Weekly Winners for Fantasy Football – Week 1

The Weekly Winners for Fantasy Football article series is my pride and joy every season here at Fantrax. Each week, I dive into every NFL matchup and determine who has a positive matchup that can translate into having a big Fantasy Football week. This typically involves looking at the individual player’s production, the opposing defense’s production per game allowed, the opposing defense’s Fantasy points per game (PPG) allowed, possible game script, personnel factors, and other combined pieces. In 2025, this series was on absolute fire. So you best believe I am trying to one-up that for 2026.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!

Weekly Winners for Fantasy Football – Week 1

QB: Dak Prescott vs. NYG

After playing in just eight games due to injury in 2024, Dak Prescott bounced back in a major way with 4,552 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. George Pickens had a breakout season with 1,429 receiving yards and nine touchdowns; CeeDee Lamb produced 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2023, and Jake Ferguson produced 761 yards and five touchdowns in 2023. So this trio has plenty of upside heading into 2026.

Dak finished with 22+ Fantasy Points in seven games last season, with one of those being 23 points against the Giants in Week 2, who he faces in Week 1 this season. That week Prescott finished 38/52 for 361 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. With an improved coaching staff along with an improved Giants offense, this game script can be positive through the air for Fantasy to kick off the year. Defenses change, but the Giants also allowed the seventh-most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks last season.

QB: Jaxson Dart vs. DAL

Jaxson Dart opens up his sophomore season against the Cowboys, who he capped off his 2025 season against last year. In that game, Dart finished 22/32 (68.8%) for 230 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, rushed for 32 yards, and ended up with 20.4 Fantasy Points. The Cowboys completed an overhaul to their defense this offseason, but last season they were by far the best Fantasy Football matchup for quarterbacks and allowed the most total passing yards.

Through 12 starts as a rookie last year, Dart finished nine of those with 19+ Fantasy Points and six of those with 23+ Fantasy Points. Malik Nabers, who Dart did not even get a chance to play a full half of football with last year, is trending towards playing in Week 1. The Giants also added new TE1 Isaiah Likely via Free Agency and rookie Malachi Fields via the NFL Draft. John Harbaugh leading the team can also be a huge Dart boost.

QB: Tua Tagovailoa vs. PIT

Following the Dolphins’ release of Tua Tagovailoa, the Falcons signed him this offseason and recently announced Tua as their QB1. The market’s perception of Tua feels extremely negative, despite him throwing for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns back in 2023. Tua now links up with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, which makes up an elite RB-WR-TE trio. Personnel changes through the offseason, but last year the Steelers were the sixth-best Fantasy Football matchup for quarterbacks and allowed the fourth most total passing yards.

Ironically, Tua’s final game of the 2025 season came against the Steelers in Week 15. Tagovailoa finished the game 22/28 (78.6%) for 253 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception. A strong start in Week 1 will be vital for Tagovailoa to hold the starting job over Michael Penix Jr. as the season moves forward.

RB: Saquon Barkley vs WAS

Saquon Barkley saw major regressions in 2025 from 2024, in his second season with the Eagles. 2,005 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns were a major factor in the Eagles’ Super Bowl run in 2024, but 1,140 rushing yards the next season were still respectable but under expectations. This offseason’s Offensive Coordinator change, the loss of AJ Brown to the Patriots, and the realization of what got the Eagles to the Super Bowl can bolster Saquon to play closer to 2024 than 2025 in 2026.

Barkley finished 2025 on a high note, with 131 scrimmage yards in the Wild Card Round. Barkley finished three weeks with over 120 rushing yards, with one of those in Week 16 against the Commanders, where he rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown. Barkley gets to face off against Washington in Week 1. Barkley has had Washington’s number since being an Eagle beyond 2025, since he rushed for 118 yards and three touchdowns in the Conference Championship, 150 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16, and 146 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 of 2024 against them. The Commander killer.

RB: D’Andre Swift vs. CAR

D’Andre Swift gave us an injury scare last week, but it was reported that he just had a cramp. Kyle Monangai returned to practice on Monday for the first time since hyperextending his knee in the middle of August, so he may or may not be actually game-fit.  So the health of Monangai, the potential game script vs. Carolina in general, and the fact that the Panthers were seventh last season in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs can all combine for a positive Swift game.

Swift typically is not credited for having a high ceiling, but just last season he finished games with 108 (Week 6), 124 (Week 7), and 125 (Week 13) rushing yards. Swift also finished five weeks with 20+ Fantasy Points last year. Swift should see plenty of volume in this one, and if Rome Odunze is also banged up, he could see a bump in his passing game usage as well.

