Week 5 Sunday Night Football Preview: Falcons vs. Ravens

A battle of the birds ends the Sunday football slate. The Atlanta Falcons are riding high after two massive wins. The Baltimore Ravens will be without QB Lamar Jackson. Can you trust any Ravens in your fantasy football lineup, or should they stay on the bench in Week 5?

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Week 5 SNF Fantasy Preview

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) O/U: 43.5

Clear Starts: Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Drake London

Michael Penix Jr – QB, Atlanta Falcons

While the Falcons have combined for 80 points in Michael Penix Jr’s two starts this year, most of that success has come on the ground. Penix has scored 15.6 and 14.95 in those two games. While that floor is nice, it’s not the high-end success you want to see out of your starting QB in fantasy football. This week, Penix faces a Ravens team allowing the 13th fewest points to QBs. The Falcons are at home in this game and do not need to face Lamar Jackson.

It’s possible that this is another comfortable win where Atlanta can simply rely on a great running game. That’s not to say that Penix will not have to do any work. However, expectations should be tempered once again. In most 1QB leagues, you can keep Penix on the bench. If you’re looking for a decent start who probably won’t turn the ball over much, he’s your guy.

Tyler Huntley – QB, Baltimore Ravens

With Lamar Jackson officially ruled out, Tyler Huntley will start for the Ravens. Huntley has been in the league since 2020, mainly with the Ravens. That means that he has only come in when Lamar Jackson has been hurt. Huntley has 16 career starts throughout the years, so it is difficult to get a clear understanding of his floor and ceiling for fantasy football purposes. However, we can look at prior game logs and the team around him to make an educated guess.

Last year, Huntley had starts against the Bears and Packers, where he averaged 16.98 fantasy points. However, much of that production came on the ground. Huntley combined for 103 rushing yards on just 16 attempts. He only scored two TDs and threw for under 300 yards in both games combined. Two years before that, Huntley made his lone 2023 start in Week 18, where he threw for under 200 yards, threw a TD, and ran for 40 yards. He finished with 15.3 fantasy points in a loss to the Steelers.

The veteran signal caller does not have a ton of starting experience, but in his limited starts across six seasons, he has been a low-ceiling fantasy option who can usually offer a decent floor with his legs. The Falcons allow the 11th most fantasy points to QBs and feature a red-hot offense. That could keep Huntley not only throwing but also catching up by taking off. He’s a low-end option that mainly has appeal in Superflex/2QB leagues. Only very deep 1QB leagues should even consider Huntley this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. – RB, Atlanta Falcons

After looking like just another handcuff, Brian Robinson Jr. exploded over the past two weeks. The former Commander has 112 rushing yards and four rushing TDs in just two games since Michael Penix Jr. took over at QB. Fantasy managers may be excited to plug Robinson into their RB2 or FLEX spot, but don’t assume that this will keep up.

The Falcons outscored the Saints and Packers 80-38 but Brian Robinson did not play significantly more snaps. Robinson has played 25%, 47.8%, 26.8%, and 42.1% of offensive snaps to start the year per Pro Football Reference. His rushing attempts peaked at 14 last week and he got some red zone work. However, Robinson has four red zone rushing TDs on just five carries in that area of the field. Bijan Robinson, on the other hand, has 17 red zone rushes and five on the goal line.

Fantasy managers should be prepared for regression. While it is encouraging to see Robinson with nine or more carries in all of his games this season, these high-end weeks may not be common. Bijan Robinson is still the clear bellcow on this offense, and the Falcons can’t win every game by multiple scores. Brian Robinson does get enough work on the ground to warrant FLEX consideration, especially in non-PPR leagues. However,

Justice Hill – RB, Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry leads the league in rushing attempts, but there is no other competition at RB. Justice Hill has 14 carries and six targets this year. Hill is the clear handcuff if Henry goes down and will probably not offer starting value unless that happens. However, this week could be an exception. The Falcons allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Derrick Henry may be able to overcome that, but the expectation is that this offense will take a dip without Lamar Jackson. Tyler Huntley is a capable enough backup, but Atlanta’s defense ranks eighth in DVOA and third against the run. Huntley may need to throw a lot more than he would like against a Falcons offense that has dominated with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm.

What that means for Justice Hill is that passing downs and targets could be much more plentiful. Hill has been targeted 123 times in 45 games going back to the 2023 NFL season. That’s over two targets a game as a backup. That’s not a lot, but it’s evident that Baltimore uses him as a pass-catcher. The Falcons also allow the second most targets to RBs in the entire league. While those targets don’t turn into many yards or TDs, in half- and full-PPR leagues that could mean a lot of points just on receptions. The Ravens have only been in third-down situations 37 times this year, the lowest in the league. That could change with Huntley under center.

