Through the first two weeks of the season, it’s difficult not to see this as a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. Sure, a divisional game is always exciting and anything can happen, but do we really buy it tonight? From a game perspective, just hoping it’s competitive into the fourth quarter might be asking for a lot.
As the Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills, the home team is currently favored by 11.5 points. Based on how these teams have played to start the season, that might be narrow, although garbage time production will factor in. With an over/under of 49.5 points, a solid amount of offense is expected. Let’s dig into my Thursday Night Football DFS picks and rankings to help you set a winning lineup.
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Thursday Night Football DFS Notes
Just Keep on Running
We know that Josh Allen is a force in all aspects of the game. That includes what he does on the ground, and there’s often a real concern about how it impacts James Cook. Last year, Cook rushed for 16 touchdowns, and there was real doubt, I’d say warranted, that he could repeat it.
So far in 2025, those doubts appear to be foolish. After rushing for a touchdown in a wild Week 1 game, the game flow worked to Cook’s advantage last week. Cook carried the ball 21 times for 132 yards while scoring two touchdowns. I’d expect tonight’s game to follow a similar script. And if he catches five passes like he did in Week 1, then we’re in even better shape.
Don’t Discount Achane
Generally, we aren’t looking to target the starting running back from a team expected to lose by double digits. With receiving touchdowns in each of the first two games, De’Von Achane is the exception.
As the Dolphins were blown out in Week 1, he still averaged 7.9 yards a carry, albeit on seven carries. Last week, Achane was targeted 10 times and finished with eight catches for 92 yards. At that point, we don’t need much, at all, from Achane on the ground.
It’s Tough for Buffalo Receivers
It shouldn’t be surprising that Buffalo’s receivers all had a strong Week 1. Keon Coleman (8/112/1 compared to 3/26/0), Khalil Shakir (6/64/0 and 1/12/0), and Joshua Palmer (5/61/0 and 2/47/0) all took substantial steps back in Week 2. Given the disparity of the two games, a wild victory against Baltimore and a blowout of the Jets, that shouldn’t be surprising. With tonight’s game expected to be of the latter variety, I’d exercise some caution.
Don’t Worry About the Shoulder
It’s a short week, so seeing Jaylen Waddle manage his shoulder injury shouldn’t be surprising. He did practice on a limited basis on Tuesday, and it didn’t seem to hinder him in Week 2. Despite dealing with the injury, Waddle still caught five of six targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. With 11 targets through the first two weeks, I’d look for him to have a strong role once again.
Who Cares About the Drama?
All kidding aside, there are some serious accusations against Tyreek Hill off the field, but the focus here is strictly on the DFS side. And despite that, Hill had a strong Week 2 with six catches for 109 yards. Almost half of those yards came on one 47-yard catch, but the veteran still had a strong day. He’s looking for his first touchdown of the season, but Hill still makes for a solid option.
More of the Week 2 Tua
Nothing went right for the Miami Dolphins in a Week 1 blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts. From a fantasy perspective, things got better for Tua Tagovailoa in Week 2. Granted, Tagovailoa doesn’t really open things up downfield, but he did complete 26 of 32 passes. He finished with 315 yards and two touchdowns. That works from a DFS perspective.
Work Davis In
There comes a point when constructing a DFS lineup that salary becomes a real concern. Roster management is a big deal and Ray Davis is a player that could potentially help here. In a similar game last week, Davis carried the ball nine times. While he only gained 24 yards, it’s ample time for Davis to be a productive DFS option.
Don’t Ignore the Kickers and Buffalo’s Defense
While it’s not exciting from a DFS perspective, we shouldn’t ignore Buffalo’s defense or the kickers tonight. You don’t need to force them into your lineup, but if they fit, it’s not something to be opposed to.
Check out all of our Week 3 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings
Thursday Night Football DFS Picks
| Rnk | Pos | Player | Team | DK Salary | FD Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QB | Josh Allen | BUF | 12,400 | 14,200 |
| 2 | RB | James Cook | BUF | 10,600 | 11,600 |
| 3 | RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | 10,800 | 12,200 |
| 4 | WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 8,800 | 8,600 |
| 5 | WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | 9,800 | 11,000 |
| 6 | QB | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 9,400 | 10,800 |
| 7 | DST | Bills | BUF | 5,800 | 7,400 |
| 8 | K | Matt Prater | BUF | 5,000 | 7,000 |
| 9 | WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF | 6,600 | 9,000 |
| 10 | TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 5,400 | 6,600 |
| 11 | WR | Keon Coleman | BUF | 6,800 | 8,000 |
| 12 | WR | Joshua Palmer | BUF | 4,800 | 5,400 |
| 13 | RB | Ray Davis | BUF | 2,600 | 3,200 |
| 14 | K | Riley Patterson | MIA | 4,400 | 6,200 |
| 15 | WR | Malik Washington | MIA | 3,200 | 2,800 |
| 16 | WR | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | MIA | 2,000 | 4,600 |
| 17 | RB | Ty Johnson | BUF | 1,600 | 4,200 |
| 18 | RB | Ollie Gordon II | MIA | 2,200 | 3,600 |
| 19 | RB | Jaylen Wright | MIA | 2,800 | 3,000 |
| 20 | TE | Dawson Knox | BUF | 2,400 | 2,400 |
| 21 | WR | Elijah Moore | BUF | 3,600 | 4,000 |
| 22 | TE | Darren Waller | MIA | 4,000 | 4,800 |
| 23 | DST | Dolphins | MIA | 3,000 | 6,000 |
Make sure to check out all of our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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