Week 1 NFL Player Props

Welcome to my Week 1 NFL Player Props article. Each week, I will highlight player props where we can find edges. First, let’s get a couple of things out of the way. My suggestions aren’t necessarily for sports betting purposes. You can use them to help you make start/sit decisions on your fantasy roster, or to find matchups to target in DFS. If you were to place a monetary unit of measure on any or all of the below props, please do so responsibly. A unit is one percent of your total bankroll allotted to player props. If you have $100 to spend, you should spend $1 on each prop. I usually risk one unit on a plus-money prop, while I aim to make one unit on a prop priced at -101 or above.

If you use these player props for sports betting, I cannot stress the importance of price shopping enough. Sportsbooks often have a wide range of prices for the same prop. Winning is the ultimate goal, but losing as little money as possible is a close second. If you play three props at -140 each, and I play them at -105, you are risking an extra 1.05 total units. That difference enables me to play a fourth prop for free compared to what you are paying. These prices are active as of late Thursday night and are subject to change. Late-breaking injury news or changes in the weather forecast are just a couple of factors that can move the needle on player props. Here are some of my favorite NFL player props for Week 1.

Week 1 NFL Player Props

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-105, BetMGM)

For my first Week 1 NFL player prop, I am taking the Over on Joe Burrow’s pass attempts. We should know what to expect when the Cincinnati Bengals line up on offense against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cincinnati ranked fifth in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) last season. If that number seems high, consider that it’s the lowest they have ranked in that metric over the past four seasons. Last year’s numbers were partly because Joe Burrow played only eight games. The Bengals were first or second in PROE in every year from 2022 to 2024. Now that Burrow is back, Cincinnati should remain as pass-happy as they have in previous seasons. That tendency fits right in line with their matchup against Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers.

Just like we know what to expect from Cincinnati’s offense, we also can anticipate what Tampa Bay’s defense will look like. In each of the past three seasons, the Buccaneers have ranked in the top half of the NFL in EPA (expected points added) against the run, and in the bottom half of the NFL in EPA versus the pass. Last year, Buccaneers’ opponents ran the ball at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. That stat includes quarterback runs, which Tampa Bay permitted at an above-average rate. Burrow is not much of a running threat. When he drops back, he is looking to throw. He dropped back 290 times last season and attempted 259 passes. I expect the Bengals to rely on Burrow’s arm to get them a victory in this game.

Jahan Dotson, Atlanta Falcons: UNDER 1.5 Receptions (+115, TheScoreBet)

This pick is probably an unpopular selection because Jahan Dotson has been mentioned as a potential sleeper in fantasy circles, including as a Week 1 DFS value play. I don’t see it, especially considering Tua Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury in Thursday’s practice. I would probably fade Dotson regardless, so let’s assume that Tagovailoa plays. Last season, 26 quarterbacks were on the field for at least 400 passing plays. Tagovailoa’s 6.4 aDOT (average depth of target) was fifth-lowest among those 26 quarterbacks. This tendency is opposed to Dotson’s role and skill set. Last year, 53 wide receivers ran at least 400 total routes. Dotson’s 15.42 aDOT was the second-highest among that group. Obviously, both players were in different offenses in 2025. But I don’t think that suddenly changes what either player brings to the table.

The Falcons have a very concentrated pecking order in the passing game. Drake London is Atlanta’s top wide receiving threat. Tight end Kyle Pitts caught 88 passes last year, while running back Bijan Robinson caught 79. Dotson is at best the fourth option, and I am not convinced he is ahead of either Olamide Zaccheus or Zachariah Branch. Zaccheus had a 7.11 aDOT in Chicago last year, while Branch excelled in the screen game in college last season. Both of those players seem to play more to Tagovailoa’s strengths than Dotson does. Now let’s consider the injury and the matchup.

If Tagovailoa is out, Cooper Rush is likely to be the Falcons quarterback. Rush had a 6.91 aDOT in 12 games for the Dallas Cowboys in 2024 and a 6.51 aDOT in four games as a member of the Baltimore Ravens last season. I don’t see him challenging the Pittsburgh Steelers down the field against an improved secondary. The Steelers have a defensive front that can still bring pressure and force quick throws. Atlanta had the fourth-lowest PROE last season. They also targeted wide receivers on just 53 percent of throws, seventh-lowest in the NFL. These numbers are not likely to improve much if Tagovailoa plays, and they may be even lower if Rush gets the start. Based on these factors, I am not expecting much from Jahan Dotson on Sunday.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings: 40+ Receiving Yards (-125, Fanatics)

Everybody seems to agree that the addition of Kyler Murray to the Minnesota Vikings is going to help Justin Jefferson return to his elite self. But what about Jordan Addison? He feels like an afterthought among many pundits. Addison may not be on the same level as his teammate, but he is hardly just a guy, either. Addison has played 19 games in Minnesota in his three seasons as a Viking. Below is a chart of Addison’s receiving yardage thresholds in those 19 home games along with Minnesota’s starting quarterback in each instance.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!

Translation – if a halfway decent quarterback is under center, Addison usually produces decent results at home. He recorded at least 40 receiving yards in all 10 games in which either Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins were the team’s signal-caller. That is why I am taking him to hit that benchmark when the Vikings host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. You may notice that I also listed the number of times that Addison recorded at least 50 and 60 receiving yards in home games. Addison is plus-money across all sportsbooks to finish with at least 50 receiving yards and is as high as +193 on DraftKings to end up with at least 60 receiving yards. This is a solid opportunity to ladder Addison’s receiving yards.

The Packers are a decent defense, but Micah Parsons’ absence will create a ripple effect that should reduce their overall effectiveness. Green Bay may struggle to bring pressure, which should give Murray a clean pocket to operate in. Since the beginning of the 2024 season, Murray has completed 74 percent of his passes and averaged 7.28 yards per attempt from a clean pocket. He has thrown 24 touchdowns and had six interceptions when kept clean. When pressured, Murray completed just 50.9 percent of his passes and averaged 5.45 yards per attempt. He threw three touchdown passes and was intercepted eight times. While Jefferson should be the primary beneficiary, Addison should do enough to exceed expectations as well.