Dave Funnell continues his series looking at the injury history and risk position by position. This week, he once again digs into the injury concerns at the starting pitcher position, this time going even deeper into the player pool. For more injury analysis make sure to follow Dave on Twitter @sportz_nutt51.
When assessing the future stats of a player, it’s imperative to consider player health and injury risk when speculating on playing time. After all, getting onto the field and being given a chance to succeed only happens if the player is healthy enough. That’s why looking at a player’s track record of health gives credence to whether someone is worth drafting. A fantasy team could have all the talent in the world, but if they’re on your Injured List or bench, they lose a ton of value.
We are moving into the heart of draft season, and all eyes will be on the top players at each position. Knowing of any inherent risk to drafting someone can help teams in the long run. That’s why going through the examinations of injury risk is important for roster construction. The following will be the Injury History of the top players at every position with special notes on their healthy or troubled pasts. Seeing trends in their health could help determine any future problems.
Starting Pitcher Injury Risk for 2025 Fantasy Baseball
The players listed below will be separated into one of three categories: red light, yellow light, green light. The timeframe that will be examined will primarily be from 2021 to 2023, though looking into the distant past might also take place.
Red Light: any players listed here have an extensive and/or concerning injury history that seems likely to come into play in the future. The potential for injury outweighs their production on the field and their selection could lead to roster problems down the line. The reoccurrence of a particular injury or multiple injuries also creates the need for a red light. Fantasy owners should be wary of drafting these players because the risk of injury is high.
Yellow Light: any players listed here have had their injury problems before, but they’re not necessarily prone to injury. These players here have situations to monitor, especially during the off-season and Spring Training, but it’s not necessarily as bleak as it could be. The types of injuries could also be freakish or due to bad luck with events leading to it being out of the ordinary. Fantasy owners should be aware of the injury history, but know the possibility for health is there too.
Green Light: any players listed here have had minimal problems and their future doesn’t appear to be in any jeopardy. There is nothing from their past that would indicate an injury-prone future. While injuries could happen at any time, there are no red flags in this player’s history to suggest it will lead to another one. Fantasy owners can feel safe in drafting these players.
Things to remember:
- The players listed are in the general order from which they are being drafted.
- The level of confidence has to do with their health and nothing to do with their abilities on the field.
- A player’s injured past is not a direct indication that they will get injured in the future.
- Pitchers tend to be more prone to getting injured as opposed to hitters, especially with long-term injuries.
- The minimum time away on the Injured List is ten days for hitters and fifteen days for pitchers.
1. Joe Ryan – Minnesota Twins
2024 – 135.0 innings pitched, 23 games started
Joe Ryan is recovering from a grade-2 teres major strain that he suffered during the 2024 season. All reports have him feeling near or at 100% health, as he was throwing bullpens and doing so after a normal off-season. He had a complete resolution of this problem and looks ready to rebound in 2025. He has looked good throughout Spring Training. Other than a strained groin injury in 2023, his Major League career. Draft with confidence.
2. Tyler Glasnow – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 – 134.0 innings pitched, 22 games started
Tyler Glansow has had a long history of injuries. His 134.0 innings pitched last season was a career-high, and yet he still couldn’t pitch through an entire season. Four of his professional seasons have been hampered by injuries that required a 60-day Injured List designation. As for his most recent injury, which was an elbow sprain following tendinitis, there was some concern that it was a serious injury, as he himself was quoted as saying that it hurt when he was throwing. The good news is that his latest MRI came back clean early in January, which hopefully means he has rid himself of any potential danger. That said, sprains can mean a tear, and a tear can’t always be fixed with rest. He is someone with the potential to miss some time this season despite the strong start to his Spring Training. Draft with caution.
3. Max Fried – New York Yankees
2024 – 174.1 innings pitched, 29 games started
Max Fried has a long and complicated history of injuries. Over his eight seasons with the Braves, he was placed on the Injured List ten times for injuries all over the place, with four of them being for blisters. He also had a forearm injury that brought about some concern last season, as his average pitch velocity fluctuated around the time of that ailment. There were some worries that this could preclude some underlying issues for a bigger injury, but alas, the Yankees signed him to a lengthy contract this off-season, so they must feel that all will be well. Still, one can’t help but feel like every start is walking on eggshells while we wait for the ax to fall. Draft with attention.
4. Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds
2024 – 150.1 innings pitched, 26 games started
Hunter Greene broke out in a big way last season, proving to everyone that he has what it takes to be one of baseball’s best pitchers. Unfortunately for him, his season was cut short due to inflammation in his elbow later in the season, causing him to miss significant time. While he did return before the season’s end, it’s a reminder that pitchers who throw incredibly hard (like Greene does) can be susceptible to injury, as this is such an unnatural movement. There is a significant risk that once he ramps things up and pitches at his highest velocity again, he reinjures himself or does more damage. Draft with caution.
