NFL Football is back, and while there’s plenty to be excited about, there’s also going to be plenty of stress along the way. Week 1 is always a learning experience because we’re still trying to figure out what trends and tendencies these teams and players will look like.
And let’s be honest—no matter how much research we do, we’re never going to know everything heading into Week 1. That doesn’t mean we can’t put ourselves in position to make smart, profitable bets throughout the season. Let’s get into it!
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NFL Week 1 Prop Plays on DraftKings
Kyler Murray Over 22.5 Rush Yards
According to Next Gen Stats, Murray averaged 8.5 yards per scramble last season, which ranked eighth among all NFL quarterbacks. Before he was benched, Murray was also averaging 34.6 rushing yards per game in his starts.
The 22.5-yard line gives us some room to work with, especially considering Murray’s ability to create plays with his legs.
Green Bay could also be a favorable matchup for him. The loss of Micah Parsons until Week 5 is a loss on the edge for the Packers’ defense. In the games after Parsons suffered his ACL injury last December, Green Bay averaged nearly two fewer pressures per game, while opposing quarterbacks scrambled 4.4% more frequently against them.
There’s also an interesting storyline here. Murray will be facing Jonathan Gannon, the coach who was part of the end of his time in Arizona and is now the defensive coordinator in Green Bay.
If the Packers can’t consistently get pressure, Murray should have opportunities to extend plays.
David Montgomery Over 54.5 Rush Yds
The 29-year-old spent last season in Detroit sharing touches with Jahmyr Gibbs but is now getting a feature role with the Texans as they take on Buffalo for Week 1. Buffalo struggled against the run last season, ranking 28th in the NFL while allowing 136 rushing yards per game. They also tied the Cowboys for the league lead in rushing touchdowns allowed with 24. The matchup gets even more interesting when looking at Next Gen Stats. Buffalo ranked dead last in the NFL in yards after contact per carry, allowing 3.9 yards.
Montgomery, meanwhile, was one of the better backs in the league in that category. He averaged 3.4 yards after contact per carry. If Buffalo continues to struggle with tackling and limiting yards after contact, Montgomery should get 15-20 carries to smash this line.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
Parker Washington Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Parker Washington has an opportunity to pick up right where he left off in 2025. in Washington’s final four games in 2025, he averaged 22.3 PPR points per game while commanding a 28.9% target share. He also averaged 113.5 receiving yards during that stretch. For Week 1, he gets a matchup against Browns cornerback Myles Harden. On paper, this seems like a juicy matchup as Harden was an easy target last season. He allowed an alarming 72% catch rate. Among qualifying slot corners, he allowed the fifth-highest passer rating and the ninth-most fantasy points per target.
Trevor Lawrence will look his way consistently. Simply put, this line is too low.
Cade Otton Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
Cade Otton is a tight end we always forget about. However, many things are working in his favor for this matchup against Cincinnati that I simply can’t ignore. There are more targets available around him heading into this season. Mike Evans averaged 7.8 targets per game during his eight games last year and is now with the 49ers. Sterling Shepard averaged another 4.1 targets per game. Otton has a strong opportunity for volume. He played 93.5% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps last season and averaged 5.4 targets per game. Cincinnati gave up 9.7 targets and 84.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends last season. Both numbers were the highest in the NFL. The Bengals also allowed 8.75 yards per target to the position, which ranked third. Otton did clear 28.5 receiving yards in just seven of 15 games last season, so there’s some risk with the number. However, the matchup and potential target opportunity make this an appealing spot.
At 28.5 yards, I’m comfortable taking the over on Otton.
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