four Top 10s in the six races in the NextGen car. Kyle Larson leads all drivers with 392 laps led over those six races, with Tyler Reddick(275), Denny Hamlin(256), Kyle Busch(174), and Joey Logano(171) rounding out the Top 5 in that area.
Goodyear 400: Track Type History
In this category, we will be looking at data trends with all mile-and-a-half intermediate tracks grouped together. This includes Darlington, Homestead, Las Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, and Texas.
While Kyle Larson has just a 50% Top 10 rate since the start of last season on these tracks overall, he leads the way with three wins, including the most recent race at Homestead. He also leads all drivers by a long shot with 681 laps led over those 11 races. It may be a small sample size, but A.J. Allmendinger leads all drivers with a 7.7 average finish as he has finished Top-10 in all three races on the track type since the start of last season, which has been incredible value at his price. Right behind him is Denny Hamlin with a 7.8 average finish, and while he has no wins in that time, he leads all drivers with five Top 5s and nine Top 10 finishes over that 11-race sample size. Alex Bowman comes in third with an 8.8 average finish and enters this race with a streak of five straight Top 10 finishes on intermediate tracks. From a value standpoint, not only does Allmendinger stand out, Ryan Preece enters the week with three straight Top 10s on intermediate track,s picking up 15+ place differential points in two of those three.
Goodyear 400: Top Targets
Denny Hamlin (DK $10,100 / FD $13,000)
One of the first things I look at when NASCAR is at a high tire wear track is experience and Denny has a lot of it. He leads all drivers with four career wins here at Darlington and is one of just two drivers to tally a Top 10 in both races at the track last season. Denny has also been very good on intermediate tracks for his career and more recently as he comes into this one with Top 10 finishes in eight of his last nine races on mile and a half tracks. To top it off, Hamlin has a ton of momentum coming off a dominant performance at Martinsville where he led 274 laps en route to his first win of the season. He has also finished inside the Top 5 in three of his last four races. Look for that momentum to carry over to this week as he looks to make back-to-back trips to victory lane.
Alex Bowman (DK $8,300 / FD $7,500)
In the mid-tier of pricing, I will be right back on Alex Bowman this week in a bounce-back spot. Things were looking good at Martinsville until multiple pit road issues put a damper on the day as he finished 28th. Before that, he had tallied Top 10s in five of six races on the season, including both intermediate tracks in Homestead(2nd) and Las Vegas(7th). While the track history is a bit spotty for Bowman, he does have Top 10s in two of his last four races here. He has been incredibly consistent on the mile-and-a-half tracks, as well, with eight Top 10s in 11 races since the start of last season, along with the 3rd best average finish(8.8). I always prefer Bowman starting outside the Top 10 to give us some place differential upside, but would again consider him starting further forward if he shows good speed in practice.
Ryan Preece (DK $7,200 / FD $6,800)
Make to pay close attention to RFK Racing’s #60 Ryan Preece this weekend as he has been providing elite PTS/$ value lately. After starting 32nd, 18th, and 33rd at Daytona, Atlanta, and COTA, Preece has been terrific, finishing no worse than 15th in four straight races, including three straight Top 10 finishes at some tough tracks. His track history also stands out as he has finished 17th or better five of his last seven trips to Darlington, including three of four in the NextGen car with Stewart-Haas Racing.
