Last week, I recommended the Patriots, 49ers, and Colts. A massive Titans upset derailed what looked like a great Colts pick. That stings, but I also recommended fading the Rams, who ended up losing to the Cardinals despite drawing massive pick popularity. As bye weeks continue, options will remain limited each week. Let’s stay alive in Week 7.
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Week 7 NFL Survivor Picks
Houston Texans (-10.5) vs. New York Giants
If you’ve got them, use them. The Houston Texans have been in more shootouts than most expected, but they have shown an ability to perform on offense. C.J. Stroud is having a career year, averaging over 285 passing yards per game while throwing nine TDs to just one interception. The Texans rank 9th in DVOA and face a Giants team that will likely start J.J. McCarthy at QB. Uncertainty can be a killer in survivor pools, and it’s going to be difficult to know exactly what the Giants have in McCarthy. After being drafted 10th overall in 2024, McCarthy made 10 starts in his sophomore season. McCarthy averaged 163.2 passing yards and threw 11 TDs to 12 interceptions. In his lone game with real playing time with the Giants last week, McCarthy threw for 243 yards, a TD, and a pick in less than a single quarter.
We truly don’t know what we are going to see out of McCarthy with such a small sample size, but the Texans look great on offense right now. The Giants defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and allowed the Saints to drop 34 points on them last week. There are also questions about the run game. Cam Skattebo seemed to be in the doghouse after fumbling the week prior, as he did not get a single touch against the Saints. There are not a lot of great spots to use the Texans after this week. While they do host the Titans, that’s in Week 18 and we don’t know if Houston will be benching starters. While there are decent times to use the Texans before that, they offer immense value as a survivor pool pick in Week 7.
New York Jets (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins continue to be the worst team in the league. While the Dolphins are coming off of a bye, they visit a surprisingly competent Jets team. The Jets are coming off of a loss to the division rival Patriots, but they had opportunities to win that game. This could be a bounce-back spot for Gang Green.
New York ranks 20th in DVOA while Miami ranks dead last. Geno Smith has had his ups and downs, but for the most part he has done everything you could ask of a veteran. Smith is only averaging 222.7 passing yards per game and offers nothing on the ground, but he has only thrown a single interception this season. While Smith has taken 19 sacks, third in the league, he still ranks 19th in adjusted EPA/play. Breece Hall could play in this contest, but even if he misses time, Braelon Allen has been good in his absence. Rookie WR Omar Cooper returned from IR and caught six of seven targets for 103 yards and a TD. Add in Garrett Wilson, Kenyon Sadiq, and Adonai Mitchell, and this skill position group looks great.
The Miami Dolphins got some much-needed rest, and they could get their first win in a road game against a division rival like the Titans did last week. However, I am not going to be deterred by previous upsets. The Jets are the better team, and they offer no future value. This is the week to use them.
Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield could be back, but would that really matter? Tampa Bay’s offense may get a slight bump with a healthy Baker, but the veteran QB did not look good at the beginning of the year. In three starts, Mayfield went 0-3, threw for just 615 yards, and threw two TDs and two INTs. He also took 13 sacks, which is tied for 10th in the league despite missing three games. The only QB taking more sacks per dropback is Deshaun Watson.
What Tampa Bay does have is a phenomenal defense. The Buccaneers held the Steelers to just three points heading into the fourth quarter of last week’s loss. A fourth-quarter collapse led to an overtime loss, but they still rank 6th in defensive DVOA. That could play a part in a Buccaneers upset, but the lack of offense is still a major concern.
The Panthers, on the other hand, look like they can compete with anyone. After a 59-37 thrashing in Week 1, Bryce Young and company bounced back and went 4-1 in their last five games. Young is leading the lead in passing yards per game and the Panthers offense ranks eighth in DVOA. Their defense is below-average, but not something that will cause concern against most teams. While the Panthers look good, they have a difficult schedule for the rest of the season. If there was a time to use it, it’s in Week 7. Consider the Panthers as a pivot if you’re trying to avoid the biggest favorites in your survivor pool.
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Survivor Picks to Fade
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Coming off a bye and boasting the best defense in the league, the Vikings look like a great pick this week. Not only that, but they play host to a Colts team that just blew a lead to the Titans and will be trotting out an awful Daniel Jones at QB. That makes for incredible value, but I have some concerns. The Vikings offense ranks 27th in DVOA, and they have had close calls in all of their games. While the Vikings are 5-0, they do not look invincible, even against some of the worst teams in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts do not scare me on a weekly basis, but they are decent enough on both sides of the ball to get an upset here. The Vikings were worth taking weeks ago against the Dolphins, but Survivor Grid currently projects about 17% of entries will take them this week. That’s not an insane amount, but it’s a pretty big chunk. Unless you are in a pool where you need to save every drop of future value, the Vikings are worth fading. Avoid Minnesota in Week 7 and hope for an upset.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 7 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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