Everyone’s favorite question in the offseason is “Who is this year’s _______?”. Basically, asking who for the coming season can have a similar year to another player the year prior. This typically will mean looking at what a player did, why they did what they did, and then projecting forward. Not everything needs to completely line up when doing these comparisons, but there have to be some similarities that pave the path to similar production.
I am a huge fan of this topic and look forward to piecing it together every year. This requires some thinking outside the box, creativity, and analysis that hopefully will result in you targeting these players and succeeding. That is always the goal at the end of the day, to help you “Play 2 Win”. I have the 2025 versions of 2024 Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, Bucky Irving, Brian Thomas Jr., Terry McLaurin, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London, Courtland Sutton, Jauan Jennings, and Jonnu Smith. Let’s get it!
What!? Your fantasy football league wasn’t hosted on Fantrax last season!? Once you see how Fantrax stacks up to the competition, we think you’ll be singing a different tune in the 2025 season.
The 2025 Versions of 2024 Fantasy Football Performances
The 2025 Version of 2024 Joe Burrow
Qualifier: A quarterback who is coming off a season when they were injured and then bounces back to a huge passing statistical year.
Answer: Dak Prescott
In 2023, Joe Burrow played in just 10 games due to injury, but bounced back in a major way the next season in 2024. Burrow finished last season as the leader in passing yards (4,918) and also passing touchdowns (43) with his alpha wide receiver in Ja’Marr Chase exploding, along with WR2 Tee Higgins being great when healthy.
In 2024, Dak Prescott played in just eight games due to injury, but he can follow the same path as Burrow in 2025. Back in 2023, when healthy, Dak finished third in passing yards with 4,516 and first in passing touchdowns with 36. That year, CeeDee Lamb produced 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns, but now has a major WR2 upgrade for 2025 in George Pickens, who produced 1,140 receiving yards in 2023. Jake Ferguson at tight end looks like a solid third option in himself, who finished with 761 yards back in 2023. Dak is in for a huge bounce-back and is a great target for Fantasy Football drafts this season.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Sam Darnold
Qualifier: A quarterback who gets a fresh start in a new home and turns their career completely around.
Answer: Justin Fields
Sam Darnold (former first-round selection) was a Jet from 2018 to 2020, a Panther from 2021 to 2022, a 49er in 2023, and became a Viking in 2024 (now a Seahawk). Prior to 2024, Darnold never played over 13 games and played just 16 total in the 2023 and 2022 seasons. In 2024, Darnold secured the starting Vikings role following a JJ McCarthy injury, finishing the year with 545 passing attempts, 4,319 passing yards, and 35 passing touchdowns.
Justin Fields (former first-round selection) was a Bear from 2021 to 2023, a Steeler in 2024, and then this offseason was signed to a two-year, $40 million contract with the Jets. Fields flashed last year in several ways through his six starts (4-2 record), but ultimately was benched for Russell Wilson. Fields in 2023 for Chicago passed for 2,562 yards and rushed for 1,143 (second most by a quarterback ever) the year prior. The odds have always seemed against Fields from a coaching, protection, weapons, and overall situational point of view but he gets a new start in 2025. Fields will get to pair up with his former college wide receiver in Garrett Wilson for the Jets, and has had two big Fantasy seasons, averaging 18.4 PPG (#9) in 2023 and 20.5 PPG (#5) in 2022.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Bucky Irving
Qualifier: A fourth-round running back who is drafted to a team that has a perceived starting running back already, but carves up a substantial role in year one with big Fantasy impacts
Answer: Cam Skattebo
In 2023, Rachaad White produced 990 rushing yards paired with 549 receiving yards for the Buccaneers in what would be a huge Fantasy season for the second-year back. Bucky Irving was selected the next season in the fourth round out of Oregon, and many believed he would be just a handcuff to White after his big season. Despite White finishing 2024 with 195 touchers, Bucky finished the year with 207 rushing attempts for 1,121 yards paired with 47 catches for 392 receiving yards and averaged 14.4 Fantasy PPG (#19).
As a fifth-round rookie last season, Tryone Tracy Jr. produced 839 rushing yards paired with 38 receptions for another 284 receiving yards and averaged 10.7 Fantasy PPG (#31). The Giants went on to select Cam Skattebo out of Arizona State in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Skattebo finished his final college season with 293 rushing attempts, 1,711 rushing yards, 21 rushing touchdowns, 45 catches, 605 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. Absolute monster, do-it-all season. I do not think Skattebo completely snatches all the work in New York as a rookie, but I do project a similar happening to where both he and Tracy Jr. are implemented as a committee, like Irving and White were last year, with Skattebo being the more Fantasy dominant one.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Brian Thomas Jr.
