Three weeks into the season, we have enough information to question our assumptions and still too little to declare every defense solved. Some expensive players have earned their price tags. Others are asking us to pay for the name while the matchup tells us to keep our wallets closed.
For Week 4, I start with the matchup, check whether the workload supports it, and then decide what that opportunity is worth. Money Makers offer a useful combination of opportunity and price; Heart Breakers face conditions that could pull them below their usual production. Talent does not earn anyone a matchup exemption.
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Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 4 NFL DFS
💰 Money Maker – A player expected to outperform his salary and ownership.
💔 Heart Breaker – A popular or appealing option who may produce below expectations.
Let’s shake some money makers and avoid some heartbreak.
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Dallas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks, giving Stroud a good opportunity to outperform his salary. Nico Collins returned to limited practice Wednesday, and his potential return would strengthen this offense and, in turn, Stroud’s chances of producing big. Stroud is still in play without Nico, but I would like him a lot more with Collins in the lineup.
- FanDuel: $7,000
- DraftKings: $5,700
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
On the other side of this game, Houston has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Prescott also has two useful stacking partners in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, each with 25 targets through three games. I like buying into that passing opportunity against a defense that has allowed strong production at both quarterback and receiver.
- FanDuel: $8,100
- DraftKings: $6,400
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford is coming off a 390-yard, 2-touchdown game. This week, he faces the Eagles defense, which gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. It appears the Rams will have Puka Nacua back in the lineup this week, which improves Stafford’s outlook even as it complicates target distribution. Stafford is playing great this week. You might want to watch Nacua’s final designation before choosing your Rams stack.
- FanDuel: $7,800
- DraftKings: $6,200
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
- FanDuel: $7,400
- DraftKings: $6,000
Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings
- FanDuel: $7,200
- DraftKings: $5,300
Jameis Winston, New York Giants
- FanDuel: $6,500
- DraftKings: $4,500
Quarterback Notes: All three of these other quarterbacks have great matchups and haven’t done much yet this season. Maye faces a Bills defense that has proven you can throw on them. Murray faces a Dolphins defense that hasn’t put much effort into stopping the pass yet this season. Winston Plays against a Cardinals defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. If you are daring, pay down for Winston.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
The Niners play the Broncos in Week 4. The Broncos give up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. Ipso facto, you should play McCaffrey in Week 4. The combination of workload and opponent makes him my favorite running back option this week.
- FanDuel: $8,800
- DraftKings: $7,700
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Miami has given up the most fantasy points to running backs so far this season. The Vikings play the Dolphins in Week 4. Jones drew six targets in Week 3. That receiving involvement helps support the play even if rushing efficiency varies. Jones is one of the cleanest matchup-and-price combinations on the slate. I say you play the old man while you can. He is getting it done.
- FanDuel: $6,400
- DraftKings: $6,000
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers play the Packers in Week 4. Green Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. With Baker Mayfield out, Irving may also see more touches this week. After two tough defensive matchups in a row, many people will be off Irving this week. But you can expect Irving to get around 20 touches against a defense that does not defend running backs well. I don’t think you could ask for more than that.
- FanDuel: $7,400
- DraftKings: $6,000
Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals
- FanDuel: $6,600
- DraftKings: $5,800
David Montgomery, Houston Texans
- FanDuel: $6,500
- DraftKings: $5,700
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
- FanDuel: $5,700
- DraftKings: $5,100
Running Back Notes: Love had 2 total touches in Week 3 and faces a Giants team that allows the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. Montgomery is more of a tournament play because of his price in another good matchup. Stephenson is a salary-saving play who controls most of the Patriots’ running back touches. I view both Stephenson and TreVeyon Henderson as tournament plays this week.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
If you remember, I was telling you to play Dak Prescott earlier in this article. Someone has to catch the ball for the Cowboys. Dallas is playing Houston, which has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Lamb has had at least eight targets in every game; that is a 24% target share of the Cowboys’ passes. Lamb has a high floor and high ceiling in Week 4. You cannot ask for more than that.
- FanDuel: $8,500
- DraftKings: $7,800
Michael Wilson, New York Giants
Wilson saw 17 targets in Week 3 and has 31 through three games. That is 26% of the Cardinals’ passes being thrown his way. The Cardinals play the Giants in Week 4. The Giants have allowed the thirteenth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, so the matchup is good. His quarterback has great chemistry with him, and Wilson is the second most targeted receiver on his team. At his price point, you should play him this week.
- FanDuel: $6,200
- DraftKings: $5,500
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will play the Eagles in Week 4. The Eagles allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Adams’ targets have increased each week, but Puka Nacua is expected to return this week. That could reduce the concentration that helped Adams produce recently. But the matchup is really good. If anything, play Puka as well. This old geezer Adams is simply getting it done week in and week out, I am playing him.
- FanDuel: $8,300
- DraftKings: $7,000
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
- FanDuel: $6,800
- DraftKings: $6,000
George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
- FanDuel: $7,900
- DraftKings: $6,300
Mac Hollins, New England Patriots
- FanDuel: $5,700
- DraftKings: $4,000
Wide Receiver Notes: Nabers hasn’t done much this season. He also hasn’t had a matchup as easy as the Cardinals defense; they give up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Pickens is playing Houston, so copy and paste the blurb from CeeDee Lamb here for Pickens too. Hollins gets to play against a Bills defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. He leads the Patriots in receptions and receiving yards. Both Hollins and Romeo Doubs are good inexpensive plays this week in tournaments or cash. I know I can’t believe I just said that myself.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas has allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. The Chiefs play the Raiders in Week 4. Travis Kelce is the starting tight end for the Chiefs (you knew that, didn’t you?) His targets have been up and down, but he has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games. He also has over 50 yards in every game this season. He looks so fast that everyone is calling him Mr. Swift. I am plugging him in everywhere confidently in Week 4.