5. Tanner Bibee – Cleveland Guardians
2024 – 173.2 innings pitched, 31 games started
Despite suffering a late season-ending hip injury in 2023, Tanner Bibee has a relatively clean injury history with minimal concerns. Draft with confidence.
6. Logan Webb – San Francisco Giants
2024 – 204.2 innings pitched, 33 games started
Logan Webb has missed one start over his last three seasons, and that was at the end of the 2022 season because of a strained lower back. He has been rock solid overall and should continue to be so in 2025. Draft with confidence.
7. Hunter Brown – Houston Astros
2024 – 170.0 innings pitched, 31 games started
Hunter Brown has had a very uneventful injury history with no concerns whatsoever. Draft with confidence.
8. Freddy Peralta – Milwaukee Brewers
2024 – 173.2 innings pitched, 32 games started
After struggling to stay healthy at the beginning of his career, Freddy Peralta has done well to stay on the mound over his past two seasons. He started 62 games at that time, which ranks him near the top of the league. He has been able to figure out a way to stay healthy after suffering through multiple shoulder injuries and a long-standing lat injury. While he’s done well to overcome these ailments, his injury history is worth remembering. Draft with attention.
9. Grayson Rodriguez – Baltimore Orioles
2024 – 116.2 innings pitched, 20 games started
Grayson Rodriguez was supposed to be the next big thing in baseball and in Baltimore, but his complicated injury history has some red flags. He has missed time twice for a lat issue, and it’s the latter that gives the biggest worry. After missing the end of his 2024 season because of it, Rodriguez worked hard to prepare for the 2025 season over the winter. When he arrived at camp, things seemed to be progressing until one start in the spring when he felt sluggish and unable to get his velocity to where he wanted it to be. It turned out that he was suffering from sore triceps and elbow pain that would result in him beginning the season on the Injured List for an undetermined amount of time. He has started to throw from 75 feet, but that is only the beginning stage of his long journey back to health. Draft with caution.
10. Sonny Gray – St. Louis Cardinals
2024 – 166.1 innings pitched, 28 games started
Sonny Gray has been in the Major Leagues for twelve seasons, and in that time, he has seen his fair share of injuries. Despite racking up over 1700 innings, he has also accumulated thirteen trips to the Injured List for various ailments all over his body. Last season, he missed time with a hamstring injury before ending his season early with forearm tendinitis. While he had a normal off-season and appears to be pitching well this spring, his injury history is incredibly complex, making him an unstable source of innings. Chances are that he misses time this season, but it’s unclear how much. Draft with attention.
11. Shane McClanahan – Tampa Bay Rays
2024 – DNP
Shane McClanahan missed the entire 2024 season after having his second Tommy John Surgery the year before. Not only that, his injury history is riddled with back injuries that make him a very questionable pick in 2025. The success rate of pitchers with multiple Tommy John Surgeries is quite small, so the chance for him not only to stay healthy but return to his former levels isn’t as likely as those drafting him high might want to see. While it’s not impossible for him to defy the odds, he does have a long uphill battle to do so, especially given his new home confides this season. Draft with attention.
12. Zac Gallen – Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 – 148.0 innings pitched, 28 games started
Zac Gallen took a step backward in both production and output in 2024, primarily because of a hamstring injury that cost him around one month. Not only that, but during his 2023 season, he threw 210.0 innings in the regular season before throwing even more in the postseason. As such, it felt like it was only a matter of time before his body gave way to some sort of ailment. Still, he comes into the new season with a chance for redemption, a rather healthy injury history, and the ability to throw for a lot of innings in his back pocket. Buy the dip. Draft with confidence.
13. Justin Steele – Chicago Cubs
2024 – 134.2 innings pitched, 24 games started
Justin Steele has been a workhorse for the Cubs over the past few seasons, with minor injuries here and there along the way. However, digging deeper, one has to wonder if the shoe is about to fall off the other foot. In 2023, he suffered a forearm injury that cost him two weeks, and while he was able to return and remain healthy, it was something to monitor, nonetheless. In 2024, his body gave way to not just a hamstring strain but also elbow tendinitis, which could have led to a more significant injury with more time. He did return late in September to throw 6.2 innings over two starts, so perhaps that’s just another example of him defying the odds. Still, one has to wonder how many times he can avoid something serious. Draft with attention.
14. Bryan Woo – Seattle Mariners
2024 – 121.1 innings pitched, 22 games started
Bryan Woo’s 2024 season was a curious one that is hard to understand. He was sidelined with elbow inflammation in March, just eight months after going on the Injured List with forearm inflammation. However, each time that he was injured, the reassurance was that there was no structural damage done. In addition to that, he missed a few starts with inflammation but never went on the Injured List. If you look at how he was used in 2024, his workload went up. Before August, he threw 80+ pitches just once, whereas after that, he did it nine times. It feels like he’s getting away with pitching while injured and that eventually this will catch up to him, though it’s hard to pinpoint if and when it will happen. Draft with caution.
