Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview: Saints vs. Falcons

An NFC South showdown marks the end of Week 4. While Chris Olave and Bijan Robinson shine, Kyle Pitts has disappointed. From the clear plays to the toughest lineup decisions, a full Monday Night Football preview awaits. Who can you trust in your fantasy football lineup this week?

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Monday Night Football Preview

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5) O/U: 47.5

Clear Starts: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Tyler Shough, Chris Olave

Michael Penix Jr. – QB, Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons head into this game on extra rest after dismantling the Packers last week. Penix was not asked to do much as the Falcons backfield combined for over 240 rushing yards. There may be a lot more passing in this game. The Saints are averaging 27 points per game. However, their opponents are averaging about the same. New Orleans allows the 16th most fantasy points to opposing QB and rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA. Kirk Cousins threw for 248 yards and three TDs last week in a game where the Raiders scored 35 points.

In his limited time as a starter, Penix has been serviceable as a fantasy football starter. Despite a big rushing game last week, Penix still managed to score 15.6 fantasy points on Fantrax. Last year in nine starts, the Falcons signal caller averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game, 30th in the league. A handful of single-digit performances hurt him, but he was a waiver-wire streamer. Penix has the same elite weapons as last season, so it’s really up to him to perform consistently now.

The good thing is that Penix does not turn the ball over much. Last year as a sophomore, Penix only threw an interception on 1.1% of his passes, the lowest in the league. The problem is that he hasn’t shown an ability to throw for massive yardage or TD totals. Additionally, Penix does not run much. In 15 career games, Penix is averaging just two rush attempts and 5.3 rushing yards per game. Against a below-average Saints pass defense and in what could be a shootout, Penix is a startable QB2 who has much more appeal in Superflex/2QB leagues, or very deep 1QB leagues. Don’t expect a solid floor.

Alvin Kamara & Kendre Miller – RB, New Orleans Saints

Travis Etienne is on IR. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller will pick up most of the work out of the backfield now, but their roles are not set in stone. Kamara is a veteran who has been able to handle a substantial rushing workload while also getting targeted heavily. Kendre Miller has never had more than 51 combined rushes and targets in a season since being drafted in 2023.

While Etienne led the backfield with 30 rushes and 13 targets, Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller had their share of work. Kamara ranks second in both categories, with 18 rushes and seven targets. Kendre Miller is just a bit below him with 13 rushes and three targets. Solely based on that usage, Kamara would be next in line for more work. In one game with both Kamara and Miller playing, Kamara had 10 opportunities to Miller’s seven. CJ Donaldson is also in the mix, but he has seen significantly less work so far. He’s a name to watch but not worth starting yet, even in deep leagues.

It’s possible that, like when Etienne was healthy, all of these backs cannibalize each other. Tyler Shough is averaging 44 pass attempts per game, and the Saints are always in shootouts. Additionally, Shough has taken away goal-line work. The Saints have three goal-line carries, but Shough has two of those. Shough also tends to throw in the red zone rather than handing it off.

The game script for massive rushing workloads is already lacking. Paired with the Saints’ tendency to throw in the red zone and the mixed usage of these two RBs, it’s going to be hard to value either of them as weekly starters. The Falcons are also allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. Their run defense also ranks fourth in DVOA. Kamara and Miller can still find value in PPR leagues if their receiving work continues. Miller had more targets than Kamara last week, but Kamara has a much longer history of handling a receiving workload. For the moment, trusting 31-year-old Alvin Kamara is the slightly better bet. He can be played as a low-end FLEX in PPR leagues. Kendre Miller should still be rostered in most leagues, but he’s nothing more than a desperation start in Week 4.

Devaughn Vele – WR, New Orleans Saints

The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson with the eighth overall pick in the draft this year. The rookie has yet to make his NFL debut after being placed on IR due to a hamstring injury. Devaughn Vele stepped into the WR2 role and has done quite well for himself. Through three games, Vele has drawn 22 targets and averages a career-high 57.3 receiving yards per game. He’s also averaging 12.7 PPR points per game.

Tyler Shough is averaging a whopping 44 pass attempts per game. Most of the volume is going to Chris Olave, but Vele is second on the team in targets and has a 17.74% target share. Most of Shough’s TDs have gone to the TE position, but we could see more scoring soon. Vele is tied with Chris Olave and Noah Fant for the second most red zone targets on the team this year with three apiece. There’s reason to be optimistic about the TD luck heading his way. The Saints should continue to play in pass-heavy shootouts for most of the season.

Atlanta allows the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs. While Chris Olave should continue to feast and hoard the targets, Devaughn Vele has enough of a role in a pass-heavy offense to stay fantasy relevant. You can start Vele as a solid FLEX, or a fill-in WR2/3. The volume and target rate should remain high while Jordyn Tyson is out.

Juwan Johnson – TE, New Orleans Saints

So far, 75% of Tyler Shough’s TD passes have gone to TEs. Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant have caught three each. That’s exciting for fantasy managers who roster them, though Juwan Johnson is the only one getting significant rostership. Currently the PPR TE6, Johnson should be a clear start every week but fantasy managers should proceed with caution. Johnson is catching a TD on over 15% of his targets. That type of production is great right now but it may not be sustainable in the long-term.

The Falcons have been generous to opposing TEs, allowing the 10th most fantasy points to them this season. That’s despite facing the like of Pat Freiermuth, Darren Waller, and a recovering Tucker Kraft. That’s not an insult to those TEs, but none of them are high-end starts so far this year. Juwan Johnson ranked fifth amongst TEs in targets heading into this week. As long as the Saints keep letting up points, players like Juwan Johnson will be startable in fantasy football.

Johnson leads all Saints in red zone targets with five. There will be TD upside every week as long as this continues. Start Johnson this week and going forward, but don’t expect elite upside every week. A more realistic expectation should be solid target and yardage numbers and a TD every once in a while. The Saints should look his way plenty of times on Monday Night Football.

Kyle Pitts – TE, Atlanta Falcons

After setting career highs in targets and receptions last year, Kyle Pitts has been a fantasy bust. Pitts has an 8% target share, tied with fellow TE Austin Hooper for fourth-highest on the team. Even Jahan Dotson, a WR in his fifth season who has yet to exceed 523 receiving yards in a year, is out-targeting Pitts. Dotson has 11 targets but has only caught four of them.

Atlanta’s passing offense has not been anything special this year. Michael Penix should be an improvement over Cooper Rush, but it’s not like he’s throwing much either. In nine games last year, Penix averaged 30.67 pass attempts per game. Drake London averaged a 35.3% target share in those games. Pitts’ target share was 19.2% in that same span, but things have dropped off significantly this year. Perhaps it was the game script in Penix’s first game back, but it could be a sign of how this offense wants to use him. There’s reason for hope based on last year’s utilization.

While the matchup is there, the Falcons are simply not looking Pitts’ way right now. Save yourself a headache and leave him on the bench. He may be worth holding onto for another week, though. Keep an eye on his target share with Penix in a game where the Falcons may need to rely more on the pass.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!