Did you survive? Last week my only two considerations were the Chiefs and Lions. Both teams lost. I also recommended fading the Bills, Seahawks, and Packers. Most of that was due to future value, but some of it was genuinely not feeling safe enough. The Seahawks and Packers outright lost, which was a welcome surprise. This week, there are a lot of viable options. Who should you pick to survive in Week 4?
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Week 4 NFL Survivor Picks
Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 and have the best defense in the league. They play host to the 0-3 Dolphins in what could be Minnesota’s best game of the season. Malik Willis has not been able to overcome a barren roster, only scoring two TDs on the season and throwing two interceptions. The Dolphins have yet to surpass 13 points scored in a game this year. The Vikings, on the other hand, rank first in defensive DVOA and EPA/play. Offense has been a struggle, though, as they rank just one spot ahead of the Dolphins at 30th in DVOA.
To give them the benefit of the doubt, Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray are hardly elite QB options. While the Dolphins lost superstar RB De’Von Achane for the season, the Vikings could be without WR Justin Jefferson and are thin at RB after Jordan Mason went on IR. There is genuine cause for concern with taking the Vikings. If their offense isn’t at least passable, a Dolphins upset could be looming. However, Minnesota’s incredible defense should do enough to keep Malik Willis at bay.
The Vikings don’t have any games as good as this for the rest of the year, barring some massive injuries. The reason they are my number one pick is because of their lack of future value. However, I am not putting all of my eggs in one basket. In smaller pools, I am not picking the Vikings very often. In much larger pools, or those where I have multiple entries, I am picking the Vikings around 40-50% of the time. Despite the large spread, Minnesota’s offensive woes are a genuine concern. However, picking the safest team each week does not always help you win your pool. The Vikings will be picked a lot, but the risk is still worth the reward. Just diversify your picks in case of an upset.
Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The biggest spread and the safest pick is only my second favorite play of the week. The Baltimore Ravens are once again in the NFL’s elite. Despite a loss to the Saints and a near-loss to the Cowboys, this offense is clicking. Derrick Henry leads the league with six rushing TDs and Lamar Jackson is leading a top-5 offense in both DVOA and EPA/play. Jackson is not scoring as many TDs, mainly due to Henry’s ability to score on the ground, but he has a QB rating of 113.1 and has only thrown a single interception.
On the other side, the Tennessee Titans lost what was likely their best matchup of the season. An injured Giants team in a rainstorm was still not enough to get the Titans close to victory. Cam Ward has failed to throw for 200 or more yards in a game this year and has only scored four total TDs. The Titans came close to beating a bad Eagles defense in Week 2 when Jalen Hurts turned the ball over twice. Without a lot of turnover luck, it’s going to be hard to imagine the Titans winning against most teams. The Ravens are a daunting foe and should be able to take care of business.
The only reason I rank the Ravens lower than the Vikings is future value. The Ravens are a team you can use as a desperation play late in the season, but they also have multiple great matchups down the line. Most of those are against divisional opponents like the Browns and Steelers, but they also host the Buccaneers in Week 14. The only thing is that Detroit, Seattle, and Chicago all have great matchups that week. The Ravens could be worth saving for either their home divisional games or their matchup against Tampa Bay. In smaller pools, though, I am pretty happy to take the Ravens and survive another week. It’s good to save an opponent that most of your pool will pick, but pool size and settings can dictate how much risk you need to take on.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The best pivot of the week was a fade who lost in a massive upset last week. The Green Bay Packers look bad, lost to the Falcons, and now go on the road against a backup QB that we have no information on. That’s usually a recipe for disaster in survivor pools. That’s why they are the riskiest pick of the week, but not as risky as this all indicates. The Packers played on Thursday Night Football, so they get extra rest in this game. Playing away is not great, but the Buccaneers are a very beatable opponent. Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb, and now undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels will make his debut.
Daniels came in for just a handful of snaps when Mayfield got hurt, but failed to complete a pass while turning the ball over once. It’s hard to come in at the end of a game and immediately succeed against an elite defense. However, there are reasons for concern. First, Daniels is an undrafted free agent. Unless you’re in a great situation with an offensive genius like Kyle Shanahan, you are going to struggle most weeks. There’s no guarantee, but Tampa Bay’s offense has not been good this year. Baker Mayfield has been sacked 13 times so far. And he has only thrown two TDs while turning the ball over five times. Mayfield also ranks 32nd in adjusted EPA/play, only in front of Jameis Winston and Cooper Rush. The Buccaneers offense ranks 24th in DVOA.
Jalon Daniels could surprise us, but odds are that he struggles in this Buccaneers offense. The Green Bay Packers are not exactly great themselves, ranking 28th on offense and 26th on defense, but this is a golden opportunity for the risk-takers. I will not take the Packers very much, but in my largest pool where I have multiple entries, I will take them at least once. The Packers are a risky pivot that can be taken in very large pools, or those where you have to take multiple entries per week. The only other time you would want to use the Packers in survivor pools is Week 15 when they host the Dolphins. That’s another reason I am not totally in on them, but still willing to sprinkle them into my pools.
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings
Survivor Picks to Fade
Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I am once again fading the Seattle Seahawks. It has nothing to do with their loss to the Commanders last week. The Seahawks don’t have the best future value in the league, but they are worth saving for Week 9 when they host the Cardinals, or Week 14 when they host the Giants. There are other good picks those weeks, but you may have already used the Lions, Chiefs, 49ers, or Ravens.
The Chargers still do not look like a good team. While Los Angeles led the Buffalo Bills for a bit, that was because of a putrid performance from Josh Allen, where he turned the ball over multiple times. However, they are still a professional team and could technically win this week, as the Commanders did. I am more interested in using Seattle down the line. While they should win this week, you are better off holding them and hoping for another upset to thin out your pool.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. New England Patriots
Much like the Seahawks, I am not exactly concerned with the opponent this week. Drake Maye has been awful, lost his WR1, and has injuries on the offensive line. Maye will go against the league leader in sacks this week and could continue to struggle. Divisional games are also traditionally avoided as much as possible in survivor pools due to perceived increases in upsets, but that may not necessarily be true.
The Bills have tons of future value, some of the most in the league. Whether it’s their games against the Jets and Dolphins, or their matchups against the Raiders or Bears, there are many opportunities to use them down the line. Like the Seahawks, you can simply watch from your couch and hope for an upset. It’s unlikely, as Drake Maye has only scored a single TD, but anything is possible in football. If you have played in survivor pools for any amount of time, that becomes clear very quickly. Save your Week 4 survivor pool pick for a different team.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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