Three weeks into the season and we have enough information to spot a few habits. Some defenses keep handing out fantasy points like Halloween candy. Some receivers keep getting invited to the party without seeing the football. Week 4 is when we start seeing favorable matchups meet an actual opportunity. You know the definition of getting lucky: opportunity meets preparation. I plan on helping you get lucky this weekend.
I typically start with fantasy points allowed, then check the targets and injury news. These are three-game results, not permanent labels for a defense. A matchup can change expectations, but it cannot promise a touchdown. We look for a useful role in a favorable matchup, and temper expectations when the opponent makes that role harder to convert. Capeesh?
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Week 4 Starts and Sits
Wide Receivers Starts
Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts
Downs has drawn four, nine, and 11 targets to open the season. That is the direction we want to see targets go, especially against Washington, which has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Downs commanded a 30% targets share in Week 3. Keenan Allen shares this favorable matchup as well. Allen had a 25% target share in Week 3. There are not a lot of branches on this passing tree; three players took 83% of the targets. This is what we want to see. Josh will be getting first downs over and over in Week 4 against the Commanders.
Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints
Olave has 36 targets through three games and a 27.3% team target share. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This is the combination we want: high volume of targets with an accommodating opponent. What else can I say? Olave has been great thus far in 2026.
Tetairoa McMillan – Carolina Panthers
Detroit has allowed the fourth-most points to wide receivers, giving McMillan a useful bounce-back setup. His five Week 3 targets were a step in the wrong direction. But this season the Lions have given all sorts of wide receivers steps in the right direction. The matchup give Tet a nice ceiling.
Other wide receiver starts
CeeDee Lamb against Houston and Malik Nabers against Arizona remain strong starts against the third- and second-most generous WR defenses. Keenan Allen is a viable PPR flex alongside Downs. DK Metcalf gets Cleveland, sixth-most, while Davante Adams draws Philadelphia, eighth-most; watch Puka Nacua’s status before assuming Adams keeps the same share of the offense. George Pickens is an additional start worth including against Houston. Devaughn Vele offers a deeper flex option against Atlanta.
Wide Receiver Sits
Trey Tucker – Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. That makes Tucker a player I would bench when a comparable option has a friendlier matchup. Tucker, you see, needs a big play to rescue his afternoon; we know we cannot count on that. Jack Bech’s move to injured reserve could help Tucker’s opportunity; it does not erase the opponent. Keep the role improvement and the difficult matchup in the same conversation. He is an inconsistent player in a bad matchup, easy sit.
Ladd McConkey – Los Angeles Chargers
McConkey has a 17% team target share, while Seattle has allowed the fourth-fewest points to wide receivers. I would move him down to a borderline WR3 or flex and favor a comparable player in a better matchup. This is an expectations downgrade, not a recommendation to abandon him. This week, I would rather give my lineup an easier assignment. The Chargers offense hasn’t been magnificent, and it feels like a kick in the McConkeys.
Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs
Rice’s targets have increased from two to six to nine. That makes this a more difficult sit than the matchup alone suggests. Las Vegas has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, so I would reduce expectations and consider an alternative in shallow leagues. You are probably playing him if you have him, but I would keep my expectations low.
Other wide receiver matchup concerns
Quentin Johnston also deserves a downgrade against Seattle. Use these difficult matchups to break close lineup decisions rather than automatically replacing a dependable starter with a low-volume alternative.
Check out all of our Week 4 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings | MOP Rankings
Tight End Starts
Darren Waller Carolina Panthers
Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends. Waller also drew eight targets in Week 3, giving this recommendation more substance than just touchdown chasing. I like Waller as a Week 4 streamer with TE1 upside. We need that involvement to continue, but the combination is attractive. Short little quarterback love throwing the ball to really large targets. Waller is still a baller.
Tyler Warren Indianapolis Colts
Warren is the third branch in the Colts’ passing offense. Over the first three games, Warren’s targets have climbed from five to seven to 10. He has a 28% target share in Week 3. This week, Washington is up, and they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, so this is one of my favorite starts at the position. His increasing involvement supplies the opportunity, and the matchup supplies another reason to be confident. I would use him as a TE1 without requiring a touchdown to explain the decision. Tyler will be a stud in Week 4.
Isaiah Likely New York Giants
Likely has commanded a 27.7% team target share through three weeks. He leads the Giants in receptions (15), receiving yards (124), and receiving touchdowns (2). The Arizona Cardinals are up in Week 4, and they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. His target totals went down in Week 3 with the change at quarterback, but is snaps went way up. The Cardinals give him a a great matchup to capitalize on. It is likely Isaiah produces a lot of fantasy points in Week 4.
Other tight end starts
Travis Kelce faces Las Vegas, third-most generous to tight ends, but his two Week 3 targets warrant a more measured projection. Dalton Schultz gets Dallas, sixth-most generous; Nico Collins’ availability matters to Houston’s target distribution. Juwan Johnson is my preferred Saints TE against Atlanta, seventh-most. Noah Fant is the deeper option, with less confidence in his weekly role. All three matchups are positive; the players do not carry equal certainty.
Tight End Sits
Dalton Kincaid Buffalo Bills
New England has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Meanwhile, Kincaid saw his target total drop to three targets in Week 3. That combination makes him a matchup fade; you are probably playing him if you have him. Let’s keep those expectations in check for Week 4. Kincaid may get the volume to make me look dumb for having him here, but we will see.
Colston Loveland Chicago Bears
The Jets have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Loveland’s targets are moving upward, but four in Week 3 is still a limited base for a difficult matchup. Let’s face it, this is an easy one. If you were still starting him by now, you might need to get your head checked out. You probably want to hold on to him while his role develops, but I need some proof of involvement before starting him confidently, especially in a bad matchup.
Tyler Higbee Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia has allowed the second-fewest points to tight ends, making Higbee a matchup downgrade. However, his 11 Week 3 targets demand attention. Terrance Ferguson is likely to miss Week 4 with an ankle injury, while Colby Parkinson’s shoulder injury leaves his status uncertain. If both are out, Higbee becomes a PPR start despite the opponent being a horrible matchup. Playing him might depend more on who on his team is healthy this week; if enough people are out, Higbee might get volume. That really makes you warm up to him, doesn’t it? It’s like you are drunk at the bar and found the last single lady to try and hook up with. You NEED those beer goggles to feel good about this one.
Other tight end matchup concerns
Mark Andrews faces Tennessee, which has allowed the third-fewest points to tight ends. With the way Lamar Jackson spreads the bll around, I do not think Andrews is in play this week.
The Reedy Rule for Week 4
Let the matchup move your expectations, and let the role decide how far. A friendly defense helps most when the player already has a path to targets. A difficult defense calls for caution, but volume can keep a good player in your lineup.
Volume identifies the opportunity. The matchup determines whether to attack it.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 4 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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