Thursday Night Football DFS Picks – Jets vs. Patriots

What did we do to deserve this beauty? I guess having a football game to enjoy is better than no football game, but tonight truly tests that thought process. The New York Jets travel to New England to take on a Patriots team in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. The Patriots are favored by 13.5 points in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game, as the over/under is at 42.5. We don’t want to sell things short, though. There’s DFS excitement ahead of us, so let’s get going. Now, it’s time to take a look at our Thursday Night Football DFS picks so you can set that winning lineup.

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Thursday Night Football DFS Notes

Let Him Run

Entering the season, there was a fair amount of buzz surrounding TreVeyon Henderson. The problem, though, is that the rookie has failed to consistently deliver. An injury to Antonio Gibson didn’t really help things either. Now, with Rhamondre Stevenson also out, it appears that Henderson is finding his groove. At least for one week, that is.

The rookie went nuts last week against Tampa Bay, gaining 147 yards on 14 carries. Henderson had touchdown runs of 69 and 55 yards in his best game of the season. It was the third straight week of double-digit carries for Henderson after he gained 75 and 55 yards in his last two games.

There’s no more Quinnen Williams for the Jets, and that means things are that much easier for Henderson. The fact that the Patriots are expected to be defending a large lead also helps Henderson’s outlook.

Maye Should Keep it Up

I know we’re focusing on the two most expensive players at the start, but it’s a very top-heavy slate. Drake Maye is making a strong case for the MVP award as he’s up to 2,555 passing yards and 19 touchdowns on the season. Maye has added 283 rushing yards on the ground, and he shouldn’t meet much resistance tonight.

From a consistency standpoint, Maye has thrown for fewer than two touchdowns in only two of 10 games so far this season. You can feel confident in Maye once again this week.

Stay Away From New York

While the Jets have to have some representation, the intention here is to keep it to a minimum. That’s not to say we should completely stay away, though.

Garrett Wilson is sidelined, which means an offense already lacking in explosiveness now takes many steps back. For whatever reason, the Jets think there’s value in not releasing whether Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor will start at quarterback. Let’s be real, though, does it even matter?

The Jets are ranked last with just 144 passing yards per game, and Fields has had his share of struggles. That includes four games of between 218 and 283 yards, so it speaks to how bad he’s been otherwise. Whatever upside there is on the ground, it’s not enough to look at Fields.

Take Advantage of the Matchup

The Jets struggle against opposing tight ends as they rank 25th in DraftKings points allowed. It’s been an up-and-down season for Hunter Henry with 30 catches for 377 yards overall. Some games have been better than others, but he’s had a few strong efforts. Based on the matchup, this lines up nicely for Henry to catch his fifth touchdown pass of the season.

Don’t Forget the Defense, Or Maybe We Should

We know how bad the Jets’ offense has been, ranked 24th in DraftKings points, so it makes sense to target the New England defense. The problem, though, is that the logic is already included in the Patriots’ price.

So far this season, the Patriots have 22 sacks, seven interceptions, and four fumble recoveries. For as bad as Fields has been, interceptions haven’t been a problem. The Patriots will keep the points against to a minimum; the upside isn’t here to justify the price.

Someone Has to Catch the Ball

With Garrett Wilson sidelined, someone has to catch the ball for the Jets. Based on the depth chart, the next man up is likely Mason Taylor.

The explosive rookie has shown the ability to make some plays, and the Patriots struggle against the tight end position. While Taylor has four games with only one catch each, he has 27 catches in his other five games. Look for a similar effort tonight.

Could Mitchell Make an Impact?

Prior to being benched following a fumble, Adonai Mitchell showed some flashes of success and upside in Indianapolis. After not playing last week, the thought process is that Mitchell will make his debut with the Jets this week. There’s plenty of opportunity at the receiver position, so let’s see what Mitchell can do.

Hall Should be Busy

If the Jets have any chance of winning the game, let alone being competitive, Breece Hall has to play a large role. That was the case last week as he caught a 42-yard touchdown pass.

Hall has three games in which he’s broken the century mark and is averaging 74 rushing yards per game. While not utilized much in that role, Hall is also a capable receiver. Perhaps that changes this week, but I’m not sure how heavily I want to force it.

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