Qualifier: A first-round rookie who fills his team’s need for an alpha receiver with both yardage and touchdown upside
Answer: Tetairoa McMillan
In 2023, the best-performing wide receiver for the Jaguars was Calvin Ridley, who caught 76 balls for 1,016 receiving yards. Ridley would depart last offseason, and to fill the void for an alpha receiver with upside, the Jaguars selected Brian Thomas Jr. out of LSU with the 23rd pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. The result: 133 targets, 87 catches, 1,282 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns, even with their starting quarterback missing time.
In 2024, no Carolina Panther earned 85 or more targets. No Panther produced even 650 receiving yards or scored over five touchdowns. To fill the clear void for their franchise quarterback in Bryce Young, the Panthers drafted Tetairoa McMillan out of Arizona with the eighth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. McMillan finished with 1,319 and 1,402 receiving yards in 2024 and 2023 as respectively, and totaled 26 career receiving touchdowns through three college seasons. TMac has the DNA of an alpha wide receiver with upside, who should step immediately into volume, which can translate to Fantasy Football upside. Especially seeing the Fantasy relevance of veteran Adam Thielen when healthy in Carolina the last two seasons.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Terry McLaurin
Qualifier: A veteran wide receiver who has a major Fantasy Football season attached to a rookie quarterback as the clear alpha target in their system
Answer: Calvin Ridley
The Commanders selected Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to pair up with Terry McLaurin, who was entering his sixth season. The result for McLaurin: 117 targets, 82 catches, 1,096 receiving yards, 13 receiving touchdowns, and 15.8 Fantasy PPG (#14). AKA, Terry’s best season to date. Big year with a rookie quarterback.
Calvin Ridley returned to football in 2023 after playing just five games in 2021 and no games in 2022 due to mental health reasons and a gambling suspension. In 2023, Ridley racked up 1,016 receiving yards and eight touchdowns with the Jaguars. Then, in 2024 with the Titans, Ridley produced 1,017 receiving yards and four touchdowns with the Titans. This production was attached to Trevor Lawrence, Will Levis, and Mason Rudolph. The Titans went on to select Cam Ward out of Miami with the first overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft. Ward is coming off a season he threw 4,313 passing yards and an FBS-leading 39 passing touchdowns. Titans Head Coach Brian Callahan, formerly the Bengals Offensive Coordinator with Joe Burrow and gang, finally has a gunslinging quarterback he can let it rip. With minimum competition in Tennessee, like Terry had last year in Washington, Ridley can have a massive season with a rookie quarterback.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Qualifier: A great prospect who had a rookie season that fell under expectations but ended up having a huge sophomore season jump
Answer: Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Seahawks selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. As a rookie JSN earned 93 targets, caught 63 of them for 628 receiving yards, scored four touchdowns, and averaged 8.8 Fantasy PPG (#56). JSN took a major statistical leap in 2024 as a sophomore, though, earning 137 targets, catching 100 balls for 1,130 receiving yards, scoring six touchdowns, and averaging 14.9 Fantasy PPG (#17). Patience was key when it came to the talent of JSN.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was the first Ohio State wide receiver to have multiple 1,000-yard receiving seasons and had the DNA of a future NFL WR1 just like his father. The Cardinals ended up selecting MHJ with the fourth-overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft to give Kyler Murray a true WR1. MHJ finished the season earning 116 targets, catching 62 of them for 885 yards, scoring eight touchdowns, and averaging 11.6 Fantasy PPG (#39). Finishing top-seven in both air yards and deep targets as a rookie was a sign of upside, but also could explain the disconnect between MHJ and Kyler at times for those bigger plays. If the Cardinals sort out this offseason a way to more effectively get the ball into MHJ’s hands, we can see a substantial jump in his sophomore season production, like we did for JSN. Believe in talent.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Drake London
Qualifier: A wide receiver who breaks out in year three after being outside the top 30 wide receivers in each of their first two seasons in Fantasy PPG
Answer: Zay Flowers
Drake London was one of the best Fantasy Football breakouts in 2024, as he took a substantial leap in all statistics from 2022-2024. 117 to 109 to 157 targets, 72 to 69 to 100 receptions, 866 to 905 to 1,271 receiving yards, four to two to nine receiving touchdowns, and 10.5 to 10.9 to 16.5 Fantasy PPG. Classic year three wide receiver breakout, in a big way.
