The Christopher Bell winning streak came to an end at Las Vegas and instead saw a first-time winner in Josh Berry. It ended up being a wild race in terms of cautions (9) and lead changes (32) which are both among the most on intermediate tracks since the start of the 2024 NASCAR season.
This week the Cup Series travels east to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 on Sunday afternoon. It will be the sixth race of the season and the second straight race on a 1.5-mile intermediate track. From 2002 to 2019, Homestead was the last race on the schedule and home of Championship weekend for all three series. Since NASCAR changed the location of Championship weekend to Phoenix, Homestead has bounced around the schedule from June to February to October and now to March. It is a terrific track for racing, both for driver and fan, as there are multiple racing lines that drivers can utilize to avoid single-file racing.Â
Let’s dive in and look at some trends leading up to race weekend.
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Track History
Looking at the last 10 races at Homestead, there has been at least one driver to lead 80 or more laps in each, at least one driver to lead 100 or more laps in six of those races, and there have been two drivers to lead 50 or more laps in nine of those 10 races. The overall lap leader has come from the pole position four times and six of the last seven races have seen the lap leader come from a Top 5 starting position.Â
Tyler Reddick got the win here last season and is right near the top of my track history model with 4th place finishes in four of his five trips to Homestead. After a rough start to his Homestead career(24th, 39th), William Byron has been terrific with Top 10’s in four of his last five including a win in 2021 where he led 102 laps after starting 31st. It has been a roller coaster ride for Kyle Larson here at Homestead but he has a win and five Top 5 finishes in his last nine races. Larson also leads all drivers with 296 laps led in the three races with the NextGen car. Speaking of the NextGen car, there has only been one driver to tally a Top 10 finish in each race and that driver is A.J. Allmendinger.
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Track Type History
Looking at the last 10 races on 15-mile intermediate tracks, only Kyle Larson has tallied multiple wins(Kansas, Las Vegas) but due to his inconsistency, he is just 8th in average finish during that stretch. That doesn’t mean fade him, however, as he has been dominant from a fantasy standpoint leading 60 or more laps five times and 180 or more twice. The two most consistent drivers in terms of Top 10’s have been Denny Hamlin and William Byron who lead the series with eight. From a current intermediate form standpoint, Byron and his Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman come in hot with four straight Top 10s each.
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Form
Through five races in the 2025 season, it has been Christopher Bell leading the way with three wins but is second to William Byron(8.0) in terms of average finish(9.8). They are the only two drivers with a sub-10 average finish and also lead the series with three Top 5’s a piece. Byron and his teammate Alex Bowman are the only two drivers with four Top 10s in the five races while their other teammate, Chase Elliott, is the only driver with a Top 20 in all five races. The Hendrick Motorsports drivers make up four of the Top 6 in average finish through five races. Josh Berry is forcing his way into the conversation as well after a huge win last week and with a 4th at Phoenix is one of just five drivers with multiple Top 5 finishes on the season.
Looking at all the factors, here are the top drivers in my pre-qualifying model:
- Christopher Bell
- William Byron
- Chase Elliott
- Alex Bowman
- Denny Hamlin
- A.J. Allmendinger
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Josh Berry
- Chris Buescher
Straight Talk Wireless 400: Top Targets
William Byron (DK $10,500 / FD $12,500)
He comes in 3rd and 4th in DraftKings and FanDuel salary and checks every box. He has a win and four Top 10s in his last five races here at Homestead. He also leads all drivers in Top 5’s(5) and is tied with Denny Hamlin for the lead in Top 10s (8) on intermediate tracks since the start of last season. Finally, he has had a terrific start to the season with a win, three Top 5s (T1), four Top 10s (T1), and a series-leading 8.0 average finish in five races. He topped the speed charts last week and if he continues showing this top speed, I will have a lot of exposure come Sunday.
Alex Bowman (DK $8,600 / FD $9,000)
I will be heavy on Hendrick Motorsports again this week and love the value with Bowman who checks every box and once again comes to us in the mid-range of pricing on both sites. He has two Top 10s here in his last three races at Homestead and has been very consistent on the intermediate tracks with the 3rd best average finish(9.6) since the start of last year. Momentum is also on his side as he and teammate Byron are the only drivers with four Top 10 finishes through the first five races of the 2025 season. Bowman rarely gives us dominator upside but consistently qualifies outside the Top 10 giving him some place differential potential to make up for it.
A.J. Allmendinger (DK $7,000 / FD $6,000)
There is a chance Allmendinger will be the highest-owned driver this week and it will be hard to fade regardless. Like I mentioned above, he is the only driver with Top 10s in all three races here in the NextGen car and is 3rd in fantasy scoring over that stretch. Considering he consistently runs in the bottom tier of pricing, that is some crazy PTS/$ value. While the start to the season has been bumpy, at best, he is coming off a Top 10 at Las Vegas and could primed for a 4th straight Top 10 at Homestead.
