NBA Fantasy Buy Low, Sell High: Day 1 Overreactions

The NBA season is officially one day old, which means fantasy managers everywhere have already decided their first-round pick is a bust, a waiver-wire flyer is the next league winner, and someone is probably sending trade offers based entirely on a single box score.

It’s a glorious time of year.

One night of basketball gives us just enough information to be dangerous. The reality, of course, is that one day of play with only six teams in action will never tell us the full story. But in fantasy basketball, perception creates value, and value creates opportunity.

This week we’re embracing the chaos. Let’s identify the players whose stock has swung wildly after opening night and separate the genuine trends from the inevitable overreactions. These are the buy-low targets trading below their true value and the sell-high candidates whose market may never be hotter than it is right now.

Week 1 Fantasy Basketball Buy Low / Sell High

BUY LOW

Victor Wembanyama (SA)

This was bad, right? Oh, my giddy Aunt. What were we thinking of using a No.1 Pick on him in our fantasy drafts, right? Wrong. Let’s calm the collective farm here. However, if another manager is not feeling so cool as a cucumber, it is time to send out those offers.

All but Wemby’s FG% was elite yesterday. 0.77% is truly woeful. But everything else was elite. Even going 10/12 from the line and being plus-.800 on volume is a fantasy asset.

The 6 blocks are truly elite. But there will be those that panic based on the sexiest stat of all: points. A paltry 12 for The Alien yesterday is only made more glaring by the fact that on the opposite side of the court was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 32 points on .480% from the field, which included going 3-for-7 (.429%) from deep.

If his manager in your league is still hiding inside their panic room after yesterday’s performance, make sure when they emerge today your trade request is there to greet them.

Jayson Tatum (BOS)

The theme here is that we are aiming big with these two trades. First-round players, respectively. However, like Wembanyama’s game yesterday, when superstars have off games like this, the preseason question marks we had around them become amplified.

In Tatum’s case, it was: how is he going to integrate with Paul George? Is he fully healthy? Can he be the TRUE best player on a team instead of the continuous 1A/1B narrative that surrounded the J’s for the better part of the last decade?

The truth is Tatum will be fine. He will show his value, and yesterday’s inefficiencies were compounded by a come-from-behind victory to the Pistons in which the Celtics crumbled. Tatum’s 13-point performance is underscored by him going 0-for-7 from downtown. A career .368% 3PT shooter, he will be better than this. Though do temper expectations on his percentage clip. We tend to think of JT as a stellar 3PT shooter; however, he has regressed the last two seasons in 3P% after hitting .376% during the 23/24 season on 8.2 attempts per game.

What we LOVE is the 11 assists yesterday. If Tatum is going to be operating more as a facilitator in this offence and can get his rebounds up to normal. Then that is a fringe benefit I am all in for being on my fantasy team. The defensive stats will come and go as is the way, but he will be better offensively.

If wondering who to send for him, I did see a James Harden and Jalen Green for Jayson Tatum trade being discussed in one 9-Cat league. I would do that and replace Green (not in points formats) with the best guy on my wire.

John Collins (DET)/Neemias Queta (BOS)

Same same but different. Both are underperformers who will be better.

And… you might not have to trade for either. This is a WAIVER WIRE WATCH LIST!

Firstly, in the case of Collins, I think he is an excellent fit in Detroit and is a perfect replacement for the loss of Tobias Harris. He can also offer more defensive upside than TH had. When the shot isn’t dropping and those of Duncan Robinson and Ausar Thompson are, Collins looks ever so mid. A fringe Top 100 player who was outplayed by Javonte Green yesterday.

We’ve seen this from Collins before. The slings and arrows of outrageous fantasy fortunes. But keep your eye out; he could be dropped and we add.

Queta is a different story. Benched for Mitchell Robinson, much to the ire of myself and many. I have seen his ownership drop already on Fantrax and other platforms and am curious to see how long this sticks. Robinson is not the picture of health, and I truly think the Celtics looked better with the ousted incumbent from last year, Queta, holding the middle down. The Big Quesadilla (my loving nickname for Queta) also won the minutes war (22:08 to Robinson’s 18:06). This is positive.

Also, the fact we could get him for free on the wire from a manager who may drop him, considering the Celtics’ two-game schedule this week, is a must-watch situation in our leagues. Or, shoot over a small offer. You’ll profit long-term either way.

SELL HIGH

Paul George
Paul George
Paul George

Did I mention The Artist formerly known as Paul George?

I already liked Paul George this year. When healthy and doing PG things, he is still a Top 35 fantasy player. Yesterday’s performance emphasized this with a bullet. Coming away from a limited day of NBA action, yet with names like Shai, Wemby, Maxey, and Brunson in the mix, to walk away as the BEST player in fantasy is saying something. And this is also the reason why we sell. Because despite being this good, Paul George is NOT the best player in fantasy.

It was such a robust performance. An efficient .571% from the field, connecting on 7-for-12 from deep, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and a whopping 5 steals, all while setting a Celtics franchise record for a debut player, is certainly something. And although something… it is not sustainable. And that is why we sell.

There is inherent injury risk, there is inherent decline due to age, and many other factors here. But if I could trade George for an Amen Thompson, Jamal Murray, or a Duren, I certainly would.

Why Only One Sell-High This Week?

Usually, I’d give you multiple names in both the Buy Low and Sell High sections. This week, however, there’s only one Sell High candidate.

Why?

Because selling high is significantly harder than buying low.

When you’re buying low, the work has often already been done for you. A frustrated manager watches an early-round (or any round really) pick stumble and starts questioning their investment, and suddenly a window opens.

Selling high is different.

First, you’re usually the one initiating the conversation. The moment you send a trade offer involving a player coming off a monster performance, you’re effectively revealing your intentions. Maybe that’s fine, maybe it isn’t, but it does mean the negotiation starts with you behind the eight ball.

Second, successful sell-high opportunities generally require a larger sample size than a single great performance. One explosive game can be written off as a hot shooting night or a favorable matchup. Three or four strong performances in a row are much more persuasive. At that point, managers aren’t just looking at one box score; they’re looking at trends. The player is appearing on waiver-wire articles, fantasy podcasts, social media feeds, and trending players lists. The hot streak feels more real, which makes a trade discussion far easier to have.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, every potential sell-high candidate must pass the “Is This For Real?” test.

This is where fantasy managers earn their stripes and championships.

Has the player’s role genuinely changed? Is there a minutes increase? Has an injury opened opportunity? Is the production sustainable, or at least can a large percentage of it be maintained? If the answer is yes, then perhaps the correct move isn’t to sell at all. Perhaps you’ve simply identified a breakout before the rest of your league.

Making that distinction is critical.

The goal isn’t to trade every player who gets hot. The goal is to identify which performances are being overvalued by the market and which are legitimate indicators of future success. Get that call right, and you’re not just making trades for the sake of activity. You’re positioning your roster for long-term success.

Because in fantasy basketball, glory doesn’t belong to the manager who sends the most trades.

It belongs to the manager who makes the right move at the right time.

And to the victor go the spoils.