RB: Bucky Irving vs. CIN

Bucky Irving missed time in 2025 due to a dislocated shoulder and foot sprain, which, on top of efficiency metrics that were echoed by many and the signing of Kenneth Gainwell, somehow made Bucky bad at football. Through 10 games last season, Bucky finished seven weeks with double-digit Fantasy Points, with four of those at 16+ Fantasy Points. Bucky opened up his first four healthy games as the RB9 during that stretch.

Personnel changes through the offseason, but Irving gets a Bengals defense that allowed the most Fantasy PPG to running backs and the most total rushing yards by a lot last season. A healthy Joe Burrow can impact the game script, but Irving caught 19 balls through his healthy first four games last season, and Gainwell will not consume 100% of the backfield receptions.

RB: David Montgomery vs. BUF

The Texans traded for David Montgomery this offseason, sending Juice Scruggs (OL), a 2026 fourth, and a 2027 seventh-round pick to Detroit. Montgomery has rushed for 700+ yards in all seven NFL Seasons, despite serving as the RB2 for Detroit the last three seasons after time spent in Chicago as a starter. Woody Marks had flashes as a rookie last year, but Monty will finally fill that Joe Mixon-voided role as the lead volume back in an offense that made moves to improve their offensive line.

Montgomery debuts as a Texan against the Bills, whose personnel may have changed this offseason but still ranked in the top six as a matchup in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs and total rushing yards allowed last season. The Texans’ defense, along with the mindset to slow and control Josh Allen’s offense, may even further emphasize plenty of volume on the ground for Montgomery in this huge matchup.

RB: Tony Pollard vs NYJ

The Titans selected Nicholas Singleton out of Penn State in the fifth round of the 2026 NFL Draft, and Tyjae Spears had a solid preseason, but Tony Pollard opens up 2026 as the clear RB1 for Tennessee. Pollard finished with a career-high 1,082 rushing yards last season, marking his fourth-straight season over 1,000 rushing yards. Pollard did not have tons of upside last season, but caught rushing fire Weeks 14-16 with totals of 161, 104, and 102 yards on the ground in those games.

Personnel changes through the offseason, but the Jets were a top-four matchup for running backs in Fantasy PPG allowed and total rushing yards allowed last season. The Jets also made several changes to their offense for improvements this offseason, but they are not looked at as a powerhouse to deal with. So game script can certainly be in the favor of the Titans, which might not be a common occurrence this season.  Pollard will need to open up strong to fend off both Spears and Singleton.

WR: Jaylen Waddle vs. KC

The Denver Broncos traded for receiver Jaylen Waddle and a 2026 fourth-round pick (No. 111) from the Dolphins in exchange for a first-round pick, a third-round pick, and a fourth-round pick in 2026. Waddle has historically finished two seasons with 15+ Fantasy PPG and racked up 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns back in 2022. Bo Nix led the NFL in passing attempts last season, and Waddle is the clear WR1 of this group, even if perceived as a deeper core.

Nix attempted 37/38 passes against the Chiefs in the two matchups he played them last season, which even further emphasizes the volume will be there in a big matchup in Week 1 of 2026. Just last season, when Waddle was targeted eight or more times, he produced 110 (Week 5), 95 (Week 6), 82 (Week 9), and 72 (Week 16) receiving yards. Maybe bold here, but I am projecting 10+ targets for Waddle in his debut as a Bronco against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

WR: Zay Flowers vs. IND

Zay Flowers has missed some practice through the Summer, but returned to practice last week. Zay Flowers is coming off of a breakout season where he caught 86 of his 118 targets for 1,211 yards, scored five touchdowns, and averaged 14.3 Fantasy PPG. Flowers did this with Lamar Jackson playing in just 12 games. In 2024, Jackson finished with career-highs in passing attempts (474), passing yards (4,172), and passing touchdowns (41). So if you combine that huge 2024 season for Jackson with the huge season for Flowers, that can equal a big 2026.

Personnel changes through an offseason, but last year the Colts were a top-four matchup in both Fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers and total passing yards allowed. Even with rookies Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt added from the 2026 NFL Draft, Flowers is still the clear leader in this offense through the air. A new coaching staff can find better ways to scheme up Flowers through the air. There will need to be way more than Derrick Henry vs. Jonathan Taylor in this matchup as well.

WR: DeVonta Smith vs. WAS

DeVonta Smith opens up 2026 as the new WR1 for the Philadelphia Eagles, with AJ Brown now a Patriot. Makai Lemon was a first-round selection in the 2026 NFL Draft, but has missed some serious preseason time due to a hamstring injury and may take some time to get fully acquainted with actual NFL games. Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown were also added, but as complementary pieces. The pressure on DVS to open up 2026 hot will be real.

Personnel changes through an offseason, but the Commanders were a top-six matchup in both Fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers and total passing yards allowed last season. Smith caught six balls for 42 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 against the Commanders last season, and then produced 52 yards on three catches while playing just 14% of the snaps in Week 18 in the second game against Washington.