15. Sandy Alcantara – Miami Marlins
2024 – DNP
Sandy Alcantara missed all of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John Surgery. He had a rather straightforward and setback-free year in that everything went as planned. By season’s end, he was throwing bullpens, and this spring, he has already taken part in multiple games. The team has said that there are no restrictions on his workload, so it appears all systems go for him moving forward. There is usually a Tomm John Surgery honeymoon, in that healthwise, his elbow should remain healthy for the time being. While his performance may not be reminiscent of what it once was, the Marlins may be looking to showcase his talents and health for a trade. Draft with attention.
16. Jack Flaherty – SP Detroit Tigers
2024 – 162.0 innings pitched, 28 games started
Jack Flaherty was able to stay relatively healthy last season, proving to everyone that when he is on the field, he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball. The problem is that, prior to the 2023 season, his shoulder prevented him from pitching. His health will always be a concern, though it’s fair to question if that’s the case due to a “first-impression-like” mentality in that he burned so many owners after his early-career breakout. Still, he’s worth taking a chance on in drafts simply because he can be a fantastic third option in fantasy. Draft with attention.
17. Jared Jones – Pittsburgh Pirates
2024 – 121.2 innings pitched, 22 games started
Other than a lat injury in 2024, Jared Jones has had a very clean injury history with minimal concerns. As of yesterday, Jared Jones was diagnosed with elbow discomfort and is seeking a second opinion. Draft with caution.
18. Carlos Rodon – New York Yankees
2024 – 175.0 innings pitched, 32 games started
Last season, Carlos Rodon threw for his second-most innings in a season, only three behind his final year in San Francisco. He also started 32 games, which for him, was a career high. The fact that both of these totals were impressive this late into his career indicates the struggles that he had earlier in his career to remain healthy. He has been on the Injured List nine times in his ten-year career, and five of those times extended themselves into 60 days and beyond. Needless to say, when he does get injured, it will likely last for a while. Draft with caution.
19. Kodai Senga – New York Mets
2024 – 5.1 innings pitched, 1 game started
Kodai Senga had a fantastic debut season for the Mets in 2023 but was unable to stay healthy for any substantial period in 2024. Off-season shoulder problems led to setbacks in his recovery, causing him to miss most of last season with multiple injuries. Even when he returned with a healthy shoulder, a calf injury shut him down for the year, though he did return for the team’s postseason run. While he is healthy this spring, his struggles last season are too big to ignore, making him a boom-or-bust type player in drafts. His talent is undeniable, but will he have the chance to showcase it on the mound? It’s hard to say, and for that, attention needs to be paid. Draft with attention.
20. Robbie Ray – San Francisco Giants
2024 – 30.2 innings pitched, 7 games started
Robbie Ray returned to the mound last summer and struggled mightily to regain his old form. Following his time away to heal from Tommy John Surgery, Ray was unable to adapt to his time on the mound and suffered a srrained left hamstring, possibly while trying to compensate for his extended time away. Still, at only age 33, he has a chance to be a league-winning pitcher due to his past accomplishments and current price. Draft with confidence.
21. Christopher Sanchez – Philadelphia Phillies
2024 – 181.2 innings pitched, 31 games started
The only real concern here with Christopher Sanchez is his big uptick in innings pitched from 2023 over to 2024. His total has nearly doubled over one year, and there is a possibility of fatigue or injury here, as evidenced in the recent Luis Gil injury. That being said, he is on a team that builds workhorses, and as such, they may have some knowledge of how to keep Sanchez on the mound and at his best. Let’s give him and the Phillies the benefit of the doubt here. Draft with confidence.
22. Ryan Pepiot – Tampa Bay Rays
2024 – 130 innings pitched, 26 games started
Ryan Pepiot has had his injury problems throughout his career, but a lot of them seem to be that to bad luck. A bruised leg and a knee infection don’t indicate that he is injury-prone but rather show an unfortunate nature. Draft with confidence.
23. Kevin Gausman – Toronto Blue Jays
2024 – 181.0 innings pitched, 33 games started
Kevin Gausman had injury problems early in his career. His right shoulder gave him problems up until the end of the 2019 season before having a reliably healthy run after that. His 2024 season was admittedly (by him) one that he found troublesome after a sore shoulder sidelined him at Spring Training. He found it difficult to get things going and on track and was behind all season long. He says he is 100% healthy this year, and time will tell if that’s true. Draft with attention.
24. Yusei Kikuchi – Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 – 175.2 innings pitched, 32 games started
Yusei Kikuchi has had a very clean injury history, with only minor blemishes in the four years he has pitched. Draft with confidence.
25. Nick Pivetta – San Diego Padres
2024 – 145.2 innings pitched, 27 games started
Nick Pivetta had a strained right elbow flexor last season which caused him to miss one month of action. Other than, complications with Covid-19 are the only other conditions that were cause for concern over this Major League career. Draft with confidence.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
