Week 11 MOP Rankings

Before another week in the NFL begins, I wanted to take a final look at last week’s numbers. I do this by removing each player’s highest-scoring fantasy play. The result is what I call MOP (Minus One Play) rankings. These rankings help me separate some players who may be due for positive or negative regression. I have decided to remove quarterbacks from the equation going forward. There isn’t enough variance between actual rankings and MOP rankings to make any declarative statements. Even though I score passing touchdowns as four points and rushing touchdowns as six, most quarterbacks have Big Play scores that are relatively close to one another. Therefore, I am only going with the other skill positions. Below are the Week 11 MOP rankings, along with a few players I am keeping an eye on.

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Running Back Takeaways

Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson and Buccaneers running back Sean Tucker each scored three touchdowns in Week 11. That is not the only thing the pair has in common. Each has taken advantage of an opportunity that came about due to an injury in his team’s respective backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson has missed three consecutive games for New England due to a toe injury. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving has been out since early October with multiple injuries. Regardless of Stevenson’s status for Week 12, Henderson should be treated as an elite fantasy option. The Patriots face Cincinnati, which has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Tucker is a bit tougher to project, as Rachaad White is still a factor.

Last week’s divisional matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings provided a glimpse into why I started tracking MOP rankings. Vikings running back Jordan Mason finished last week as the overall RB23 in Half-PPR leagues. He was followed closely by teammate Aaron Jones Sr. (RB26).  Similarly, Kyle Monangai ended up as the overall RB24, with Bears backfield mate D’Andre Swift landing at RB28. Does that mean we should value all four running backs in the same grouping for Week 12 and beyond? A quick look at the Week 11 rankings suggests the answer is a firm “no”. Both Jones and Swift finished the week as top-20 fantasy backs based on MOP. Meanwhile, both Monangai and Mason ended up outside the top 35 at the position.

The reason for this is that MOP rankings are meant to reward volume. Sure enough, Swift had 22 opportunities (touches plus targets) last week, compared to 13 for Monangai. The discrepancy was even wider among the Vikings’ backs. Jones also had 22 opportunities, while Mason had just six. Does this mean that Swift will outscore Monangai and Jones will outscore Mason this week? Of course not. But when I set my fantasy football lineups each week, projected volume is at the top of the list of attributes I look for. There will always be variance, and volume does not guarantee a monster fantasy game. We don’t always have the answers to the test, but if we know what topics to study, we usually end up with a passing grade.

The Washington Commanders have a Week 12 bye, but their backfield is worth a brief discussion. Anyone who has read this column for the past month or so knows that I have been trying to talk to anyone who would listen about starting Commanders rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Last week, there was a tangible shift in usage away from the man they call Bill. Croskey-Merritt was still somewhat involved, earning 10 opportunities. But it was Chris Rodriguez Jr. leading the way with 16. Better yet, he outgained Croskey-Merritt 85-33. Rodriguez is available in 46 percent of Fantrax leagues. It may seem counterintuitive to pick up a player with an upcoming bye, but Washington faces the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys during the fantasy playoffs. Rodriguez could be a difference maker down the stretch.

Check out all of our Week 12 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings

Wide Receiver Takeaways

Raise your hand if you saw Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson leading all players at the position in the Week 11 MOP rankings. Put your hand down, you filthy liar! Before last week, Wilson had single-game career highs of eight catches and 95 receiving yards. He nearly doubled both last week, finishing with 15 grabs for 185 yards. It was a near-perfect runout for fantasy production, as Arizona fell behind in the first minute and could not stop San Francisco from scoring. Journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 completions. Wilson cannot repeat this performance, but he could continue to be relevant for as long as Marvin Harrison Jr. is sidelined. Lost in Wilson’s heroics was a solid effort from Greg Dortch, who finished with a 6-66-1 line.

Were it not for Wilson’s performance, the award for most random blowup game among wide receivers in Week 11 would have gone to Buffalo wide receiver Tyrell Shavers. Shavers caught four passes for 90 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo’s victory over Tampa Bay. The Bills made headlines before the game by deactivating second-year wideout Keon Coleman. But before we get ahead of ourselves, Shavers does not have any long-lasting fantasy value. Shavers is not exactly a blossoming rookie. He is the same age as Gabe Davis, whom the Bills picked up off the scrap heap last week. Five Bills wideouts (including Shavers and Davis) played between 23 and 30 offensive snaps. This is likely to be a messy situation in the future. Khalil Shakir is probably the safest bet, though last week’s game proved that “bet” is the operative word here.

The Carolina Panthers had not one, not two, but three wide receivers inside the top-20 in this week’s MOP rankings. That is a far cry from the norm for them. Quarterback Bryce Young threw for 448 yards in last week’s overtime victory in Atlanta. Young had thrown for a total of 364 yards in his previous three (yes, three) games. He has thrown for less than 200 yards in eight of 10 games this season. Because of that, it is hard to trust any Panthers receiver not named Tetairoa McMillan. Carolina may follow Arizona’s script from last week, where they fall behind San Francisco, forcing them to air it out. But I would caution against starting the likes of Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker unless you are out of viable alternatives due to bye weeks or injuries.

Tight End Takeaways

Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner finished in the top five of the Week 11 MOP rankings among tight ends. He has had a couple of elite MOP games in recent weeks. However, he is still difficult to trust due to inconsistent results. His two high MOP finishes over the past month have both come in Seattle losses. The volume is not necessarily there when Seattle plays from in front, as their passing attack funnels through wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle’s next three games are against Tennessee, Minnesota, and Atlanta. These are unlikely to be games in which the Seahawks will be forced to throw an inordinate amount. Barner has separated himself from rookie Elijah Arroyo in the team’s pecking order, but is still best served on fantasy benches.

If you are looking for a sneaky starter at the tight end position, consider Mason Taylor of the New York Jets. Most of Taylor’s production this season has come in garbage time. And with New York facing the Baltimore Ravens on the road on Sunday, there should be no shortage of that. More importantly, New York is turning to veteran Tyrod Taylor as the team’s new starting quarterback. Taylor is what he is at this point in his career. But he does at least have a better understanding of how to run an NFL offense than Justin Fields. With the Jets painfully short on pass-catching options following the injury to Garrett Wilson, Taylor can easily lead the team in receiving numbers this week. Baltimore ranks 27th in the NFL in defensive DVOA versus opposing tight ends.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!