Zay Flowers has been the focal point through the air for the Ravens offense the last two seasons in a row. Flowers had 44 more targets (108 total) than any other Raven in 2023 and then again exactly 44 more targets (116) than any other Raven in 2024. Via playerprofiler, Flowers ranked #15 in yards after the catch in 2023, then #10 in 2024 for the position, showcasing playmaking abilities. In 2024, only Puka Nacua (45.45%), AJ Brown (38.46%), and Nico Collins (33.33%) had a higher percentage of games played with 100+ receiving yards than Zay Flowers (29.41%), which shows yardage upside. Lamar Jackson finished 2024 with career highs in passing attempts (474), passing yards (4,172), and passing touchdowns (41), which is extremely encouraging for Flowers as their target leader over the last two seasons. A bump in touchdowns and continued progression can do it.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Courtland Sutton
Qualifier: Veteran wide receiver with a new quarterback who has little target competition, is hyper-targeted, and excels for Fantasy Football
In 2024, Courtland Sutton received a new quarterback in rookie Bo Nix for the Broncos. The result? 135 targets with the next highest target earner being Javonte Williams (now a Cowboy) at 70. Sutton caught 81 balls for 1,081 yards, scored eight touchdowns, and averaged 14.1 Fantasy PPG.
Back in March, DK Metcalf was traded to the Seahawks for a second and a sixth round pick. Then in May, George Pickens was shipped off to the Cowboys. Aaron Rodgers and Jonnu Smith were also newcomers this offseason, with the likes of Pat Freiermuth, sophomore Roman Wilson, Calvin Austin III, and Rober Woods as the competing pass-catchers. DK Metcalf will be hyper-targeted by Aaron Rodgers, and we saw a Garrett Wilson breakout last season with Rodgers at QB. DK’s best flashes include 141 targets and 90 catches in 2022, 1,303 receiving yards in 2020, 12 receiving touchdowns in 2021, and 17 Fantasy PPG in 2020. 2025 could be a huge year for DK in the same way it was for Sutton.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Jauan Jennings
Qualifier: A waiver wire wide receiver who provides weekly FLEX value as an important piece of their offense
Answer: Diontae Johnson
After three years of being irrelevant, Jauan Jennings found a major role with the 49ers offense in 2024 due to several injuries to the playmakers in the offense. Respect to Jennings though, who finished 2024 with 113 targets, 77 catches, 975 receiving yards, six receiving touchdowns, and 14 Fantasy PPG (#25). Arguably a top three waiver wire add of 2024.
A lot of people will push back on this entry due to recency bias, seeing as Diontae Johnson has bounced around teams and played just 25 games the last two seasons. Does that make him bad at football? Absolutely not. You have to check the resume sometimes. From 2020-2022, DJ had seasons of 144, 169, and 147 targets that resulted in 88, 107, and 86 catches for 923, 1,161, and 882 receiving yards. During this stretch, Johnson had seasons of 14.8 (2020) and 17.2 (2023) Fantasy PPG. Clear impact. Johnson lands on a Cleveland offense this offseason that has Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku and a bunch of “maybe he will start” at quarterback. If I am banking on someone to take on a big role, it is the guy who has had a history of Fantasy relevance. I would stash in Redraft before fighting for him on waivers.
The 2025 Version of 2024 Jonnu Smith
Qualifier: A veteran tight end who changes teams and has a major Fantasy Football season in his new home
Answer: Evan Engram
After seven seasons in the NFL, Jonnu Smith (now a Steeler) had a career year in Miami last season. 111 targets, 88 catches, 884 receiving yards, eight receiving touchdowns, and 13.1 Fantasy PPG (#5). New situations can bring new production, and Smith proved that as a tight end with major upside last year.
Evan Engram played just nine games in 2024 but in his last healthy season in 2023 for the position, he ranked: #1 in targets (143), #1 in receptions (114), #3 in receiving yards (963), #4 in Fantasy PPG (13.6)This offseason, the Broncos picked up Engram after he was released by the Jaguars. Word on the street is Evan Engram could play the “Joker” role for Sean Payton in this Denver offense, which refers to a guy who can move around the formation and be implemented creatively. Bo Nix had a solid rookie season and was in need of a reliable second option beyond Courtland Sutton for 2025 to take the next step forward. Engram will fill that role and should see consistent volume in this Denver offense, which can translate big for Fantasy Football
For more great fantasy football rankings and analysis, make sure to check out the 2025 FantraxHQ Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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