- FanDuel: $5,500
- DraftKings: $5,000
Isaiah Likely, New York Giants
The Giants play a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Isaiah Likely has commanded a 27.7% target share through three weeks, leading the Giants in receptions (15), receiving yards (124), and receiving touchdowns (2). His targets dipped after the Week 3 quarterback change, but his snap count climbed, a promising sign for his continued involvement. The opportunity and matchup line up nicely. It’s looking Likely that Isaiah delivers for fantasy managers in Week 4.
- FanDuel: $5,100
- DraftKings: $4,500
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
In the past two games, Kittle has 11 targets, 10 receptions, 182 yards, and 3 touchdowns. He is delivering for the 49ers offense. The Broncos are up in Week 4. Denver has allowed the thirteenth-most fantasy points to tight ends, making this a good matchup. If you are ok with paying up at tight end, Kittle will deliver in Week 4.
- FanDuel: $6,700
- DraftKings: $5,100
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
- FanDuel: $5,600
- DraftKings: $4,800
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
- FanDuel: $4,900
- DraftKings: $3,300
Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers
- FanDuel: $5,800
- DraftKings: $4,400
Tight End Notes: Dallas is up for the Texans this week, and Dallas is a bottom-10 defense against tight ends, which gives Schultz a chance if the volume is there. Hockenson is here because it is a really good matchup, and Kyler “Mighty Mouse” Murray should get him the ball this week. Tucker Kraft plays in an offense that cannot run the ball; his target share has been there, and the production will come.
DEF
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks play the Chargers in Week 4. The Chargers give up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Chargers will be hard-pressed to score more than 10 points against the Chiefs. I would also expect the Seahawks to get multiple sacks in this game and an interception.
- FanDuel: $4,700
- DraftKings: $3,500
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay has been a great opponent for fantasy defenses so far this season. The Buccaneers give up the second most fantasy points to opposing defenses. With Baker Mayfield out for Week 4, you have yet another reason to start the Packers defense. Playing the Packers against rookie Jalon Daniels in his first NFL start makes the Packers a great play in Week 4.
- FanDuel: $4,800
- DraftKings: $3,200
Minnesota Vikings
The Dolphins give up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Dolphins give up an average of 3 sacks per game, which is the second most in the NFL. The Vikings average 3 sacks per game. It seems like a match made in heaven. Expect the Vikings to get a few sacks in the game.
- FanDuel: $5,000
- DraftKings: $4,000
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings
💔 Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Jackson’s rushing can still rescue the day, but I am not paying up for any quarterback in a bad matchup. Yes, you should play him for the long term. Just keep your expectations a little lower this week.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals play the Jaguars in Week 4. The Jaguars have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Jaguars have allowed only 2 passing touchdowns this season. Another guy I would play in season-long, but I am avoiding in DFS.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have allowed fewer than 187 passing yards to a quarterback so far this season. In fact, New England has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Allen is the number 1 quarterback in fantasy right now; I am actually playing him in all season-long formats where I have him rostered. This is simply another case of the matchup being tougher than you think
Running Backs
Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys
If you noticed, you can pass on the Texans this season. That is because Houston is a pass-funnel defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Williams may or may not get enough volume this week to be playable. You can certainly count on the Cowboys planning to pass the ball a lot this week.
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle’s defense is so good. They simply are a good real-life defense. Part of what makes them good is they defend the run well. The Seahawks, you see, give up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Hampton may get some volume, but I don’t trust it. Omarion will underperform yet again in Week 4.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams also have a good real-life defense. The Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. To top this off, Barkley hasn’t topped 10 fantasy points yet this season. Bad matchup, almost no production this season. Easy sit. Sometimes this article just writes itself.
Wide Receivers
Ladd McConkey. Los Angeles Chargers
You know what else the Seahawks defend well? The pass. Seattle has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. McConkey will have some volume. He also has a foot issue that needs monitoring. Starting him feels like a hard kick to your McConkey.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Do you know who has had fewer than 60 yards in each of the past two games? That would be Justin Jefferson. Did you know Miami has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers? Did you know Jefferson missed Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury? We will make this easy: avoid him in all formats. That made me sick to write; I really hate seeing him so ineffectual.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Wilson was excellent in Week 3. But Week 4 brings the Bears defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Wilson could produce enough volume this week, especially if the Jets struggle to run the ball. In DFS, I am still mitigating risk and avoiding him.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
New England has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. With DJ Moore and Keon Coleman back in the lineup, there will be competition for targets. Combine this with the defense that is defending the tight end position the bext and I will pass on Kincaid in DFS this week.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Injuries to Terrance Ferguson and Colby Parkinson could keep Higbee involved, but with Puka Nacua expected to return, competition for targets will be high. Higbee will be hard pressed to repeat his Week 3 production.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will play the Titans in Week 4. Tennessee has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing team tight ends. I am not looking forward to the Ravens’ passing attack in Week 4. Look for the Ravens to run and run this week.
The Reedy Rule for Week 4
Let the matchup open the door, the workload earn the recommendation, and the salary determine the investment.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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