WR: Chris Godwin vs. CIN

Emeka Egbuka practiced on Monday after missing time in training camp with a toe injury whose severity we are unsure of. Jalen McMillan also returned to getting work in on Monday after struggling with a knee injury, that we also do not know the severity of. The irony is that Chris Godwin is the healthy one, as the veteran who has played in under 10 games the last two seasons. Godwin opens up against the Bengals, who allowed the seventh most total passing yards last season and now have a healthy Joe Burrow who can force a passing game script.

Godwin flashed some juice left last season in Week 17, when he caught seven of his eight targets for 108 yards and a touchdown for 23.8 Fantasy Points. Godwin has historically produced well for Fantasy Football when healthy, and connected with Baker Mayfield for 1,024 yards on 130 targets back in 2023. Baker Mayfield being healthy, after dealing with plenty of issues last year, is another plus heading into Week 1.

WR: Tetairoa McMillan vs. CHI

Tetairoa McMillan had a solid rookie season that led to him winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, earning 122 targets and catching 70 of them for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. He finished two weeks with 100+ receiving yards, finished two weeks with a pair of touchdowns, and scored 16+ Fantasy Points five times when looking at some ceiling flashes. Heading into 2026, McMillan can continue growing as Bryce Young’s clear alpha target and as an NFL player in general.

Chicago is projected to be a solid offense in 2026, which may force Young to pass at a heavier rate in this matchup. Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks have both also dealt with preseason injuries for the backfield, which can further push passing. Personnel changes through an offseason, but the Bears were the third-best Fantasy matchup in PPG allowed last season for wide receivers, which is another potential boost for McMillan in Week 1.

WR: Jayden Reed vs. MIN

Jayden Reed opened up 2025 catching three balls for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 before suffering a broken collarbone that derailed a huge chunk of his season. Reed did end on a positive note in the NFL Playoffs, catching four of his seven targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. In 2024, Reed finished with 857 passing yards and a position-leading 163 rushing yards as a versatile, playmaking weapon for Green Bay. This offseason, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks departed to new homes while Reed was extended for three years on a $50.25 million deal.

Josh Jacobs is on the NFL Commissioner’s Exempt List currently, with MarShawn Lloyd and newcomer Kaleb Johnson in line as the next men up. This debacle could emphasize Reed getting use out of the backfield and getting schemed into other creative touches, as we have seen before. Kyler Murray will give the Vikings offense a bump, so Jordan Love may be pressured to do so through the air even more now in Week 1, which could mean a sneaky good day for Reed in an important NF North matchup.

WR: Malik Washington vs. LV

Malik Washington finished 2025 third on the Dolphins in targets earned (65), and might be in line to be the first target in 2026 for newcomer quarterback Malik Willis. Especially looking at the depth chart that includes rookie wide receivers Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, and Kevin Coleman Jr., along with Jalen Tolbert. Washington has the biggest volume profile of the group, as a guy who once caught 110 passes for 1,426 yards at Virginia in 2023. Washington should operate out of the slot, which also can emphasize him being the easiest outlet for Willis.

This Dolphins vs. Raiders matchup is the Super Bowl of bad teams, which can create a positive Fantasy Football environment for the pieces involved. If we are unsure about Willis’ ability to consistently push the ball downfield, we may be able to count on him hitting his slot wide receiver, who has proven to be able to handle volume on his resume. Deeper league suggestion here.

TE: Juwan Johnson vs. DET

Juwan Johnson finished with career highs across the board last season: 102 targets, 77 receptions, and 889 receiving yards. Johnson capitalized on there not being a true target #2 behind Chris Olave, which looks to be the same for 2026, with rookie first-rounder Jordyn Tyson expected to miss extended time. With Tyler Shough starting Weeks 9-18, Johnson produced the fifth-most receiving yards and scored the eighth-most total Fantasy Points during that stretch of games.

The Lions project to be one of the better offenses in 2026, which will force Tyler Shough to throw plenty in this first matchup. Across the final seven games of 2025, Shough finished with 35-49 passing attempts four times. The game script and projected volume are positive reasons for Johnson to be in your lineup for Week 1.

TE: Isaiah Likely vs. DAL

The Giants signed Isaiah Likely to a three-year, $40 million contract this offseason, which reunites him with his former Ravens Head Coach, John Harbaugh. Likely has finished two of his four seasons with over 400 receiving yards, despite operating as the TE2 behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Likely was paid this offseason to play a key TE1 role for sophomore Jaxson Dart.

This offseason, the Cowboys addressed their defense, which gave up the most total passing yards in the NFL just last season. Malik Nabers is coming off of a major injury, and while he is trending towards Week 1, we are not sure at what percentage. This can emphasize Likely being a huge part of the Giants’ passing game in Week 1, where the game script may call for heavy passing out of Dart.