In most leagues, Hill is still a handcuff at best. However, if you are desperate, there could be an opportunity for decent FLEX or RB2 appeal. The game script may be the deciding factor, but with Lamar Jackson out, the opportunity has never been better for Hill. Most fantasy managers should simply pick him up and watch his usage on passing downs and third downs with Huntley playing, as Lamar Jackson’s Week 6 status is also in question.

Zay Flowers – WR, Baltimore Ravens

The biggest question on fantasy managers’ minds is what to do with Zay Flowers. Flowers logged three limited practices and is officially questionable for Sunday Night Football. Averaging a 22.4 PPR points per game, things are not looking good for Week 5. Along with Flowers’ status, Lamar Jackson was officially ruled out for this game. The Ravens are underdogs by about a field goal in Atlanta this week.

Tyler Huntley has had mixed results in his few starts for the Ravens. Overall, though, Huntley is averaging 26.3 pass attempts, 153 passing yards, and 0.64 TDs in 11 starts with the Ravens. This has spanned different head coaches, offensive coordinators, and skill positions, though. Huntley is not always expected to do much through the air. In Huntley’s two most recent starts, Zay Flowers was targeted 14 times on 44 pass attempts by Huntley. The Ravens also won those games handily against the Bears and Packers. This week, the game script could call for even more passing as road underdogs against an offense averaging 40 points with Michael Penix Jr. The Ravens may not allow quite as many points as Atlanta’s past opponents, but their offense can go off any week. That would only help Flowers.

While Huntley tends to throw much shorter, typically within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage per PFF, Zay Flowers has been great with the ball in his hands. Flowers has an aDOT of 10.2 yards this year, but a yards-after-catch average of 9.2. Those numbers may go down with Huntley under center and Lamar’s dual-threat ability missing, but Flowers clearly has the ability to win multiple ways. Ceiling may be capped, but Zay Flowers is still a clear start in Week 5.

Mark Andrews – TE, Baltimore Ravens

While the Ravens’ pass-catchers could be in some trouble with Huntley at QB, Mark Andrews could be in store for a big game. In 10 games where Tyler Huntley has started, Andrews has averaged 7.8 targets. In fact, tight end rooms average 9.3 targets per game when Huntley is the starter. That does include a couple of games where Huntley did not finish the game, but for the most part he has been the sole passer. Andrews is averaging 5.8 targets per game across his entire career, so it does seem that Huntley may enjoy targeting Andrews more.

In his two most recent starts with the Ravens, Huntley threw 14 of 44 pass attempts to TEs. Mark Andrews was competing with Isaiah Likely, who is now in New York with the Giants, so his overall share of those targets was lower than in past years. Andrews currently leads all Ravens in targets this year with 24, though Zay Flowers is only two targets behind despite missing a game. The rest of the TE room has a combined eight targets this year. Target competition is unlikely to be serious most weeks at the TE position for Andrews. This is a different head coach and offensive coordinator than in years past, though, so we can’t put a lot of stock in a small sample spread over multiple seasons.

There is reason to expect Andrews to be in the mix for usage, though. Huntley has a career aDOT of 7.3 yards, and Andrews has an aDOT of 6.9 yards this year according to Pro Football Reference. The Falcons allow 8.25 targets and 3 TDs to TEs this year. Andrews is second on the Ravens in red zone targets with three. Red zone opportunities may go down with Huntley at QB, but if they get in that area, he should be involved. Without much competition at TE and a history of being targeted by Huntley, Mark Andrews is a low-end TE1 in Week 5.

Kyle Pitts – TE, Atlanta Falcons

Last week in a plus matchup, Kyle Pitts actually did well. Pitts went from a combined four fantasy points in his prior three games to 7.7 against the Saints. That’s still a far cry from what fantasy managers expected when drafting Pitts this year. Pitts caught all three of his targets for 47 yards in a game where the Falcons scored 45 points. Michael Penix Jr. only threw 20 times in that game, but this is more a sign of what this offense will look like than an outlier.

With the run game averaging 181 yards per game and the defense showing up, there’s not much reason for Penix to throw 30 times a game as he did as a starter last year. Not every game will go down like last week, but things should look pretty similar against the Ravens. Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson, and the Falcons could continue to impress on the ground and hold the lead. Pitts is starting to get back in the groove, and things could turn around for him as the season progresses. Sunday Night Football in Week 5 is not the week to hang your hat on him, though. The Falcons are unlikely to be in a pass-heavy position this week.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!